873
FXUS64 KTSA 140128
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
828 PM CDT Tue May 13 2025

...New SHORT TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 215 PM CDT Tue May 13 2025

  - Near record high temps possible Wednesday.

  - Weak cold front passes Thursday with low thunderstorm chances
    far E OK / NW AR.

  - A more unsettled weather pattern develops by the end of the
    week and continues through the weekend into early next week.
    Severe weather potential likely increases.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of tonight)
Issued at 828 PM CDT Tue May 13 2025

The current forecast remains in good shape. No significant
updates are expected through the night. Southeast winds will stay
light, but elevated enough to prevent any type of fog formation
overnight. Temperatures will stay mild and bottom out in the
mid-60s by sunrise Wednesday for most locations.

Mejia

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Tuesday)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Tue May 13 2025

Low level thermal ridge expands across the region Wednesday and
the dryline will attempt to mix into E OK by mid afternoon. Near
record high temps are possible where winds can become west of
south and dewpoints fall appreciably. The eastward extent of this
airmass change is more uncertain with widely varying solutions.
The forecast will trend slightly warmer generally along and west
of Highway 75 for Wednesday afternoon and forecast temps will be
near record highs for the day. Higher dewpoints further east will
compensate for somewhat cooler temps and maintain an early season
heat stress day area wide.

Weak cold front passes Wednesday night through Thursday with the
boundary likely extending from far NW AR into SE OK by late
afternoon. Expect a broad fetch of thickening mid level moisture
ahead of the boundary and isolated early day high based showers
are possible. Conditions will become increasingly unstable and
weakly capped along the boundary by mid afternoon however low
level convergence will be weak. The bulk of guidance favors
locations further east for storm development during the evening
hours but at least a low chance should remain along the front
through early afternoon before it pushes east of the forecast
area.

The Thursday boundary looses definition by Friday as another weak
front is expected to move into the region by Friday afternoon.
Storm chances will develop Friday primarily along and southeast of
Interstate 44. Sufficient instability and shear will be present by
Friday afternoon and evening to support a risk of severe weather
with any storms that develop.

The warm unstable sector expands north and westward by Saturday
and largely remains in place into early next week. Multiple
shortwave troughs are expected to cross the Plains during this
time frame and daily thunderstorm chances will exist. It appears
likely that several periods of severe weather potential will
develop over the weekend through early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 537 PM CDT Tue May 13 2025

VFR conditions will prevail thru the period. Some scattered low
cloud is possible in and around the NE OK TAF sites around
daybreak Wednesday, but a cig is not expected. Inserted TEMPO
mention for an FYI to pilots. South to southeast winds will become
southwest during the afternoon at the E OK sites on Wednesday and
will be gusty. Some passing high cloud will be observed also.

Lacy

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   65  92  68  85 /   0   0   0  10
FSM   67  92  72  90 /   0   0   0  10
MLC   67  92  71  86 /   0   0   0  10
BVO   62  90  62  85 /   0   0   0  10
FYV   64  88  70  86 /   0   0   0  10
BYV   64  87  71  88 /   0   0   0  10
MKO   66  91  71  86 /   0   0   0  10
MIO   66  87  69  84 /   0   0   0  10
F10   65  94  69  86 /   0   0   0  10
HHW   67  93  72  88 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...30