376
FXUS64 KTSA 281724
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1224 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 346 AM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

   - Hot and humid conditions will continue for the next week with
     heat indices of 95-105 F across the area.

   - Daily scattered showers and storms expected much of the next
     week with locally heavy rains and downburst winds the primary
     hazards.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of today )
Issued at 1022 AM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

Widespread morning convection has produced an extensive cold pool
with the outflow boundary generally along Interstate 40 and arcing
northwestward through north central OK. Persistent upglide with SW
oriented low level jet has maintained numerous showers across NE
OK and the overall complex continues to slowly move eastward.
Associated MCV will be a source of lift this afternoon as
continues continue to destabilize outside of the rain cooled
influence. Expect scattered storms to redevelop through the
afternoon with the higher coverage from SE OK through western AR
and points eastward. Forecast will adjust for observed trends but
the afternoon forecast generally reflects the mentioned scenario.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 346 AM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

Daily shower and thunderstorm chances will persist through the
upcoming week, with an uptick in shower and storm coverage early
next week as a weak frontal boundary sags south into the area.
Locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds will be the main threats
with the storms. Precipitation coverage will wane during the
latter half of next week, but at least isolated convection is
likely each day. Temperatures will remain near the seasonal
averages, with most places seeing highs in the low to mid 90s and
lows in the low to mid 70s each day. Afternoon heat index values
will range from 95 to 105 each day.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

Scattered showers remain from the early morning convection with
additional isolated to scattered storms likely this afternoon from
SE OK through NW AR. Coverage is uncertain but with continued
destabilization through the afternoon and presence of MCV the
forecast will retain of flight impacts. Guidance is generally
quiet from precip overnight into early Sunday. Possibly some
patchy fog but will later forecasts address this potential.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   89  75  93  76 /  70  10  20  30
FSM   92  74  94  75 /  50  10  20  10
MLC   92  75  94  76 /  30  10  10  10
BVO   90  73  93  72 /  50  20  20  50
FYV   88  71  92  71 /  60  20  40  20
BYV   86  71  91  73 /  70  20  50  30
MKO   91  74  94  75 /  70  10  20  20
MIO   89  73  92  72 /  70  30  40  50
F10   92  75  93  74 /  30  10  20  20
HHW   93  74  93  75 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...07