505
FNUS74 KTSA 101445
FWSTSA

Spot Forecast for Karst Loop Burn...Arkansas State Parks
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
Issued by National Weather Service Amarillo TX
845 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 CST on December 10.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact NWS Tulsa at (918)838-7838, if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...

Current observations near spot forecast site is temperatures are
currently in the mid 40s with RH values around 62 percent with NW
winds around 15 mph with gusts over 20 mph at times. Min RH values
this afternoon will drop into the 35 to 40 percent range, and then
RH values will increase to around 70 percent by midnight. 20 ft
winds out of the NW of 10-15 mph, with winds decreasing to 5-10
mph after sunset.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 50.
Min humidity........42 percent.
Dewpoint............31 decreasing to 27 in the afternoon.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 7 to 16 mph with gusts to
                    around 23 mph.
Mixing height.......3400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 23 to 31 mph decreasing to 13 to 20
                    mph late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (86557 knot-ft).
Stability class.....4.
1700FT Avg MIX T(F).44.

TIME (CST)      9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........4   4   6   5   2   5   6   2   1
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............45  47  49  49  50  50  49  48  46
Dewpoint........33  31  29  28  28  28  28  27  26
RH..............63  53  46  44  42  42  44  44  45
20 FT wind dir..NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
20 FT wind spd..11  13  13  12  12  11  9   8   6
20 FT wind gust.22  23  23  23  23  21  20  18  16
Mix hgt (kft)...2.4 2.9 3.3 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.3 2.9 0.6
Transp wind dir.NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
Transp wind spd.26  31  31  29  26  26  23  20  13
Vrate kt-ft/1K..92  92  92  87  87  87  87  87  87
Ventrate Cat....GD  GD  GD  GD  GD  GD  GD  GD  GD
1700FT Mix T(F).44  43  44  44  44  45  45  45  44

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (20-30 percent).
Min temperature.....Around 32.
Max humidity........MISSING.
Dewpoint............27.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 5 to 6 mph early in the evening
                    becoming light.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 5 to 12 mph shifting to the south 5
                    to 7 mph overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (2622 knot-ft).
Stability class.....6.
1700FT Avg MIX T(F).46.

TIME (CST)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........12  8   8   12  16  27  42  28  31  33  26  26
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............42  40  39  37  36  34  34  34  32  34  34  34
Dewpoint........27  27  27  27  27  27  27  27  27  27  27  27
RH..............55  59  62  67  69  75  75  75  82  75  75  75
20 FT wind dir..NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  W   W   SW  S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..5   4   4   3   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2
20 FT wind gust.11  10  8   7   6   6   5   5   5   5   5   6
Mix hgt (kft)...0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
Transp wind dir.NW  NW  N   NW  NW  NW  NW  W   SW  S   S   S
Transp wind spd.12  10  10  8   7   6   5   5   5   5   6   7
Vrate kt-ft/1K..6   6   6   6   6   6   3   3   3   3   3   3
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR
1700FT Mix T(F).44  44  43  43  43  44  45  46  46  47  48  49

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 55.
Min humidity........38 percent.
Dewpoint............28 increasing to 31 late in the afternoon.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming southwest 5 to 9 mph with
                    gusts to around 16 mph early in the morning.
Mixing height.......2900 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 6 to 14 mph increasing to southwest 16 to
                    25 mph late in the morning.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (34754 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to excellent (65573 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
Stability class.....4.
1700FT Avg MIX T(F).51.

TIME (CST)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........28  24  23  21  17  14  10  9   8   7   7   7
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............34  34  37  41  46  50  53  55  55  55  54  52
Dewpoint........26  26  27  29  29  29  29  30  31  32  32  32
RH..............72  72  67  62  51  44  39  38  40  41  43  46
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
20 FT wind spd..2   3   4   5   6   7   8   8   8   8   8   7
20 FT wind gust.6   6   8   10  12  14  16  16  16  16  16  16
Mix hgt (kft)...0.4 0.4 0.3 0.5 1.1 2.0 2.7 2.9 2.8 2.5 1.8 1.1
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
Transp wind spd.7   6   7   9   14  20  24  25  25  23  20  16
Vrate kt-ft/1K..35  35  35  35  35  35  66  66  66  66  66  66
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  GD  GD  GD  GD  GD  GD
1700FT Mix T(F).50  51  51  51  51  51  51  52  52  53  53  53

$$
Forecaster...MECCARIELLO
Requested by...David Armstrong
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2527222.2/TSA
.DELDT 12/10/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL david.armstrong@arkansas.gov