786
FXUS64 KTSA 270423
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1123 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1123 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

 - Dangerous heat conditions continue through at least Tuesday.

 - Potential minor cool down and some chance of showers and storms
   from mid to late week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Monday)
Issued at 1123 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

Upper ridge firmly in control with dangerous heat continuing on
Monday. Dewpoints are likely to trend a few degrees drier but
temperatures will likely be warmer. Heat index values may be near
or slightly below exact criteria but persistent wet bulb globe
temps at extreme levels coupled with the ongoing duration of the
heat warrant the warning from NE OK into west central AR.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 1123 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

Dangerous heat expected again Tuesday before a minor cool down by
Wednesday. Convection will approach the forecast area by Tuesday
evening but struggle to make a more southward advance. A weak cold
front will gradually push south and westward into the forecast
area and become a zone for a chance of showers and storms Tuesday
night into Wednesday primarily across far E OK and NW AR.

Temperatures and dewpoint trends along and west of the weak
boundary will be challenge as potential for moisture pooling may
offset the minor cool down and still result in excessive heat
index values on Wednesday.

The overall pattern will see the upper ridge become centered more
westward by late week and temperatures will likely trend toward
more seasonal normals. There could also be an increase in shower
and storm chances the region aligns on the periphery of the upper
ridge but uncertainty remains high.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 625 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. South to
southwest winds will become light and variable after sunset this
evening, staying out of the south or southwest and increasing
some again by late morning Monday. FEW-SCT midlevel clouds, with bases
around 7-10 kft, and SCT-BKN high clouds will occur through the
daytime Monday.

Mejia

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   81 103  80 103 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   79 102  79 104 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   79 100  78 102 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   79 103  77 101 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   77  98  76  99 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   77  99  76  99 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   78  99  77 101 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   79  99  78  99 /   0   0   0  10
F10   78 100  77 102 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   76  98  76 100 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Monday for OKZ049-053-059-
     063>065-068-069-073-075-154-172-254-276-354-376.

     Extreme Heat Warning from noon to 8 PM CDT Monday for OKZ055>058-
     060>062-066-067-070-071-074-176-272.

AR...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Monday for ARZ001-002-010-
     011-119-120-229.

     Extreme Heat Warning from noon to 8 PM CDT Monday for ARZ129-219-
     220.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...67