666
FXUS64 KTSA 231122
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
622 AM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1211 AM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025

 - Small shower/storm chances for northeast Oklahoma with a
   frontal boundary moving into the region Saturday
   afternoon/evening.

 - Medium rain chances (30-60%) enter the forecast Sunday night through
   much of next week with an increasing heavy rainfall threat.

 - Well below normal temperatures forecast for the last week of
   August.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 1218 AM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025

A broad area of low pressure just north of the Great Lakes region
was helping to push a frontal boundary, positioned from the Central
Plains to the Upper Midwest, south/southeast early Saturday morning.
At the same time, the ridge of high pressure was beginning to become
oriented more northwest to southeast, centered over the Desert
Southwest, in response to the mid/upper level trof axis extending
into the Plains. Scattered showers and a few storms remained near
the frontal boundary and could approach the Oklahoma Kansas border
around sunrise Saturday. For now will keep PoPs below mentionable
criteria, though will monitor conditions.

This boundary is expected to continue its southward push through the
day Saturday and reach into northeast Oklahoma early/mid afternoon.
Ahead of the front, continued warm conditions with highs in the
low/upper 90s are expected across the CWA. As the front reaches the
CWA and interacts with max heating and instability across the
region, small shower and storm chances develop Saturday afternoon
over portions of northeast Oklahoma. The greater potential is
expected near the Oklahoma Kansas border during the afternoon hours
and should weaken Saturday evening. A gusty wind and locally heavy
rain threat will exist with any thunderstorm development.

Saturday evening into Saturday night the boundary is forecast to
push through and exit southeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.
Behind the boundary, the southern portion of surface high pressure
is progged to move into the region with low temps in the 60s to
lower 70s across the CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 1218 AM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025

The parent mid/upper level trof axis associated with the low pressure
system just north of the Great Lakes region is forecast to remain
across the Plains/Eastern CONUS into the first half of next week,
thus keeping the high pressure ridge at bay over the Western CONUS.
This puts upper level northwesterly flow across eastern Oklahoma and
northwest Arkansas with a series of shortwaves forecast to push
through the region. The first of which come through Sunday
afternoon into Monday, and a second Monday night into Tuesday.

Shower chances increase overnight Sunday night and spreads across
the much of the CWA Monday with a focus across northeast Oklahoma
into western Arkansas. These showers spread southward Monday night
and get an increase in coverage with the second shortwave moving
into the region. By Tuesday the greater precip chances are likely
across the southern half of the CWA. Limited instability for each of
these disturbances to feed off of should help to limit over all
storm and severe potentials. The greater thunder potential looks to
be during the day Monday with small chances of thunder holding into
southeast Oklahoma Tuesday. Heavy rain threats will exist each day
for the CWA with increasing moisture advection associated with each
disturbance. At this time, widespread 1 to 2 inches and locally
higher amounts of rainfall are forecast over the CWA through
Tuesday, which could create a localized flood threat.

With the shortwaves moving through, a push of a cooler airmass is
progged to push into the region next week, with much below seasonal
average temperatures spreading from north to south over the CWA
Monday into Tuesday. Forecast high temps in the 70s and 80s remain
possible. These cooler temps will be dependent on the precip chances
and cloud cover holding over the region. Any breaks to the cloud
cover could warm temps more into the 80s. The greater potential for
this looks to be Wednesday. Behind the second shortwave,surface
high pressure originating from Canada moves over the Plains/Midwest
Wednesday. At the same time Wednesday, the mid/upper level trof axis
should be exiting to the east. The combination of the departing trof
and increasing surface high pressure, Wednesday could be a lull in
precip chances, while the continued cooler temperatures remain
common.

Surface high pressure exits Wednesday night with another shortwave
forecast to drop southeast through the Plains within the upper level
northwesterly flow. Shower and storm chances increase again
Wednesday night and continue into Friday over the CWA.  Again, a
heavy rain threat looks to develop with the late week wave and
another couple of inches of rainfall could be possible. Temperatures
should continue to remain below seasonal average into next
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 615 AM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Cloud cover
will increase the next few hours in northeast OK, spreading
southeast with time. Rain is unlikely this morning, with just a
slight chance near KBVO. A few additional showers or storms could
develop in northeast OK this afternoon, but odds are too low to
include in the TAFs. Clouds may thin a bit towards the evening but
will not completely dissipate. Northeast winds will increase in
the late morning and afternoon as a cold front moves through,
with the strongest winds in northeast OK. Wind gusts of 10-20 kts
can be expected with the front.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   91  69  91  66 /  20  10   0  20
FSM   97  73  95  67 /  10   0   0  10
MLC   95  70  93  67 /   0   0   0  10
BVO   90  62  89  62 /  30  10   0  20
FYV   91  65  90  62 /  10  10   0  10
BYV   91  64  88  62 /  10   0   0  10
MKO   93  69  92  66 /  10  10   0  10
MIO   90  63  88  62 /  20  10   0  20
F10   93  68  91  66 /  10  10   0  10
HHW   94  71  93  71 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...06