983
FXUS64 KTSA 151152
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
552 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 552 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

 - Gusty north winds Sunday morning weaken Sunday evening allowing
   for a potential for fog development late Sunday night.

 - Increased fire weather concerns return Monday through Thursday,
   with well above normal temperatures, low humidity, and windy
   conditions.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Sunday)
Issued at 1030 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

Slow moving upper low is currently tracking eastward just south
of the Red River across north Texas. Additionally, surface
analysis shows a frontal boundary pushing southeast through
eastern Oklahoma and about to enter northwest Arkansas. Scattered
light showers or drizzle will remain possible near and ahead of
the frontal boundary through the overnight hours as it tracks
through the region. Additional rainfall amounts will remain
limited overall, though an isolated thunderstorm or two could
bring some locally heavier rainfall across southeast Oklahoma.
Breezy northerly winds will pick up behind the front into Sunday
morning. Rain chances will also end from west to east overnight
behind the front as the shortwave exits the area.

Skies clear from west to east throughout the morning and early
afternoon Sunday while wind gradually die off as surface high
pressure settled over the region. Post frontal temperatures will
still be well above normal Sunday afternoon with highs generally
in the low to mid 60s.

Bowlan

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 1030 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

Clear skies, light winds, and adequate low level moisture in place
over the region Sunday night under surface high pressure will
likely lead to some areas of fog development, especially in
locations that saw more rain this weekend. Portions of southeast
Oklahoma into west central Arkansas look to be best suited for fog
Sunday night as northeast Oklahoma could see an increase in
southwesterly winds after midnight as the surface high shifts
eastward.

Attention will then turn mainly toward fire weather conditions
through much of the next week as well above normal temperatures
will continue with breezy and dry conditions. Dewpoints will
remain rather high through Monday and Tuesday which should help
limit the fire weather potential some. Still warm and windy
conditions will develop both afternoons which combined with drying
fuels will raise fire spread rates. Widespread cloud cover on
Tuesday could also play a role in limiting the potential by
keeping wind speeds from reaching their full potential.

A surface pressure trough looks to move through on Wednesday,
bringing in lower dewpoint air and thus much more favorable RH
conditions for fire initiation. Winds will likely be a little
lighter on Wednesday and Thursday, but the drier air will keep
elevated fire concerns going into Thursday as well. A cold front
is still on track for later in the week, bringing some slightly
cooler air to the region along with some very low rain chances
into the first part of next weekend.

Bowlan

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 552 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

MVFR ceilings in eastern Oklahoma and the LIFR/IFR ceilings in
northwest Arkansas are expected to improve through the morning
hours. Late morning into early afternoon latest thinking is for
cloud cover to scatter out with some passing high clouds tonight.
Also this morning, gusty northerly winds should begin to weaken
this afternoon as surface high pressure moves over the CWA. Light
winds tonight combined with recent rains will help to create the
potential for fog development overnight tonight into early Monday
morning. The greater potential for reduced visibility is across
southeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas TAF sites.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   65  43  74  54 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   67  41  72  47 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   64  42  72  54 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   65  38  74  49 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   62  38  70  49 /  10   0   0   0
BYV   60  39  69  50 /  10   0   0   0
MKO   65  41  70  51 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   63  41  69  52 /   0   0   0   0
F10   65  41  72  53 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   63  42  69  49 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...20