889
FXUS64 KTSA 111537
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1037 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1031 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025

  - Near critical fire weather conditions this afternoon,
    especially along and north of I-44. Elevated fire weather
    conditions likely tomorrow as well.

  - Limited severe weather threat for southeast Oklahoma and
    parts of northwest Arkansas late Wednesday afternoon/evening.

  - Impactful weather day on Friday with critical or near-critical
    fire weather conditions, strong winds, and the potential for
    strong and/or severe thunderstorms for eastern parts of the
    forecast area.

  - Well above average temperatures through Friday; slightly
    cooler this weekend behind a weak and dry cold front.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1031 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025

The primary change with the morning update was to increase wind
speeds and gusts across the area this afternoon. Short term
guidance and observational trends would suggest efficient mixing
today will allow for wind gusts up to 25 mph for much of NE OK and
into NW AR. Minor tweaks were made to temp and dew point grids as
well... but overall, the remainder of the forecast is in good
shape at this time.

As a result of the edits discussed above, fire weather concerns
have increased today, primarily across NE OK. Areal coverage of
near-critical fire spread rates has increased across much of NE
OK, with enhanced spread rates for the remainder of the area. Have
opted to maintain the Fire Danger Statement for this afternoon,
though an argument could be made for a short-duration Red Flag
Warning this afternoon... mainly along and north of I-44. Will be
monitoring trends today in case a RFW becomes necessary.
Regardless, it is advised to avoid any outdoor activities this
afternoon which could inadvertently start a flame or spark.
Conditions improve this evening as winds decrease and RH values
begin to recover.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 344 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025

Sunny skies with unseasonably warm temperatures will prevail
today, with afternoon highs ranging from the upper 70s to lower
80s. Breezy south to southwest winds and afternoon humidity values
falling into the 15-25 percent range will raise fire weather
concerns, and have issued a fire danger statement for the entire
forecast area for this afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 344 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025

Warm and breezy conditions will continue Wednesday, keeping fire
weather concerns heightened. Shallow low level moisture return
will take place Wednesday afternoon and evening as an upper level
storm system moves east across the area. Isolated to widely
scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop late Wednesday
afternoon and evening from southeast Oklahoma into northwest
Arkansas, with the potential for a few strong to severe storms.

Lighter winds Thursday may ease fire weather concerns somewhat,
although temperatures will remain unseasonably warm. This will be
short-lived however, as a potent storm system moves into the
central and southern plains Friday, resulting in very gusty winds,
and the potential for strong to severe storms, especially across
far eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. A dryline will
advance east across much of eastern Oklahoma by early to mid
afternoon. In its wake, humidity values will lower significantly,
and combined with wind gusts of greater than 40 miles an hour in
some places, will result in critical to near critical fire weather
conditions Friday afternoon and evening. The greatest fire weather
concerns will be west of Highway 69 in northeast Oklahoma.

Cooler weather will follow over the weekend in the wake of this
storm system, but windy and warm conditions will return early
next week, which will once again raise fire weather concerns.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 630 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025

VFR conditions prevail though the period. The main concern through
this TAF period will be gusty south to southwesterly winds
beginning by mid morning. Gusts of 20-25 knots will be common for
all sites through the afternoon hours, before lessening toward
sunset.

Bowlan

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   83  50  80  50 /   0   0   0  10
FSM   82  50  81  52 /   0   0  10  40
MLC   80  53  79  50 /   0   0  10  10
BVO   83  43  78  46 /   0   0   0  10
FYV   81  46  80  48 /   0   0   0  40
BYV   80  51  78  51 /   0   0   0  50
MKO   81  51  81  50 /   0   0   0  20
MIO   80  49  78  50 /   0   0   0  20
F10   81  51  82  48 /   0   0  10  10
HHW   78  52  76  48 /   0   0  20  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...04