481
FXUS64 KTSA 160216
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
916 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 916 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

 - Low-medium afternoon thunderstorm chances continue Thursday and
   Friday.

 - Drier and hotter conditions return by this weekend into early
   next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 916 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Much of the earlier convection has dissipated on schedule this
evening. Small convective band sern OK persists and current CAMs
indicates this area will also gradually wane next couple hours as it
drifts slowly northeastward. Made slight adjustments to ongoing
forecast to reflect current and short-term expected convective
trends.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 1137 AM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

A mid-upper level low is currently moving overhead with showers
and thunderstorms common across the forecast area. Generally weak
flow has led to slow storm motions and instances of minor flash
flooding this morning. Expect this threat to persist through the
day as deep moisture continues to expand into the area with
efficient rainfall rates...especially across far E OK and NW AR
zones. Severe weather is unlikely, but gusty downburst winds will
be possible with any stronger cells that develop this
afternoon/early evening. Convection will begin to decrease after
sundown as the atmosphere stabilizes, though guidance indicates an
area of mid-level vorticity may act as a focus for additional
precipitation overnight as it lifts into far NE OK and NW AR. Will
maintain low PoPs to cover this potential, though currently not
expecting much in the way of impacts. Low temperatures should end
up fairly similar to last night, within a few degrees of 70 for
most locations.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Wednesday)
Issued at 1137 AM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Diurnal showers and thunderstorms are expected again Thursday as
weak troughing and deep moisture persists. Heavy rainfall and
brief, gusty winds will remain the primary weather hazards. Upper
level ridging will gradually expand into the area Friday into this
weekend. While isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
will be possible again Friday afternoon, coverage should be less
with a drying trend likely going into this weekend. The increasing
influence from upper ridging will also produce warming
temperatures for the area, with many locations climbing into the
mid-upper 90s by early next week. This will result in heat index
values once again exceeding 100-105 degrees for portions of NE OK
and W-Central AR. Details vary going into mid week, though some
form of ridging will likely remain nearby, even if periods of
weakness allow for slightly cooler temperatures and/or rain
chances again. Overall, nothing too abnormal for July.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 636 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms continue this
evening across much of eastern Oklahoma and northwestern Arkansas,
and high probability of impacting most sites for the next couple
horus before quickly waning this evening. Some fog continues to look
possible late tonight, especially nwrn AR. Skies aren`t expected to
clear out overnight, and abundant mid/high cloud should keep VSBY
from going below IFR. Diurnal convection should be less widespread
Thursday afternoon, and most likely nwrn AR, so carried PROB30 groups
after 16/18z those sites. Light wind tonight becomes south to
southwest wind at generally less than 10kt Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   72  91  74  93 /  50  10   0  10
FSM   72  91  73  93 /  60  10   0  10
MLC   71  89  72  91 /  30  20  10  20
BVO   69  90  72  92 /  40  10   0  10
FYV   68  87  70  89 /  60  20  10  10
BYV   68  85  70  89 /  40  40   0  10
MKO   70  89  72  90 /  60  10   0  10
MIO   70  88  72  91 /  50  30  10  10
F10   69  89  71  90 /  50  20  10  20
HHW   71  88  71  89 /  20  20  10  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...43
LONG TERM....43
AVIATION...69