Extended Streamflow Guidance
Issued by NWS Arkansas-Red Basin RFC
Issued by NWS Arkansas-Red Basin RFC
735
FGUS64 KTUA 121612
ESGTUA
Flood Potential Outlook
National Weather Service, ABRFC, Tulsa, Oklahoma
1105 AM CDT, Wednesday, March 12, 2025
COLORADO
-- ARKANSAS RIVER BASIN--
The Rocky Mountains
The potential for flood conditions is near normal this spring across the Arkansas River Basin in Colorado. Flooding at most forecast points in the Colorado Rocky Mountains is driven by rapid snowpack runoff or isolated, high-intensity rainfall.
Snowpack for the entire Arkansas River Basin is below normal. Snowpack is near normal at the upper reaches of the Arkansas River. Snowpack is well below normal along the Sangre de Cristo Mountains in southern Colorado. As measured at high altitude SNOTEL monitoring stations, the mountains of the Arkansas River basin have received approximately 98 percent-of-median precipitation and have accumulated 61 percent-of-median snowpack this water year. A more detailed table is included below.
S N O W - P R E C I P I T A T I O N U P D A T E
Based on Mountain Data from NRCS SNOTEL Sites
As of Wednesday: March 12, 2025
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BASIN ELEV. SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT TOTAL PRECIPITATION
Data Site Name (Ft) % %
Current Median Median Current Median Median
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ARKANSAS RIVER BASIN
APISHAPA 10027 0.8 5.6 14 11.9 10.2 117
BRUMLEY 10594 9.3 8.8 106 10.4 11.2 93
FREMONT PASS 11326 14.7 13.4 110 14.8 13.4 110
GLEN COVE 11391 4.5 3.4 132 10.3 8.2 126
MEDANO PASS 9668 0.3 6.0 5 9.1 8.7 105
NORTH COSTILLA 10598 0.0 6.2 0 11.2 10.4 108
PORPHYRY CREEK 10788 15.4 13.4 115 16.1 12.2 132
SOUTH COLONY 10868 10.1 15.2 66 12.3 18.0 68
WHISKEY CK 10290 4.2 9.8 43 10.7 12.7 84
----- -----
Basin wide percent-of-median 61 98
Units = inches for the Current and Average Snow Water Equivalent
and Total Precipitation values
At the end of February, mountain reservoirs in the Arkansas River Basin (Turquoise, Twin Lakes, Pueblo) were at 66 percent of capacity, 114 percent of median storage, and 102 percent of last year`s storage.
Current soil moisture estimates from the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) are near normal (30-70th percentile) in the Upper Arkansas River Basin.
The U.S. Drought Monitor of March 4, 2025 indicates that there are currently no drought conditions across a majority of the Arkansas River Basin in Colorado. There is a small area of Abnormally Dry (D0) conditions in the Sangre De Cristo mountians near the New Mexico border. The most recent US Seasonal Drought Outlook issued February 28, 2025 calls for an increase in drought conditions over the next 3 months across Colorado.
The most recent CPC outlook for the next 3 months (MAR-APR-MAY) indicates an increased chance of above normal temperatures across much of Southern Colorado. The precipitation outlook for the same period indicates significantly increased chances of below normal precipitation in the Arkansas River Basin of Colorado.
The Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP) model does not indicate a greater than 50 percent chance of flooding at any forecast point on the headwaters of the Arkansas River above Pueblo. The table below contains a summary of some potential maximum stages from the model output.
Colorado Ensemble Streamflow Prediction
As of Wednesday: March 11, 2025
Mar 11 - Jul 9 50% Exceedence
Weekly
Flood 50% exceedence 50% exceedence
Station Stage(ft) Maximum Stage (ft) Maximum Stage (ft)
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Leadville 9.0 7.0 6.6
Salida 8.0 4.5 4.1
Wellsville 9.0 6.1 5.7
Parkdale 9.0 4.9 4.4
Canon City 10.0 8.0 7.5
Portland 9.0 5.0 4.4
Pueblo 8.0 5.6 5.0
Eastern Plains
The potential for flood conditions is near normal this spring. Normal conditions for southeastern Colorado reflect a low probability of flooding. Most flooding in this area is directly related to specific heavy precipitation events.
