725
FXUS64 KTSA 141733
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1233 PM CDT Wed May 14 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 353 AM CDT Wed May 14 2025

  - Near record high temperatures possible today.

  - Weak cold front passes Thursday with low thunderstorm chances
    southeast OK / northwest AR.

  - A more unsettled weather pattern develops by the end of the
    week and continues through the weekend into early next week.
    Severe weather potential likely increases.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of today )
Issued at 1050 AM CDT Wed May 14 2025

Surface low pressure was centered over south central Kansas into
northern Oklahoma as of mid morning. From the surface low a warm
front extended southeast into southeast Oklahoma and western
Arkansas. Also from the low was a north south oriented dryline
across central Oklahoma. Ahead/northeast of the warm front,
dewpoints of mid 60s to near 70 deg were common, while lower 70
deg dewpoints were reported across far southeast Oklahoma between
the front and the dryline. Behind the dryline, more westerly winds
and dewpoints of 50s to lower 60s were observed.

Through this afternoon, the warm front is progged to lift
northeast through northwest Arkansas with the movement of the
surface low. Meanwhile, the dryline is forecast to reach into
eastern Oklahoma this afternoon. The placement of these features
along with associated dewpoints will help determine just how warm
afternoon temperatures climb today. Forecast high temps of upper
80s in northwest Arkansas to low/mid 90s in southeast
Oklahoma and the western portions of the CWA still seem
reasonable. The higher dewpoints mid/late afternoon should be in
northwest Arkansas, while the western portion of the CWA should
be west of the dryline. The warmer temps over eastern Oklahoma
will help create heat index values in the low 90s as well.
However, with the lower dewpoints over these locations, this
should keep the heat index from reaching its full potential.
Either way, this heat after a period of below seasonal average
temperatures could create heat stress for those
working/exercising outdoors this afternoon.

For the morning update, have added minor adjustments to max temps
and the hourly temp/dewpoint trends based on the movement of the
boundaries and latest observations. The rest of the forecast seems
to be handling well at this time.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 353 AM CDT Wed May 14 2025

A weak frontal boundary will move across the area late tonight and
Thursday. A few high based showers may develop Thursday morning
from southeast Oklahoma into western Arkansas, with isolated
thunderstorm development possible Thursday afternoon and evening
near the weakening frontal boundary in this same general area. Any
storm that develops will have the potential to become strong to
severe.

Another weak frontal boundary pushes into the area Friday and
weakens, and may be the focus for a few thunderstorms Friday
afternoon and evening mainly southeast of Interstate 44. Again any
storm that forms may become strong to severe.

Showers and thunderstorms are expected to become more numerous
over the weekend into early next week as several shortwaves move
across the area ahead of the main upper trough to the west. Severe
storm potential will increase during this time period, especially
Sunday and Monday, with Monday afternoon and night perhaps seeing
the greatest potential for organized and more widespread severe
weather as the main upper trough approaches.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Wed May 14 2025

Surface boundary moves through the CWA this afternoon with
southerly winds common for the TAF sites. Winds this
evening/tonight should remain southerly for most locations while
gusty/strong winds aloft continue over the region. Thus, will add
low level wind shear to all TAF sites tonight. Another frontal
boundary is forecast to move into the CWA Thursday morning with a
westerly wind shift. A slight chance of rain/storms becomes
possible Thursday morning across southeast Oklahoma into northwest
Arkansas ahead of the front. For now will hold off on mentioning
in the TAFs due to uncertainty of coverage impacting any one
terminal. VFR conditions are forecast through the period with few
to broken high clouds over the CWA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   93  68  85  64 /   0   0  10  10
FSM   91  73  87  68 /   0   0  20  20
MLC   93  71  86  67 /   0  10  20  10
BVO   90  62  84  58 /   0   0  10  10
FYV   87  69  84  63 /   0   0  20  10
BYV   85  70  85  65 /   0   0  20  10
MKO   91  71  85  65 /   0   0  20  10
MIO   87  68  82  62 /   0   0  10  10
F10   93  70  85  64 /   0   0  20  10
HHW   93  72  86  70 /   0  10  20  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...20