771
FXUS64 KTSA 200230
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
930 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

...New SHORT TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 215 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

  - Additional widespread thunderstorms tonight with all severe
    hazards especially SE OK into western AR. Heavy rains and
    flooding footprint expand overnight.

  - Additional storms develop early Sunday with continue severe
    threat including tornado potential. Localized heavy rains will
    worsen any ongoing flooding.

  - Drier weather returns early next week, but unsettled weather
    resumes by midweek and continues into next weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of tonight)
Issued at 930 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

Coverage of showers and thunderstorms across eastern Oklahoma and
northwest and west central Arkansas remains likely to expand
through the rest of the evening and into early Sunday morning,
with an increasing risk for both severe weather and heavy
rain/flash flooding expected. On the severe weather front, the
immediate concern involves the ongoing activity along the I-35
corridor in south central Oklahoma that has been slowly
approaching the western fringes of our southeast Oklahoma
counties. CAM and WoFS solutions have been consistent in bringing
these strong to severe storms into the area from southern
Pittsburg into western Pushmataha counties. The better surface-
based instability remains confined to far southeast Oklahoma,
supporting the locally better potential for tornadoes in this
area. In addition, these have been prolific rainfall producers,
with one-hour rainfall estimates in the 2 to 3 inch range. Expect
an increasing threat for at least 1 to 2 inch per hour rainfall
rates to expand into parts of southeast and east central Oklahoma
toward midnight.

With the increase in the low level jet, additional strong
to severe thunderstorms may increase further northward along the
front that extends northeastward to the south of I-44, given
modest instability along and south of the front at present. This
broader threat for severe weather may begin to wane after the 2-4
am time frame given an expected notable decrease in instability
afterward into sunrise Sunday. This activity, if it occurs, will
also lead to an increase in the flash flood threat farther
eastward.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

Brief settled period Monday into Tuesday with mild temps and dry
weather. Main stem river flooding may continue during this period.

The pattern for mid to late week is expected to be near zonal
across the CONUS with several smaller scale waves expected to
quickly sweep eastward. Each wave will bring a higher chance of
showers and storms and the forecast will retain daily precip
chances from mid week through next weekend. Plenty of details yet
to be seen regarding specific severe and/or flooding risks but
climatology would favor some degree of severe potential for most
any period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 613 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

Difficult aviation conditions will prevail for much of the TAF
period. Low ceilings are present across eastern OK, though at the
moment terminals in NW Arkansas are VFR. Showers and
thunderstorms are increasing and will spread across the area the
next few hours. All TAF sites are expected to see several hours of
moderate to heavy rainfall tonight. The best chance of strong to
severe storms tonight will be near KMLC and KFSM, with a lesser
chance to the north. A second round of storms may develop late
morning spreading from west to east. In terms of wind shear, there
will be a window late tonight into Sunday morning for borderline
low level wind shear, perhaps touching 30 kts in the 0-2 kft layer
for a short time.

Next, lets mention ceilings. As the rain spreads in ceilings will
lower to 1-2 kft for most areas, some some falling as low as 500
ft during storms. Visibility will reduce to 2-4 SM for most areas
overnight during the rain, but will come up again after daybreak
Sunday. Winds will become south to southeast for most areas and
become gusty Sunday morning, shifting to west during the
afternoon. VFR conditions should return during the afternoon for
all areas, spreading from west to east.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   54  69  44  75 /  90  90   0   0
FSM   64  75  49  79 /  70  90  10   0
MLC   62  71  47  78 /  90  80   0   0
BVO   50  68  41  75 /  90  90   0   0
FYV   58  72  45  76 /  80  90  10   0
BYV   56  73  47  73 /  80  90  20   0
MKO   60  71  44  76 /  90  80   0   0
MIO   52  69  43  73 /  90  90  10   0
F10   58  70  45  76 / 100  90   0   0
HHW   65  72  48  76 /  60  80   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch through Sunday evening for OKZ049-053>076.

AR...Flood Watch through Sunday evening for ARZ001-002-010-011-019-
     020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...06