The Arkansas River is currently flowing at near normal levels downstream from Pueblo Reservoir. Fountain Creek is flowing at near normal levels, also. The Purgatoire River is flowing at near normal levels.
Reservoir storage below Pueblo (Meredith, Trinidad, and John Martin) at the end of February was at 15 percent of capacity, 98 percent of median storage, and 109 percent of last year`s storage.
Current Climate Prediction Center (CPC) soil moisture estimates for the area indicate near normal soil conditions (30-70th percentile) in the plains of Southeastern Colorado.
The U.S. Drought Monitor of March 4, 2025 indicates that there are currently no drought conditions across much of the plains of Southeast Colorado. There is an area of Abnormally Dry (D0) conditions near the Kansas and Oklahoma borders. The most recent US Seasonal Drought Outlook issued February 28, 2025 calls for an increase in drought conditions over the next 3 months across the plains of Southeast Colorado.
The table below presents some southeastern Colorado forecast points where the ESP model indicated a greater than 10% chance of minor flooding over the next 90 days.
Colorado Ensemble Streamflow Prediction
As of Wednesday: February 26, 2025
Fcst Point % Probability % Probability % Probability
Station Minor Flooding Moderate Flooding Major Flooding
ID
ADLC2 44 Not Expected Not Expected
LAPC2 20 13 3
LXHC2 58 32 Not Expected
NPTC2 32 6 Not Expected
*******************************************************
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* This, and additional Water Supply Information, *
* can be found on our Web Page at: *
* *
* www.weather.gov/abrfc/water_supply *
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*******************************************************
SOUTHERN KANSAS
The potential for flood conditions in southern Kansas is near normal this spring. Most flooding in this area is directly related to specific heavy precipitation events.
Precipitation anomalies during the last 90 days have been significantly below normal across much of Southern Kansas, especially in the southwestern part of the state. Anomalies range from less than 10% of normal near the Colorado border to less than 50% of normal near Wichita to near 75% of normal in the southeast corner of the state during the last 90 days.
Streamflows are below normal on the Arkansas River. Flows are near normal on the Neosho River and near to above normal on the Verdigris River in southeastern Kansas.
Reservoir storage in southern Kansas is slightly below normal. U.S. Corps of Engineers data indicate that Corps reservoirs in southern Kansas currently have near 100 percent of their flood-control storage available.
Current Climate Prediction Center (CPC) soil moisture estimates indicate near normal (30-70th percentile) soil moisture across Southern Kansas.
The U.S. Drought Monitor of March 4, 2025 indicates scattered areas of Moderate Drought (D1) and Abnormally Dry (D0) conditions across parts of southern Kansas. There are also scattered areas with no drought designation. The US Seasonal Drought Outlook issued February 28, 2025 calls for the drought to intensify across the western half of Kansas. Drought conditions are expected to persist in Central Kansas, and improve over Southeast Kansas over the next 3 months.
The most recent Climate Prediction Center (CPC) outlook for the next 3 months (MAR-APR-MAY) indicates equal chances for above, near, or below normal temperatures across Kansas. The CPC outlook indicates significantly increased chances of below normal precipitation across Western Kansas. The outlook also calls for equal chances of above, near, or below normal precipitation across Eastern Kansas during the same period.
The table below presents some southern Kansas forecast points where the ESP model indicated a greater than 10% chance of minor flooding over the next 90 days.
