Extended Streamflow Guidance
Issued by NWS Arkansas-Red Basin RFC
Issued by NWS Arkansas-Red Basin RFC
Versions:
1
941
FGUS64 KTUA 121722
ESGTUA
Flood Potential Outlook
National Weather Service, ABRFC, Tulsa, Oklahoma
1120 AM CST, Wednesday, February 12, 2025
COLORADO
-- ARKANSAS RIVER BASIN--
The Rocky Mountains
The potential for flood conditions is near normal this spring across the Arkansas River Basin in Colorado. Flooding at most forecast points in the Colorado Rocky Mountains is driven by rapid snowpack runoff or isolated, high-intensity rainfall.
Snowpack for the entire basin is slightly below normal. Snowpack is near normal at the upper reaches of the Arkansas River. Snowpack is well below normal along the Sangre de Cristo Mountains in southern Colorado. As measured at high altitude SNOTEL monitoring stations, the mountains of the Arkansas River basin have received approximately 100 percent-of-median precipitation and have accumulated 69 percent-of-median snowpack this water year. A more detailed table is included below.
S N O W - P R E C I P I T A T I O N U P D A T E
Based on Mountain Data from NRCS SNOTEL Sites
As of Wednesday: February 12 , 2025
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BASIN ELEV. SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT TOTAL PRECIPITATION
Data Site Name (Ft) % %
Current Median Median Current Median Median
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ARKANSAS RIVER BASIN
APISHAPA 10027 2.9 5.6 52 10.5 8.3 127
BRUMLEY 10594 6.6 6.6 100 7.8 8.7 90
FREMONT PASS 11326 11.0 10.8 102 11.2 10.8 104
GLEN COVE 11391 2.7 2.6 104 8.5 6.6 129
MEDANO PASS 9668 3.0 4.8 62 7.2 6.9 104
NORTH COSTILLA 10598 0.2 5.2 4 9.0 8.5 106
PORPHYRY CREEK 10788 12.2 10.4 117 13.0 9.8 133
SOUTH COLONY 10868 7.8 12.0 65 9.5 14.4 66
WHISKEY CK 10290 3.4 6.6 52 8.3 9.5 87
----- -----
Basin wide percent-of-median 68 100
Units = inches for the Current and Average Snow Water Equivalent
and Total Precipitation values
At the end of January, mountain reservoirs in the Arkansas River Basin (Turquoise, Twin Lakes, Pueblo) were at 65 percent of capacity, 114 percent of median storage, and 101 percent of last year`s storage.
Current soil moisture estimates from the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) are near normal (30-70th percentile) in the Upper Arkansas River valley.
The U.S. Drought Monitor of February 4, 2025 indicates that there are currently no drought conditions in the Arkansas River Basin. The most recent US Seasonal Drought Outlook calls for no increase in drought conditions for the next 3 months.
The most recent CPC outlook for the next 3 months (FEB-MAR-APR) indicates equal chances of above, near, or below normal temperatures across upper reaches of the Arkansas River Valley. The outlook calls for an slightly increased chance for above normal temperatures in Southern Colorado for the next 3 months. The precipitation outlook for the same period indicates increased chances of below normal precipitation in the Arkansas River Basin of Colorado.
The Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP) model does not indicate a greater than 50 percent chance of flooding at any forecast point on the headwaters of the Arkansas River above Pueblo. The table below contains a summary of some potential maximum stages from the model output.
Colorado Ensemble Streamflow Prediction
As of Wednesday: February 12, 2025
Feb 12 - Jun 12 50% Exceedence
Weekly
Flood 50% exceedence 50% exceedence
Station Stage(ft) Maximum Stage (ft) Maximum Stage (ft)
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Leadville 9.0 7.0 6.6
Salida 8.0 4.5 4.2
Wellsville 9.0 6.2 5.8
Parkdale 9.0 5.1 4.7
Canon City 10.0 8.0 7.6
Portland 9.0 4.9 4.6
Pueblo 8.0 5.5 5.1
Plains
The potential for flood conditions is near normal this spring. Normal conditions for southeastern Colorado reflect a low probability of flooding. Most flooding in this area is directly related to specific heavy precipitation events.
The Arkansas River is currently flowing at near normal levels downstream from Pueblo Reservoir. Fountain Creek is flowing at near normal levels. The Purgatoire River is flowing at normal levels.
Reservoir storage below Pueblo (Meredith, Trinidad, and John Martin) at the end of January was at 12 percent of capacity, 91 percent of median storage, and 102 percent of last year`s storage.
Current Climate Prediction Center (CPC) soil moisture estimates for the area indicate normal to above normal soil conditions (30-70th percentile, 70-90th percentile) in the plains of southeastern Colorado.
The U.S. Drought Monitor of February 4, 2025 indicates that there are currently no drought conditions in the Arkansas River Basin in Colorado. The most recent US Seasonal Drought Outlook calls for no increase in drought conditions for the next 3 months.
The table below presents some southeastern Colorado forecast points where the ESP model indicated a greater than 10% chance of minor flooding over the next 90 days.
Colorado Ensemble Streamflow Prediction
As of Tuesday: February 11, 2025
Fcst Point % Probability % Probability % Probability
Station Minor Flooding Moderate Flooding Major Flooding
ID
ADLC2 29 6 3
LXHC2 48 20 4
LAPC2 17 10 3
NPTC2 22 6 4
*******************************************************
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* This, and additional Water Supply Information, *
* can be found on our Web Page at: *
* *
* www.weather.gov/abrfc/water_supply *
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*******************************************************
SOUTHERN KANSAS
The potential for flood conditions in southern Kansas is near normal this spring. Most flooding in this area is directly related to specific heavy precipitation events.
