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FLUS44 KTSA 121850
HWOTSA

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
150 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-131045-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
150 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025


...HEAVY RAIN THREAT WITH FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL THROUGH SUNDAY...

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
RISK...Limited.
AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
ONSET...Ongoing.

HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOOD.
RISK...Elevated.
AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
ONSET...Ongoing.

DISCUSSION...
Rain showers and scattered thunderstorms will continue to develop
and spread across much of eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas
into this evening as an area of low pressure approaches from the
west. Instability interacting with multiple boundaries across the
region will create a limited severe potential with locally strong
winds the main severe threat. In addition, with the large amount
of moisture over the region, a heavy rain threat which could lead
to flash flooding remains across eastern Oklahoma and northwest
Arkansas. The Flood Watch has been expanded to include all of
eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas into Sunday evening.

There may be a brief lull in precipitation late evening, though
showers and storms are forecast to redevelop overnight tonight as
the low pressure system moves over eastern Oklahoma. The heavy
rain threat and flash flood potential will continue through the
overnight hours. Severe potentials should weaken through the
overnight hours.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Local Spotter Activation May Be Needed.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.
SUNDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Showers and thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing Sunday
morning and look to continue through the day before the area of
low pressure exits western Arkansas Sunday night. A limited severe
potential for locally strong winds exists during the day Sunday
mainly over southeast Oklahoma into western Arkansas. At the same
time, the heavy rain threat which could lead to flash flooding
will remain over the region through the day Sunday.

Additional daily storm chances will be present for the upcoming
week. Confidence is lower on exact timing and location of
individual storms. Heavy rainfall will occur from time to time,
with flash flooding possible. A few storms may become strong to
marginally severe, but overall the threat is low. Temperatures
will remain mild considering the frequent storm chances.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

$$