403
FXUS64 KTSA 130511
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1211 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1207 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

 - Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue today
   and likely lasting into Monday, with potential for locally
   heavy rainfall. A Flood Watch remains in effect until 7 PM this
   evening for all of the NWS Tulsa forecast area.

 - Rain/storm chances become more diurnally driven by Tuesday,
   with the best coverage shifting to the northeast of the area.

 - A weak front approaching the area from the north will continue
   to bring chances for storms Wednesday and Thursday.

 - Storm chances drop off by the end of the week as ridging tries
   to build in aloft.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 1207 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

Mid-level trough/MCV currently over the southern KS will shift over
northeast OK by mid-late morning. At the surface, a weak frontal
boundary should remain stationary across east-central OK and
southeast KS through the daytime. Consensus in global and hi-res
model data suggest showers and thunderstorms will increase in
coverage on the southern and eastern periphery of the MCV, across
southeast OK and northwest AR, a few hours after midnight and
through the morning hours. Locally heavy rainfall/flooding remains
the primary threat, though there may be enough instability for
marginally severe downbursts with more organized activity. Despite a
somewhat worked-over atmosphere after convection in the morning,
another round of diurnally-driven showers and thunderstorms seems
probable sometime mid-late afternoon as some destabilization occurs.
Daytime heating, lingering MCV, and leftover outflow boundaries
should cause scattered to numerous showers and storms, with hi-res
models focusing convection mostly across southeast OK and western
AR. This is also where the highest PWATs (2+ inches) will be located
by the afternoon. Rainfall amounts will vary (maybe greatly) from
location to location, but in general, additional rainfall amounts 2+
inches will be possible today.  A plethora of cloud cover and
rainfall will keep temperatures unseasonably cool for mid-July.
Afternoon highs will generally reach the low-mid 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 1207 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

The mid-level trough axis and associated vorticity lobe will park
itself and become nearly stationary over the forecast area tonight
and through much of the day on Monday, maybe even beyond Monday.
Latest 00z run of the HRRR suggests a decrease in precipitation
after sunset this evening and into the overnight hours. Maintained a
chance of showers and storms given the juicy environment and trough
over the area. Otherwise, tonight should be mostly dry with
overnight lows dropping into the upper 60s to lower 70s.

Isolated to scattered diurnally-driven convection looks probable
again Monday and through at least Wednesday as the upper-level
trough finally begins to lift northeast out of the area thereafter.
A weak cold front will try and approach the forecast area sometime
Wednesday or Thursday, but likely will not be strong enough to push
through. Long-range models hint at showers and storms may accompany
the frontal boundary as it approaches, and may push into northeast
OK and northwest AR Wednesday night into Thursday. Beyond Thursday,
models and ensembles indicate mid/upper-level ridging finally
beginning to build in over the southern CONUS by late in the week
and into next weekend. With that said, temperatures will trend
warmer and precipitation will trend drier each day through the long-
term period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1207 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue through
the night, though coverage will generally wind down somewhat the
next few hours. Ceilings will come down to 700-2000 ft for all
areas tonight with some slight visibility reductions, especially
in heavier showers. Storm activity will ramp back up near daybreak
and into the afternoon for KMLC up through northwest Arkansas.
Storms will produce heavy rainfall and frequent lightning.
Ceilings will gradually lift during the day, breaking up by the
evening. Wind will generally be light and variable through the
period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   84  70  88  73 /  50  10  20  10
FSM   86  73  88  72 /  80  20  50  20
MLC   85  70  87  72 /  70  30  40  20
BVO   84  67  89  68 /  40  10  20  10
FYV   83  68  86  68 /  70  20  40  20
BYV   83  68  86  68 /  70  20  40  10
MKO   83  70  85  71 /  60  20  40  20
MIO   83  69  87  69 /  70  10  20  20
F10   83  69  86  70 /  50  20  30  20
HHW   84  70  87  71 /  70  40  40  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch through this evening for OKZ049-053>076.

AR...Flood Watch through this evening for ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-
     029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...06