732
FXUS64 KTSA 061941
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
241 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 241 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

  - Strong to severe storms and heavy rainfall will occur again
    tonight into Saturday morning, especially across northeast
    Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. Focus of heavy rain may
    shift slightly southward Saturday night into Sunday and even
    more southward Saturday night into Sunday.

  - The multiple rounds of rainfall will result in an increased
    flash and main-stem river flooding threat.

  - A cold front will bring a chance for storms early next week,
    with drying conditions expected midweek. Odds favor below
    average temperatures for this time of year through mid week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight)
Issued at 241 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

The boundary layer across eastern OK and northwest AR continues
to be a little worked over after this mornings MCS pushed
through. As skies continue to clear this afternoon, some destabilization
is already occurring. This is lead to another active and
complicated setup again for this evening/tonight for much of the
forecast area. Latest high resolution models are in fair agreement
that showers and thunderstorms will develop early-mid evening
along a surface boundary/warm front currently lifting northward
across eastern OK and northwest AR. Its still difficult to say
how these showers and storms will evolve as the evening/night
progresses, though latest run of the HRRR suggests enhanced
thunderstorm development along this surface boundary by or just
after midnight tonight, mostly across northeast OK. These storms
would eventually interact with storms that will be rolling in from
the High Plains after midnight tonight. If this verifies, storm
modes would be unorganized and quite messy and clustery, unlike
the MCS that pushed through this morning. Nevertheless, the
atmosphere will be ripe to support strong to severe storms and any
storm that is able to get organized will be capable of damaging
wind gusts up to 75 mph, large hail, with a low-end tornado threat
as well. Heavy rainfall and flash flooding will also be an issue,
especially for locations that picked up over an inch of rain over
the last 24 hours, which was most of the forecast area. Kept the
Flood Watch as is, specially and temporally (for now) with how
much forecast uncertainty there is currently.

Mejia

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Friday)
Issued at 241 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

Strong to severe thunderstorms will be ongoing once again
Saturday morning as a messy complex pushes across eastern OK and
northwest AR. Storms are expected to weaken and shift east of the
forecast area by late morning or early afternoon Saturday and
skies should begin clearing up by mid-afternoon or so. There is
still some uncertainty with what happens Saturday evening/night,
with another shortwave trough pushing over the Southern Plains,
embedded in the overall northwest flow aloft. Additionally, the
frontal boundary that has been oscillating across our forecast
area last couple of days will gradually push southward Saturday
afternoon/evening. This combination may cause moderate to heavy
rainfall, especially in the vicinity of the frontal boundary. As
the boundary pushes south of the Red River Saturday evening/night,
precipitation/storm chances will gradually shift south as well.
Storms that develop along the front may be strong and/or severe
and will pose a flooding threat. Better details on timing and
locations to come later.

A stronger frontal boundary will push through on Sunday
evening/night, with possibly another MCS that develops Sunday
night into Monday morning that still looks to mostly affect
southeast OK and western AR. Once again severe storms and a
flooding potential will occur with it.

Mostly dry weather is expected by midweek, though precipitation
chances still wont be zero for some portions (mostly southern) of
the CWA. Another active and wet weather pattern is expected by
mid-late week next week as another mid-level low/trough moves
overhead.


Mejia

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

Improving conditions to all VFR is expected over the early
afternoon hours as all precip and cloud cover associated with the
convective system scatters out. VFR conditions are expected
through the rest of the afternoon and evening hours before
thunderstorm chances return again late tonight. Best chances will
reside across NE OK sites over into NW AR early tomorrow morning.
More uncertainty in storm coverage for KMLC and KFSM so have
elected to maintain PROB30 groups at those locations. Elsewhere,
expect numerous showers and storms overnight with MVFR to IFR cigs
and vsbys, similar to this morning. Complex of storms will shift
eastward through the morning hours with some lingering showers or
storms lasting into the late morning.

Bowlan

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   68  85  65  90 /  80  70  10  10
FSM   72  88  67  91 /  50  80  30  10
MLC   72  88  66  90 /  40  60  40  10
BVO   65  84  62  89 /  80  60   0  10
FYV   67  84  62  88 /  70  90  20  10
BYV   66  82  62  86 /  60  90  10   0
MKO   69  83  64  88 /  60  80  20  10
MIO   66  82  62  86 /  70  80  10  10
F10   68  85  64  88 /  60  70  20  10
HHW   73  89  70  90 /  10  40  40  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch through Saturday afternoon for OKZ054>072.

AR...Flood Watch through Saturday afternoon for ARZ001-002-010-011-
     019-020.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...20