672
FXUS64 KTSA 171030
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
530 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 258 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025

  - An unsettled weather pattern continues through the weekend and into
    early next week. Severe thunderstorms are expected at times.

  - Cooler and drier weather for the middle of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today & Tonight)
Issued at 258 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025

A pleasant day is in store for much of the area through the
morning and into the mid afternoon hours. It will be warm again
today with highs in the low to mid 80s with mostly sunny skies
becoming partly cloudy this afternoon. A frontal boundary that
moved through the region yesterday will lift back north
throughout the day today and bring increasing low level moisture
to the area by afternoon, making it feel rather muggy outside.
Additionally, a dryline will take shape across western Oklahoma
and serve as a focus of scattered thunderstorm development by mid
afternoon. Surface convergence isn`t overly impressive in the
vicinity of the dryline, and there is a lack of any synoptic
forcing over the Plains this afternoon making the forecast a
little muddy as we work through the afternoon and evening hours.
Still, diurnal heating and continued moisture advection within the
warm sector should prove enough to overcome modest mid level
capping and initiate at least a few thunderstorms by mid afternoon
along the dryline over SW OK/NW TX. These storms will move fairly
quickly to the northeast and approach parts of southeast Oklahoma
by late afternoon. Conditions are such that these storms will
likely be severe with all hazards in play. Additional thunderstorm
development is possible this evening across northeast Oklahoma as
the warm front lifts northward over the region and a low level
jet intensifies. These storms will primarily pose a large hail
risk into the nighttime hours across NE OK and into NW AR. Storms
could regenerate during the overnight hours in the vicinity of
the elevated frontal zone across northeast Oklahoma and northwest
Arkansas with a risk of locally heavy rainfall and flooding
developing if storm train over the same areas.

Nighttime temperatures are expected to stay rather mild as the
warm front moves through the region. Overnight lows in mainly in
the low to mid 60s will be common throughout the region.

Bowlan

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 258 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025

Ongoing storms will be possible Sunday morning along the remnant
elevated frontal zone still draped over NE OK and NW AR, though
some uncertainty still exists in this scenario. Again, these
storms would be elevated in nature, but sill still be capable of
producing large hail within the strongest cores. A lull in
activity is expected across much of the area from mid Sunday
morning through the mid afternoon hours before more thunderstorm
chances arrive. By Sunday afternoon, stronger synoptic forcing
will begin to spread over the region as a deep mid level trough
begins to eject out over the Plains. Stronger southwesterly flow
aloft will overspread the sharpening dryline and again likely
initiate at least scattered thunderstorm activity by peak heating
Sunday afternoon over central Oklahoma. Environmental conditions
will be highly supportive of supercell storms evolving off the
dryline and moving east into eastern Oklahoma by late afternoon
and evening. All severe hazards will be in play with large to very
large hail and tornadoes possible, along with locally heavy
rainfall.

The active pattern will continue into Monday as the main upper
wave moves into the Plains. The stronger synoptic lift associated
with the wave is concerning in terms of looking at a more
widespread, higher end severe threat across eastern Oklahoma and
western Arkansas Monday afternoon and evening. The dryline remains
in the vicinity, with dewpoints into the 70s again Monday
afternoon over much of the region. once again, the expectation is
that thunderstorm development will begin along the dry line in
central Oklahoma, spreading eastward into eastern Oklahoma by late
afternoon. All severe hazards will be in play, with the potential
for higher end tornadoes or very large hail with any discrete
storms. Storms could then evolve into more of a linear QLCS into
the evening and overnight hours as they spread eastward. The
severe threat will linger into the overnight hours with this
activity, given the parameter space in place.

A cold front will move through the region from late Monday night
through the day Tuesday, with one final round of storms possible
along the front. These storms could still pose a severe
risk, depending on how storm evolve Monday evening and what type
of environment is still in place. Not everyone will see a storm
everyday, but continue to stay weather aware through the weekend
and early next week with severe chances possible with any storm
that does develop.

The upper trough axis and surface cold front will move through the
area by Tuesday afternoon, bringing an end to the more active
period. Noticeably cooler and drier air will filter into the area
for the middle to latter part of the week. Wednesday will be the
coolest day pf the period, with highs ranging form the mid 60s
across the north to mid 70s near the Red River. Lows will likely
drop into the 40s for many locations north of I-40 both Wednesday
night and less so Thursday night as a surface high settles over
the region. A slow warming trend will commence by late week into
next weekend. Stronger northwest flow aloft will also spread over
the Central Plains with the potential to see overnight MCS
activity across parts of the area as low level moisture increases
again into next weekend.

Bowlan

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 530 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025

Not much change from 06Z forecast. Expect VFR conditions to
prevail thru the period outside of storms with gradually
increasing mid and high cloud. Continued to use prob30 groups to
cover most favored time window for storms at the various sites.
Data indicates that a lower cloud cig will spread over the region
toward the very end of the forecast. I kept this a VFR cig for now
at the E OK and KFSM sites, except KMLC where I introduced an
MVFR cig.

Lacy

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   63  82  68  84 /  50  50  40  50
FSM   67  87  71  86 /  40  50  40  50
MLC   66  83  70  83 /  40  40  30  60
BVO   59  80  66  85 /  60  60  50  50
FYV   62  83  66  84 /  50  60  60  60
BYV   62  80  66  84 /  50  70  60  50
MKO   62  81  67  82 /  50  50  40  60
MIO   59  80  66  82 /  70  70  70  60
F10   62  81  68  82 /  40  40  30  60
HHW   66  82  68  82 /  60  40  20  60

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...30