849
FXUS64 KTSA 040532
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1232 AM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1124 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

   - While there is a low to medium (20-40%) chance of showers and
     storms from the morning thru the afternoon on July 4th, the
     evening hours should be dry and favorable for the holiday
     festivities.

   - There will be rain and storm chances most days of this
     forecast, including the weekend on into much of next week.
     Some periods will have higher chances than others, and will
     depend on the timing of waves aloft moving across the region
     on the eastern side of what will be a strong subtropical
     ridge over the Southwest.

   - Afternoon heat indices will creep up into the 95-100F range
     next week as the subtropical ridge to our west strengthens
     and its scope broadens.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Friday Night)
Issued at 1124 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

Models, especially the CAMs, are insistent on increasing rain and
storm chances beginning in SE OK Friday morning, spreading north
into parts of NE OK thru midday. This may be in association with a
weak MCV emanating from the rain and storms over west TX, and it
could be partly due to north and eastward expansion of the rich
deep layer moisture (PWATs ~ 2 inches) ahead of an ejecting
shortwave trough that`s over the 4 corners now. Slow moving or
training storms could drop some pretty heavy rain as was evidenced
this morning down in Pittsburg county. The HRRR/HREF indicate
mainly isolated afternoon coverage with the evening hours mainly
dry for holiday festivities, so that`s good news.

Lacy

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 1041 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

The shortwave trough ejecting out of the Southwest is likely to
aid in forcing a storm complex as it tops the developing southwest
CONUS ridge late Friday into Saturday. The latest HRRR suggests
that outflow from a decaying MCS will push into NE OK by Saturday
morning and could force more showers and storms. By Saturday
afternoon there are some indications that the boundary will push
far enough southeast to warrant at least slight chance for storms
across portions of NW AR and SE OK. The tailing portion of the
aforementioned wave will drop down into our region Sunday into
Monday, bringing increased chances for rain and storms. The
subtropical ridge over the Southwest strengthens as we head deeper
into next week, so the more favored zone for better rain/storm
chances will be the eastern half of the forecast area (i.e. far
eastern OK into western AR) and especially toward the middle of
next week with a potential wave sliding thru in the NW flow aloft.

As mentioned earlier, afternoon heat indices will be creeping up
into the upper 90s to near 100 as well, especially across eastern
OK into west- central AR. This is of course better than it could
be this time of year. Looking further down the road into the
following week, there are indications that the subtropical ridge
will try to build east over the southern Plains, which could lead
to a stretch of hotter and drier weather. We`ll just have to wait
and see.

Lacy

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1231 AM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

VFR conditions are likely to prevail through the forecast period
for all sites. Mid clouds will increase overnight into the
morning hours from southwest to northeast. Additionally, scattered
showers may develop with potential to impact primarily E OK sites
during the morning and early afternoon hours. There is a low
probability of some MVFR cigs moving into portions of E OK this
morning, and have introduced a PROB30 group for MLC. However, the
expectation is that any lowered ceilings should be fairly brief
and lift by the afternoon across E OK. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms may develop across E OK and NW AR this afternoon as
well, but coverage is likely to be too low to mention in TAFs at
this time. Any stronger showers or storms may produce gusty and
erratic winds. Otherwise, winds increase out of the south during
the afternoon hours... gusting 15-20 kts... before decreasing
again this evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   89  73  90  73 /  20  10  20  20
FSM   92  74  94  75 /  20  10  10  10
MLC   87  71  90  72 /  30  10  20  10
BVO   88  71  89  70 /  20  10  30  30
FYV   90  70  90  71 /  20  10  20  10
BYV   90  70  91  70 /  20  10  20  10
MKO   87  71  90  72 /  20  10  20  10
MIO   89  71  90  72 /  20  10  20  30
F10   87  71  89  72 /  30  10  20  10
HHW   87  71  91  71 /  30  10  10   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...43