763
FXUS64 KTSA 051947
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
247 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 247 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2025

  - Strong to severe storms and heavy rainfall are expected
    overnight tonight, overnight Friday night, and overnight
    Saturday night, and possibly overnight Sunday night for
    portions of the area.

  - The multiple rounds of rainfall will result in an increased
    flash and main-stem river flooding threat.

  - A cold front will bring a chance for storms early next week,
    with drying conditions expected midweek. Odds favor below
    average temperatures for this time of year.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Tonight)
Issued at 247 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025

Surface analysis and trends around the region show a warm frontal
boundary moving northward across eastern OK and northwest AR.
Dewpoint temperatures have risen into the low-mid 70s behind the
boundary. Low/mid-level cloud cover was fairly thick earlier this
morning, but breaks in the clouds are appearing via visible
satellite, with mostly sunny conditions occurring in portions of
southeast OK early this afternoon. Partly sunny/cloudy skies will
resume through the remainder of the afternoon. For tonight, low
temperatures remain mild, mid-upper 60s and lower 70s.

Latest model guidance shows the aforementioned surface boundary
lifting and stalling near or just north of the I-44 corridor this
evening into overnight tonight. Position/location of where this
boundary sets up is still uncertain right now. Simultaneously, a
subtle shortwave trough is forecast to eject off the Rockies and
move eastward across the KS/OK border. Hi-res models are in good
agreement that an organized complex of storms, likely forming into
an MCS, will develop across southwest KS/OK Panhandle and will advance
east/east-southeastward across northern OK and eventually spread
southward, affecting much of eastern OK and northwest AR overnight
tonight and into Friday morning. Forecast soundings ahead of the
complex of storms indicate an ample amount of instability and
40-50 knots of bulk shear, along with 0-1 km SRH values ranging
between 100-400 m2/s2. The main hazard with these storms will be
damaging wind gusts between 60-70 mph, perhaps isolated higher
gusts. However, given the abundance of low-level moisture
(dewpoints near or above 70F) and the impressive 0-1 km SRH,
tornadoes will be possible, including with any storms that form
ahead of the approaching complex as well as embedded in the
complex of storms itself. Although exact storm evolution and path
is still somewhat uncertain, the most significant severe threat
for the forecast area is likely to occur after midnight, with
these strong to severe storms persisting beyond the short-term
period and into the beginning of the long-term period. However,
at least some weakening should occur as Friday morning progresses.

On top of the severe threat, heavy rainfall will accompany the
MCS. The bulk of the rainfall is expected to fall near and north
of the I-40 corridor through the short-term period, with
rain/storms pushing south of I-40 beyond the short-term period.
Consensus in ensemble data show amounts ranging from 0.5-1.5
inches north of I-40 through 7 AM Friday. This seems reasonable,
with locally higher amounts possible in some spots. The Flood
Watch, issued this morning, was expanded eastward to include all
counties north and bordering I-40, including most northwest AR
counties, and has been extended through 1 PM Saturday. This Watch
area and timing may need to be adjusted in future forecast updates
with continued uncertainty and complexity of the forecast.

Mejia

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Thursday)
Issued at 247 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025

Strong and/or severe thunderstorms and heavy rainfall will be
ongoing Friday morning as an organized complex of storms continues
to advance east/southeast-ward through the forecast area.
Although the most severe part of the complex should shift south
and east of the Tulsa metro by sunrise, ongoing street and flash
flooding may impact the morning commute. Hi-res model data show
the storms gradually becoming less severe and weakening as the
morning progresses and as the storms approach and push south of
the I-40 corridor. Nevertheless, heavy rainfall isolated flash
flooding will still be a factor through at least mid-morning. Data
from the 12z and updated 18z HRRR runs also shows additional
storm development across central and southeast OK behind the MCS
through the early afternoon hours. This is still highly uncertain
at the moment, but if this verifies, it would enhance the flooding
threat for southeast OK and west-central AR. The Flood Watch may
need to be expanded southward by this evening/tonight if trends
continue.

Mean mid/upper-level flow becomes more northwesterly by Saturday,
with additional perturbations occasionally flowing through it
during the late evening and overnight periods. Global models
heavily suggest multiple complexes of storms/MCSs impacting
portions of the forecast area over the next few nights: Friday
night into Saturday morning, Saturday night into Sunday morning,
and possibly again Sunday night into Monday morning. Main threats
with all of them will continue to be damaging wind gusts and heavy
rainfall that will lead to flooding/flash flooding. Exact
locations for greatest impacts are still somewhat uncertain.
Latest model guidance suggests the biggest impacts Saturday night
and Sunday night will be across southeast OK and west-central AR.
Better details in the days ahead. A cold front is forecast to move
through sometime on Monday, with slightly cooler temperatures and
rain chances decreasing behind it. Drier weather tries prevail by
midweek as mid/upper-level spilt flow/ridging tries to build into
the area. Precipitation chance increase again by late week as
another system moves across the area.

Mejia

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025

Flight conditions are improving across the area this afternoon as
ceilings have begun to scatter out and lift for all terminals.
MVFR cigs are still expected for the next several hours before
becoming VFR by mid afternoon for all sites. The main impact to
terminals for this period will be a complex of thunderstorms
moving from west to east after midnight tonight into Friday
morning. A line of strong thunderstorms with strong wind gusts
and heavy rain will impact NE OK sites from around 8-12Z and into
Nw AR sites by around 10-14Z. The line should be weakening as it
moves east with lessening wind impact for NW AR sites. MVFR to
possibly IFR cigs will also accompany the line and last through
the morning hours. Additional shower and thunderstorms could
impact terminals through the rest of the morning hours tomorrow as
well, with less confidence in placement and timing of those
storms.

Bowlan

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   69  85  68  83 /  80  80  70  60
FSM   73  88  72  86 /  30  70  40  70
MLC   71  89  71  86 /  50  70  40  60
BVO   66  84  65  82 /  90  60  70  50
FYV   68  83  67  81 /  50  90  60  70
BYV   67  82  67  80 /  50  90  50  70
MKO   68  84  68  83 /  60  80  60  70
MIO   66  81  67  81 /  80  90  60  60
F10   68  85  67  84 /  70  80  60  70
HHW   72  89  72  89 /  20  30  10  30

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch from 1 AM CDT Friday through Saturday afternoon for
     OKZ054>072.

AR...Flood Watch from 1 AM CDT Friday through Saturday afternoon for
     ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...04