Precipitation anomalies during the last 90 days have been mixed across southern Kansas. Conditions have been very dry along the Colorado border. In contrast, precipitation has been above normal near Dodge City and points north and south of there. Conditions dry considerably eastward to Missouri with some areas seeing less than 50% of their normal precipitation during the last 90 days.
Streamflows are near to below normal on the Arkansas River. Flows are near to above normal in southeastern Kansas, including the Neosho River.
Reservoir storage in southern Kansas is slightly below normal. U.S. Corps of Engineers data indicate that Corps reservoirs in southern Kansas currently have near 100 percent of their flood-control storage available.
Current Climate Prediction Center (CPC) soil moisture estimates indicate above normal soil moisture in parts of southwestern Kansas near the Colorado and Oklahoma borders. Estimates are above the 80th percentile in this area. Elsewhere across Southern Kansas, soil moisture is near normal (30-70th percentile).
The U.S. Drought Monitor of February 4, 2025 indicates Moderate Drought (D1) and Abnormally Dry (D0) conditions across parts of southern Kansas from long-term drought. The worst areas are in Barton and Rush Counties in Central Kansas and in Bourbon and Crawford Counties in Southeast Kansas. The US Seasonal Drought Outlook calls for the drought to persist in Central Kansas but improve over Southeast Kansas over the next 3 months.
The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) outlook for the next 3 months (FEB-MAR-APR) indicates equal chances for above, near, or below normal temperatures across Kansas. The CPC outlook also indicates increased chances of below normal precipitation across Western Kansas, and increased chances for above normal precipitation across Eastern Kansas during the same period.
The table below presents some southern Kansas forecast points where the ESP model indicated a greater than 10% chance of minor flooding over the next 90 days.
Select Points in Southern Kansas
Ensemble Streamflow Prediction
As of Tuesday, February 11, 2025
Fcst. PointWFO% Probability % Probability % Probability
StationMinor Flooding Moderate Flooding Major Flooding
ID
AGAK1 ICT 18 Not Expected Not Expected
AGSK1 ICT 13 7 Not Expected
ALMK1 ICT 31 19 3
ARCK1 ICT 41 9 4
ARKK1 ICT 14 Not Expected Not Expected
ATOK1 ICT 41 6 Not Expected
BLPK1 ICT 11 8 7
CBNK1 ICT 41 Not Expected Not Expected
CFVK1 ICT 18 6 Not Expected
CNUK1 ICT 31 22 6
COWK1 ICT 19 Not Expected Not Expected
CTWK1 ICT 48 22 Not Expected
DRBK1 ICT 12 5 4
EDWK1 ICT 22 21 18
EREK1 ICT 35 29 20
FLRK1 ICT 40 9 Not Expected
FRNK1 ICT 26 4 Not Expected
HAVK1 ICT 18 6 5
HTCK1 ICT 53 48 4
HTDK1 ICT 30 11 Not Expected
IDPK1 ICT 26 Not Expected Not Expected
IOLK1 ICT 19 6 Not Expected
LYNK1 ICT 11 Not Expected Not Expected
MDKK1 ICT 22 9 4
MULK1 ICT 14 9 4
OSWK1 ICT 52 36 9
OXFK1 ICT 29 11 3
PECK1 ICT 12 6 Not Expected
PLYK1 ICT 43 15 Not Expected
PPFK1 ICT 53 35 Not Expected
SEDK1 ICT 20 5 4
TOWK1 ICT 27 10 Not Expected
WELK1 ICT 49 30 7
WFDK1 ICT 25 18 7
AMCK1 TOP 18 10 Not Expected
EMPK1 TOP 51 28 Not Expected
EPRK1 TOP 29 28 Not Expected
LRYK1 TOP 19 19 Not Expected
NEOK1 TOP 60 58 Not Expected
*******************************************************
* *
* This, and additional Water Supply Information, *
* can be found on our Web Page at: *
* *
* www.weather.gov/abrfc/water_supply *
* *
*******************************************************
SOUTHWEST MISSOURI
The potential for flood conditions in southwestern Missouri is near normal this spring. Most flooding in this area is related to specific heavy rainfall events.
Precipitation for the last 90 days across southwestern Missouri has been below normal with some areas less than 50% of normal. Streamflows are below normal. Soil moisture is near normal (30-70th percentile).
The U.S. Drought Monitor of February 4, 2025 indicates Abnormally Dry (D0) conditions across Southwest Missouri. The US Seasonal Drought Outlook calls for this to improve over the next 3 months.
The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) outlook for the next 3 months (FEB-MAR-APR) indicates equal chances of above, below, or near normal temperatures across southwestern Missouri. There are increased chances of above normal precipitation over the same period.
The table below presents some southwestern Missouri forecast points where the ESP model indicated a greater than 10 percent chance of minor flooding over the next 90 days.
Select Points in Southwest Missouri
Ensemble Streamflow Prediction
As of Tuesday: March 12, 2024
Fcst. Point% Probability % Probability % Probability
StationMinor Flooding Moderate Flooding Major Flooding
ID
CHTM7 42 22 Not Expected
JOPM7 20 11 3
TIFM7 19 7 Not Expected
WCOM7 45 3 Not Expected
BXTK1 43 19 Not Expected
*******************************************************
* *
* This, and additional Water Supply Information, *
* can be found on our Web Page at: *
* *
* www.weather.gov/abrfc/water_supply *
* *
*******************************************************
Thanks to the USGS for streamflow condition data, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers for reservoir condition data, the Natural Resource Conservation Service for SNOTEL data, and the Climate Prediction Center for the precipitation and temperature outlooks, the soil moisture deficits, and the Drought Outlook.
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