682
FXUS64 KTSA 130441
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1041 PM CST Wed Nov 12 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1041 PM CST Wed Nov 12 2025

 - Well above normal temperatures through early next week.

 - Dry weather will persist through weekend with periodic breezy
   days which could locally raise grassland fire concerns.

 - Shower and thunderstorm chances return early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Thursday Night)
Issued at 1041 PM CST Wed Nov 12 2025

Surface high pressure will shift eastward by Thursday morning with a
return to southerly winds expected across eastern Oklahoma and
western Arkansas. Winds will likely become gusty by the afternoon as
a Lee cyclone develops to the west, tightening the surface gradient.
Well above normal temperatures in the mid to upper 70s continue for
the area under mostly clear skies aside from some passing high
clouds. A local enhancement in fire spread rates will be possible
Thursday afternoon as low level moisture slowly returns to the
region. More mild overnight lows are expected Thursday night as
southerly winds stay up over much of the region through the
nighttime hours.

Bowlan

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 1041 PM CST Wed Nov 12 2025

Mid level ridging will expand over the region into the weekend,
allowing for near record temperatures in the 80s Friday and
especially Saturday across a good portion of the area as the low
level thermal ridge axis sets up over eastern Oklahoma. Gusty
southerly winds will also continue into the weekend with some
limited fire weather threat each afternoon owing to the warm
temperatures, gusty winds, and recent freeze leading to a rapid
curing of grassy fuels. Increasing low level moisture will help
temper the threat as min RH values remain above critical thresholds,
but caution should be taken to limit any fire starting activities
through the weekend. Overnight lows will also stay very mild with
sustained southerly winds and the increasing dewpoints noted over
the region.

A more unsettled pattern looks to evolve into the latter half of the
forecast period, though many uncertainties still remain in the
overall details and evolution of the impactful systems. First, an
upper low moving across the Northern Plains will try to push a
frontal boundary through the region late Saturday into Sunday,
though without a substantial push, it is forecast to stall/wash out
somewhere over eastern Oklahoma/northwest Arkansas on Sunday. The
only impact from this frontal passage will be a minor cool off from
the near record temps to still well above normal temperatures.
Second, an upper low will lift northeast from the Southern
California Coast across the Rockies and into the Central Plains
early next week. Trends continue to show this low going well north
of the local region and thus better rain chances will remain north
of the forecast area through the weekend and early next week now, as
the system has slowed down. The low will push another frontal
boundary through the region, with some low end light rain chances
possible along the boundary on Tuesday, primarily across far E OK
and NW AR. Another wave is progged to dig into the Southwest CONUS
by mid week with southwesterly flow aloft increasing over the
region. This would allow more widespread rain chances, and with
ample moisture in place some locally heavy rainfall and
thunderstorms would be possible during this time. Confidence is low,
however, on the timing and placement of this system with little
continuity in overall guidance into the latter part of next week.
Temperatures late in the period will be highly dependent on the
eventual evolution of this low with a wide range currently possible.
More rain and clouds will keep temperatures back down near normal
while the recent warm trend will continue if timing changes with the
rain and storm chances.

Bowlan

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1041 PM CST Wed Nov 12 2025

VFR conditions will prevail with sct-bkn mid/high clouds and
generally light to moderate south winds through the forecast
period.

Mejia

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   72  47  77  58 / 0   0   0   0
FSM   72  48  79  57 / 0   0   0   0
MLC   74  50  80  59 / 0   0   0   0
BVO   72  39  74  52 / 0   0   0   0
FYV   71  43  74  56 / 0   0   0   0
BYV   69  45  74  57 / 0   0   0   0
MKO   71  47  78  59 / 0   0   0   0
MIO   69  44  74  56 / 0   0   0   0
F10   72  48  79  59 / 0   0   0   0
HHW   73  51  80  59 / 0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...67