275
FXUS64 KTSA 120528
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1228 AM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1117 PM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

 - Thunderstorm chances return Saturday with medium confidence
   in exact placement and coverage.

 - Unseasonably hot temperatures continue this weekend through at
   least the middle of next week. Expect heat headlines at times.

 - While much of the region has received rainfall over the past 36
   hours, the ongoing drought conditions will require much more
   rainfall for improvement. Fire weather concerns will continue
   during periods of stronger winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Saturday)
Issued at 1117 PM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

The rest of the ongoing overnight period should be on the quieter
side, with the afternoon and evening storms having diminished with
sunset. Overnight lows should be in the low to mid 70s in most
areas, with areas near the Kansas border and in far northwest
Arkansas dipping into the 60s.

The forecast for Saturday remains somewhat in question, with
concerns revolving around how much thunderstorm coverage occurs
tomorrow and how far south. Most of the CAMs and some of the
synoptic models are largely in agreement that a thunderstorm
complex will develop to the north and push southward into
northeast Oklahoma mid to late morning tomorrow as a mid level
disturbance drops southward through the area. If this occurs as
expected, this would likely push the afternoon thunderstorm
potential into areas near and south of I-40. This is the idea that
will be featured in this evening/s forecast. With these
expectations, areas along and south of I-40 should be hot once
again, with potential for peak heat index values above 105. A Heat
Advisory will be issued for this area Saturday, given the higher
confidence there. If the storm coverage is not as great, the
advisory may need to be expanded northward by later shifts.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 1117 PM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

Somewhat higher uncertainty exists for the Saturday evening into
Sunday morning period, with another batch of thunderstorms
advertised across parts of northeast Oklahoma and into northwest
Arkansas during this time frame in association with a weak front
in the vicinity of the Kansas border. Showers and storms may
linger into the daylight hours Sunday, primarily across far
northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas, with hot and dry
weather prevailing thereafter through at least the early part of
next week. Additional heat headlines will likely be needed during
this time frame. Breezy conditions on Sunday, Monday and Tuesday
will fuel increased fire weather concerns, with the recent rains
not being nearly enough to squelch the impact of the ongoing
drought. Toward the end of next week, a cold front continues to be
advertised in the longer range models, but the timing and strength
of the front remains in question. If/when it does come through, an
increase in shower and thunderstorm potential will accompany it.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1228 AM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

Mostly VFR conditions are expected through the period with a few
possible exceptions. Some patchy fog will be possible tonight,
mostly across NW AR, with KFYV having the best chance at seeing
any impacts to visibility. By late morning, a complex of storms
could approach NE OK sites, while in a weakening state. PROB30
groups have been introduced for this scenario. Any storms should
dissipate by early afternoon. Additional storm development is
possible late in the TAF period, but uncertainty remains too high
at this point to introduce mention with the exception of KBVO.
Winds will generally remain light out of the south to southeast
outside of any convective influences.

Bowlan

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   96  74  98  78 /  30  40  10   0
FSM   99  74 101  75 /  30  20  10   0
MLC  100  75 101  76 /  30  10   0   0
BVO   94  67  98  70 /  40  40  20   0
FYV   94  68  97  71 /  30  40  20   0
BYV   93  70  95  72 /  40  40  20   0
MKO   97  71  98  73 /  30  10  10   0
MIO   93  70  95  72 /  40  40  20   0
F10   98  72 100  74 /  30  10   0   0
HHW   99  74  98  74 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for
     OKZ049-053-065-066-070-071-073>075-176-272.

AR...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for
     ARZ129-219-220.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....22
AVIATION...04