991
FXUS64 KTSA 171750
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1250 PM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1235 AM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

 - There is a low-medium chance (20-50%) for storms across parts
   of northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas this afternoon
   through this evening.

 - Precipitation chances drop off and temperatures increase by the
end of the week as ridging builds in aloft. Hot and dry weather will
likely persist through the weekend and into next week with Heat
Advisories likely.

 - Low chance (<20%) of showers and storms in far southeast
   Oklahoma/western Arkansas Saturday associated with a tropical
   disturbance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

Scattered showers and thunderstorms this morning have waned across
much of the area currently. This activity did put out an outflow
boundary that has begun to stall over northeast Oklahoma and far
northwest Arkansas. This will be an area of focus for further
storm development this afternoon as a weak mid level wave moves
across northern Oklahoma this afternoon. Some modest shear
associated with this wave could also lead to a little more
organized convective clusters capable of some strong to severe
downburst winds along with locally heavy rainfall, primarily from
near I-44 and north. Otherwise, south of the boundary and
associated cloud cover it will be hot and humid this afternoon,
with a Heat Advisory in effect for portions of the area as heat
index values will range from 105-108 degrees this afternoon.
Showers and storms could linger through much of the evening hours
across northeast Oklahoma, before weakening and shifting
northeastward as the wave exits the area. Seasonably warm
overnight lows expected for tonight across the region.

Bowlan

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Thursday)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

The frontal boundary more or less washes out by Friday and it
looks like a prolonged period of heat will build into the region
this weekend through the rest of the forecast period. The first
strong upper ridging of the summer is on tap for the foreseeable
future. Another Heat Advisory has been issued for Friday for the
same areas, with possible expansion during later forecasts has
highs in the mid 90s are expected tomorrow afternoon along with
continued humid conditions leading to heat index values in excess
of 105 degrees. Heat headlines will likely continue through much
of the next week with temperatures inching closer to the century
mark next week. The forecast is dry after tonight through the
period, with the exception of some low chance (<20%) for some
showers across far southeast Oklahoma and parts of western
Arkansas both Friday afternoon and Saturday afternoon as a
tropical disturbance lift northward east of the local region this
weekend.

Bowlan

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1250 PM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

Outflow boundary from this morning`s storms is now approaching
the I-40 corridor. Winds behind the outflow are mostly northerly
or northeasterly, but should gradually trend back out of the
south or southeast with time. Overall, VFR should prevail at all
TAF sites through the period. Isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms are expected to redevelop near and north of the
outflow boundary this afternoon and into this evening. Models show
best chances of convection across northeast OK, north of I-40.
Have included some PROB30 groups at BVO, TUL, and RVS from
00z/7PM through 06z/1AM, though will need to monitor
satellite/radar trends in case convection starts earlier. Will
make amendments, if needed. If storms are able to form and roll
over any aerodromes, brief periods of low cigs and reduced
visibilities are likely before VFR prevails again.

Mejia

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   92  76  96  76 /  40  30  10   0
FSM   94  77  98  76 /  10   0   0   0
MLC   93  72  96  73 /  10   0   0   0
BVO   89  73  96  73 /  60  40  10   0
FYV   90  73  94  73 /  30  20  10   0
BYV   89  72  94  73 /  40  20  20   0
MKO   92  74  95  73 /  20  20   0   0
MIO   88  73  94  73 /  60  40  20   0
F10   93  73  96  71 /  20  20   0   0
HHW   94  72  96  73 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ060>062-066-067-
     070>072-074-076.

     Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Friday for OKZ060>062-066-
     067-070>072-074-076.

AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ019-020-029.

     Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Friday for ARZ019-020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...67