Select Points in Southern Kansas
Ensemble Streamflow Prediction
As of Tuesday, March 11, 2025
Fcst. PointWFO% Probability % Probability % Probability
StationMinor Flooding Moderate Flooding Major Flooding
ID
ALBK1 DDC 13 12 4
ENWK1 DDC 11 Not Expected Not Expected
PTTK1 DDC 12 5 4
AGSK1 ICT 15 9 7
ALMK1 ICT 26 19 3
ARCK1 ICT 32 11 Not Expected
ARKK1 ICT 14 4 Not Expected
ATOK1 ICT 19 5 Not Expected
BLPK1 ICT 16 9 Not Expected
CBNK1 ICT 36 Not Expected Not Expected
CFVK1 ICT 21 8 Not Expected
CNUK1 ICT 39 15 3
COWK1 ICT 18 Not Expected Not Expected
CTWK1 ICT 27 21 Not Expected
DRBK1 ICT 10 Not Expected Not Expected
EDWK1 ICT 18 16 11
EREK1 ICT 36 23 14
FLRK1 ICT 33 8 Not Expected
FRNK1 ICT 34 9 Not Expected
HAVK1 ICT 11 5 Not Expected
HTCK1 ICT 54 35 3
HTDK1 ICT 25 7 Not Expected
IDPK1 ICT 26 Not Expected Not Expected
IOLK1 ICT 29 Not Expected Not Expected
LYNK1 ICT 11 Not Expected Not Expected
MDKK1 ICT 19 10 Not Expected
MULK1 ICT 10 3 Not Expected
OSWK1 ICT 46 32 8
OXFK1 ICT 22 12 Not Epxected
PECK1 ICT 17 Not Expected Not Expected
PLYK1 ICT 23 15 Not Expected
PPFK1 ICT 49 30 Not Expected
SEDK1 ICT 16 6 Not Expected
TOWK1 ICT 21 13 8
WELK1 ICT 48 31 6
WFDK1 ICT 22 18 12
AMCK1 TOP 11 8 Not Expected
BRLK1 TOP 12 Not Expected Not Expected
EMPK1 TOP 32 23 Not Expected
EPRK1 TOP 22 21 Not Expected
LRYK1 TOP 24 24 Not Expected
NEOK1 TOP 39 37 Not Expected
*******************************************************
* *
* This, and additional Water Supply Information, *
* can be found on our Web Page at: *
* *
* www.weather.gov/abrfc/water_supply *
* *
*******************************************************
SOUTHWEST MISSOURI
The potential for flood conditions in southwestern Missouri is near normal this spring. Most flooding in this area is related to specific heavy rainfall events.
Precipitation for the last 90 days across southwestern Missouri has been below normal with some areas as low as 50% of normal. Streamflows are near to below normal. Soil moisture is below normal (10-30th percentile).
The U.S. Drought Monitor of March 4, 2025 indicates Abnormally Dry (D0) and Moderate Drought (D1) conditions across Southwest Missouri. The US Seasonal Drought Outlook calls for this to improve over the next 3 months.
The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) outlook for the next 3 months (MAR-APR-MAY) indicates equal chances of above, below, or near normal temperatures across southwestern Missouri. The outlook also indicates equal chances of above, near, or below normal precipitation over the same period.
The table below presents some southwestern Missouri forecast points where the ESP model indicated a greater than 10 percent chance of minor flooding over the next 90 days.
Select Points in Southwest Missouri
Ensemble Streamflow Prediction
As of Tuesday: March 11, 2025
Fcst. Point% Probability % Probability % Probability
StationMinor Flooding Moderate Flooding Major Flooding
ID
BXTK1 28 5 Not Expected
CHTM7 22 10 Not Expected
TIFM7 11 7 Not Expected
WCOM7 35 Not Expected Not Expected
*******************************************************
* *
* This, and additional Water Supply Information, *
* can be found on our Web Page at: *
* *
* www.weather.gov/abrfc/water_supply *
* *
*******************************************************
Thanks to the USGS for streamflow condition data, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers for reservoir condition data, the Natural Resource Conservation Service for SNOTEL data, and the Climate Prediction Center for the precipitation and temperature outlooks, the soil moisture deficits, and the Drought Outlook.
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