434
FXUS64 KTSA 222340
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
640 PM CDT Thu May 22 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 215 PM CDT Thu May 22 2025

  - Storm coverage decreases for much of the overnight hours.
    Additional storms develop Friday and continue through Friday
    night with both a severe and flooding risk.

  - Thunderstorms with increasing severe risk develop Saturday.
    Heavy rainfall accumulations steadily increase.

  - Widespread showers and storms Sunday through Sunday night and
    may persist through the day Monday. Severe weather potential
    remains.

  - Concern increasing for a rather widespread heavy rainfall
    footprint through Monday across portions of E OK and NW AR.
    The holiday weekend will have many outdoor activities and the
    prolonged heavy rainfall potential may expose many to
    increasing flood risk. Flood safety awareness will be a focus.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Thu May 22 2025

Widespread precip today will reinforce a stable layer that will
serve as an upglide corridor through the overnight hours, however
the stronger low level jet axis is forecast to remain west of the
region. The weaker forcing is expected to keep overnight precip
chances rather low but non zero.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Thursday)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Thu May 22 2025

Convection expected to develop to the northwest of the region
early Friday and spread southeastward into the forecast area by
afternoon with additional storms possible along remnant boundaries
to our west. The combination likely yields a complex convection
evolution, but the background environment of an expanding
reservoir of strongly unstable air into the area will raise
severe weather potential from Friday afternoon and continuing into
Friday night. Heavy rainfall totals will steadily accumulate
especially Friday night as a broad corridor of heavier rains
develops.

Saturday continues to appear a higher conditional severe threat as
flow aloft becomes more westerly and a dryline sharpens through
western OK. The strongly unstable airmass will continue to expand
in coverage east of the dryline and south of the remnant
outflow boundary. Storms will develop along these boundaries
amidst sufficient shear to support severe weather which will
persist through Saturday night.

A more defined synoptic front is expected to be the focus Sunday
through Sunday night and likely marks the most widespread
convective coverage across the forecast area. The 12z Corpus
Christi, TX sounding sampled seasonally anomalous precipitable
water values with this airmass spreading northward through the
weekend. The result of multiple rounds of strong convection within
a highly moist airmass raises concerns for a rather broad
footprint of excessive rainfall through Monday. The holiday
weekend will mark plenty of outdoor activities and could expose
many to the increased flooding risk. Flood safety aware will be
instrumental to public safety through the weekend.

Latest guidance keeps the pattern unsettled through early next
week before potential drying by mid to late next week. Temps below
normal continue to appear likely.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 640 PM CDT Thu May 22 2025

Scattered to broken mid/high clouds along with northeast to
southeasterly winds are forecast through the TAF period across
the CWA. Slight chances for showers/storms remains tonight into
Friday morning across mainly eastern Oklahoma, though with limited
potential coverage will keep a mention out of TAFs at this time.
Precip potential increases Friday afternoon and will continue
Prob30 groups for timing across northeast Oklahoma and far
northwest Arkansas. The greater convection potential looks to set
up outside of this TAF period Friday night. VFR conditions are
forecast through the period.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   57  77  64  79 /  20  60  80  60
FSM   61  81  64  82 /  20  20  60  50
MLC   62  84  68  86 /  30  30  40  20
BVO   52  75  59  74 /  20  60  90  60
FYV   54  77  59  76 /  20  40  80  70
BYV   53  73  58  72 /  20  40  90  80
MKO   59  78  63  80 /  20  40  70  50
MIO   53  73  59  74 /  20  60  90  80
F10   60  80  64  83 /  20  40  60  40
HHW   65  85  70  87 /  30  10  20  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch from late Friday night through Monday evening for
     OKZ054>072.

AR...Flood Watch from late Friday night through Monday evening for
     ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...20