090
FXUS64 KTSA 291819
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
119 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 109 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

   - Increasing thunderstorm potential this evening across
     northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas, expanding to much
     of the region tomorrow.

   - Daily isolated to scattered showers and storms expected much
     of this week with locally heavy rains, downburst winds, and
     lightning being the primary hazards. Monday will be the day
     of greatest storm coverage.

   - Hot and humid conditions will continue for most of this week
     with heat indices generally 95-105 F across the area. Some
     minor relief may briefly occur on Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight)
Issued at 109 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

Guidance varies regarding convective evolution tonight, casting
doubt on any one scenario. However, recent CAM runs have begun to
converge on the idea of scattered storms moving south from Kansas
into the CWA late this afternoon and evening. Will hold onto at
least low PoPs across northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas
during this time frame. There could be a relative lull in precip
during the overnight hours before a boundary/ additional
convection moving through Kansas makes a run for northern
Oklahoma. Again, it is unclear how widespread this activity will
be when it reaches our area, but instability and a strengthening
LLJ should be sufficient to provide an increase in PoPs for
at least northern areas late tonight or early tomorrow morning...
an outcome supported by HREF NPs and MPAS models. As has been the
case lately, heavy rainfall/ localized flash flooding and strong
to damaging wind gusts are the primary concerns with storms this
evening and tonight, though some large hail may occur as well.

Otherwise, conditions will remain similar to previous nights,
with lows in the lower-mid 70s and light winds.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Sunday)
Issued at 109 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

Showers and thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing tomorrow
morning in portions of northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas
along the previously mentioned outflow boundary. A synoptic front
is forecast to be sinking south through Kansas tomorrow morning,
eventually moving through E Oklahoma during the afternoon and
evening. Additional storm development is likely along the front
and/or remnant outflow boundaries during the afternoon and
evening, with an attendant risk for strong to damaging wind gusts
and heavy rainfall. Convection will gradually push south over the
course of the day, mostly exiting by late evening or overnight. It
now appears the front should progress through much of the FA,
allowing for a somewhat cooler and drier Tuesday-Wednesday across
the north. Still suspect potential for isolated showers/ storms
Tuesday and Wednesday, but coverage should be much less than
previous days and mainly across southern portions of the area.

Southerly flow returns Wednesday into Thursday, with increasing
temps and moisture for the remainder of the week. Heat indices
should be more manageable Tuesday and Wednesday in the post-
frontal airmass, but will likely rebound into the 95-105 F range
for the remainder of the week as upper ridging moves over the
region. Low PoPs (isolated to scattered) persist to end the week,
with potential for greater rain chances returning by this weekend
as a slow moving shortwave approaches the Plains.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1205 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

VFR conditions ongoing will generally continue across the region.
However there is likely to be a period of higher thunderstorm
coverage beginning late this afternoon through the evening and
then again late tonight into Monday morning. Confidence remains
low in the exact timing but northern locations have the higher
chances through the forecast period and a broad time window of low
chances was included w/ this fcst cycle.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   75  91  71  90 /  30  50  30  10
FSM   76  94  73  92 /  10  50  50  20
MLC   75  92  71  90 /   0  50  50  20
BVO   72  90  67  89 /  40  50  30   0
FYV   72  90  68  88 /  20  50  40  10
BYV   71  90  68  88 /  40  40  30  10
MKO   74  90  71  89 /  10  50  40  10
MIO   72  88  68  88 /  40  50  30   0
F10   74  90  71  88 /  10  50  50  10
HHW   74  93  72  92 /   0  20  40  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ055>057-060>062-
     066-067-070>072-074>076.

AR...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ARZ019-020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...43
LONG TERM....43
AVIATION...07