995
FXUS64 KTSA 101716
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1216 PM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1216 PM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025

  - Unseasonably warm temperatures continue through the weekend.

  - Increasing southerly winds and the warm conditions will aid in
    limited fire weather concerns for the weekend, especially
    Sunday afternoon.

  - Rain chances return early next week, mainly for areas along
    and north of I-44.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight)
Issued at 1216 PM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025

Loosely organized convective cluster ongoing across SW MO will
continue to drift southeastward with the western flank of the
associated outflow serving as a boundary for scattered to
isolated convection. A few showers or storms will likely move into
far NE OK and far NW AR through mid evening but coverage is
expected to remain low. Otherwise dry and seasonably mild
overnight conditions.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Friday)
Issued at 1216 PM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025

Pressure gradient begins to strengthen on Saturday and more so
into Sunday with southerly winds increasing and becoming gusty by
Sunday afternoon especially across NE OK. Temps will also continue
to trend upward with unseasonably warm highs expected area wide
through the weekend. Fire weather conditions will likely worsen by
Sunday afternoon along and west of Highway 75 where drier
dewpoints are expected and within the corridor of longest duration
from wetting rains.

Winds relax on Monday as a weak front moves into NE OK. This
boundary will be overspread by the plume of tropical moisture from
decaying systems off the coast of Mexico. A broad fetch of rains
are likely along the extent of the boundary, however the southward
advance of the front and associated rains continues to be shown as
minimal into the local region. Rain chances will largely be
confined to NE OK and overall amounts are likely to light. Any
cooling associated with the front and/or increasing cloud cover
will be brief as stronger ridging expands into the southern Plains
by mid week. Expect dry weather and temps well above normal for
much of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1216 PM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through the period, with generally mid
and high clouds. Ongoing showers and thunderstorms ongoing in
southeast KS and southwest MO will have the best chance of
impacting XNA and ROG, although CAMs generally show them on a
downward trend upon moving into NW AR. Will carry a VCSH mention
at XNA and ROG given the lower confidence of category impacts at
either site.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   63  88  64  89 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   63  86  62  88 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   60  88  62  89 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   59  86  59  88 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   58  83  58  84 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   60  81  59  83 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   62  86  62  87 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   61  82  61  85 /   0   0   0   0
F10   60  88  61  88 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   58  85  60  87 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...22