068
FXUS64 KTSA 230037
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
637 PM CST Sat Feb 22 2025

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 153 PM CST Sat Feb 22 2025

  - Significant warming trend Sunday into Monday; above normal
    temperatures next week.

  - Weak cold front on Wednesday w/ sprinkles and slightly
    cooler temperatures.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 636 PM CST Sat Feb 22 2025

An upper low will move east across TX tonight. There will be some
increase in cloud cover across southern OK, but the latest
guidance keeps any showers in the wrap-around band on its north
side to the south of the Red River. Will leave the dry forecast
alone for now. The much warmer temps today combined with at least
some south wind thru the night in most places will yield
relatively milder overnight lows tonight compared to recent days.
Still, the sheltered valley sites such as KBVO and KFYV will
likely decouple and will be several degrees lower than surrounding
areas. The warming trend will continue on Sunday.

Lacy

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight)
Issued at 153 PM CST Sat Feb 22 2025

Fast moving wave will focus lift across TX this evening through
tonight. Expanding precip shield is expected to remain south of
the forecast area but an isolated light shower could briefly pass
across far SE OK. Otherwise, overnight lows continue to moderate
compared to recent nights.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Saturday)
Issued at 153 PM CST Sat Feb 22 2025

Zonal flow aloft and corresponding down sloping component will
aiding in warming temps well above normal Monday through Tuesday.
The next weak cold front passes Tuesday night through Wednesday.
Increasing mid level moisture may be sufficient for a few high
based showers, however prevailing dry low levels will largely
limit potential for measurable precip with the frontal passage.
Temps will cool slightly for mid week but likely remain above
seasonal normals.

Warmer temps return for late week with the focus turning toward a
potential storm system to impact the region next weekend. Plenty
of uncertainty at this time range, but this potential storm
system could mark the return of more widespread precip chances
with later forecasts.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 501 PM CST Sat Feb 22 2025

Light southerly winds will prevail through the overnight hours and
into Sunday. Winds may become a bit breezier with more of a
southwesterly component Sunday afternoon, but will mostly remain
around 10 kts or less. Skies will be clear except for a few high
clouds Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   26  54  33  68 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   25  57  33  67 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   26  59  34  69 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   20  52  28  66 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   22  55  33  64 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   26  53  34  61 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   25  54  32  66 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   24  49  33  60 /   0   0   0   0
F10   26  57  34  68 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   28  56  34  67 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...30
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...06