311
FXUS64 KTSA 031054
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
554 AM CDT Sun May 3 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 553 AM CDT Sun May 3 2026

 - South winds and a warming trend return Sunday.

 - Thunderstorm chances return for the first part of the work
   week. Some severe weather potential may exist with details to
   be refined in later forecasts.

 - Below normal temperatures briefly return mid-week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Sunday)
Issued at 1133 PM CDT Sat May 2 2026

Gusty south winds return Sunday, and temperatures will respond by
warming to above normal levels. Afternoon highs will mostly be in
the upper 70s to lower 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 1133 PM CDT Sat May 2 2026

Another windy and warm day is on tap Monday, with an increase in
high level cloudiness and a gradual increase in low level
moisture as well. Shower and thunderstorm chances return to parts
of northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas Monday night and
early Tuesday, but the better chances will likely remain north
and east of our area. Elevated instability may be sufficient for
hail with any storms that do develop Monday night.

A strong cold front will move across the area Tuesday and Tuesday
evening, with shower and thunderstorm chances increasing both
ahead and behind the frontal boundary. Some severe weather
potential will exist at this time, but the quick movement of the
frontal boundary makes the extent of the threat unclear at this
time.

Rain chances linger into the day Wednesday, with temperatures well
below normal for early May. After a chilly night Wednesday night,
a quick warmup begins Thursday, with above normal temperatures
returning by Friday into next weekend. Rain chances may also
increase next weekend as another frontal boundary approaches from
the north.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 553 AM CDT Sun May 3 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. Clear skies
will continue through Sunday afternoon, with just a few high
clouds possible by late evening. Winds will be light and variable
for the next few hours, becoming breezy out of the south to
southwest by mid morning. Areas of low level wind shear may begin
to develop late this evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   83  61  82  66 /   0   0   0  30
FSM   82  58  82  64 /   0   0   0  20
MLC   82  59  81  68 /   0   0   0  10
BVO   83  58  83  61 /   0   0  10  30
FYV   78  54  80  63 /   0   0   0  40
BYV   77  58  79  63 /   0   0   0  50
MKO   82  59  80  66 /   0   0   0  20
MIO   79  59  79  62 /   0   0  10  50
F10   82  59  80  67 /   0   0   0  20
HHW   81  56  80  66 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...06