159
FXUS64 KTSA 050437
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1037 PM CST Tue Feb 4 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 813 PM CST Tue Feb 4 2025

 - Areas of drizzle and also light rain chances linger into Wednesday.

 - High uncertainty in temperatures persists Wednesday-Saturday.

 - Strong cold front arrives this weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of tonight)
Issued at 813 PM CST Tue Feb 4 2025

A stalled surface cold front continues to intersect the area. The
surface portion of the boundary has pushed all the way south into
Texas, but aloft it gradually slopes northward. Robust warm and
moist southerly flow aloft continues to ride over this boundary,
developing clouds and sprinkles. In general, this will continue
through the night with temperatures mostly remaining steady or
perhaps dropping a degree or two. Visibility could be locally
reduced in some areas, but so far have not seen any evidence of
actual fog formation. Updated the grids to lower temperatures
slightly based on short term trends. Increased Pops slightly and
drizzle coverage as well.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Tuesday)
Issued at 200 PM CST Tue Feb 4 2025

A relatively weak perturbation in the mid level zonal flow will
emerge out of the Rockies overnight tonight and traverse across
southern Kansas during the day Wednesday. Subtle Lee troughing
will likely occur in response to this wave, helping to increase
southerly flow somewhat south of the frontal boundary into
Wednesday morning. That should give the front a bit of a push
north throughout the day Wednesday, but how far north it makes it
is still highly uncertain. Areas along and south of I-40 could get
back into the warm air by tomorrow afternoon, while the front
stalls out again somewhere near the I-44 corridor. A large range
in temperatures is forecast for tomorrow afternoon for areas north
and south of the front respectively. This wave will also increase
ascent across northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas,
leading to more drizzle or very light rain. The precipitation and
low level cloudiness will likely halt the frontal boundary`s push
to the north, but where that boundary sets up is still uncertain.

That will continue to be the theme through the rest of the week as
the boundary continues to waffle back and forth across eastern
Oklahoma and parts of northwest Arkansas. The passing mid level
wave should shove the front back south on Thursday, with more of
the area getting back into the cold air. It will then make a run
back north on Friday into Saturday morning ahead of the next
approaching shortwave. Drizzly and cool conditions will continue
north of the boundary, while well above normal temperatures will
be the result south of the boundary. Stronger mid level troughing
then arrives on Saturday with a stronger push of cold air all the
way through the forecast area that looks to last for several days
into next week. A stronger storm system looks on tap for the early
to middle part of next week that will bring more precipitation
chances, with some potential for winter weather, though guidance
remains split on the track and strength at this time range.

Bowlan

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1037 PM CST Tue Feb 4 2025

Widespread LIFR/IFR ceilings are expected overnight into Wednesday
morning with areas of fog/patchy drizzle as stronger isentropic lift
develops. Although conditions should improve slightly by late afternoon
as frontal boundary tries to lift northward toward the I-44 corridor,
IFR conditions should persist.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   39  53  47  52 /  20  30   0  10
FSM   48  67  58  71 /  20  20  10  10
MLC   45  65  60  69 /  20  10  10  10
BVO   36  49  42  50 /  20  30   0  10
FYV   46  60  57  62 /  30  30  10  10
BYV   44  60  57  57 /  30  30  10  10
MKO   42  57  55  62 /  20  20  10  10
MIO   39  49  45  53 /  30  40  10  10
F10   41  58  54  63 /  20  10   0  10
HHW   50  70  61  75 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...12