214
FXUS64 KTSA 172331
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
631 PM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 632 PM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026

 - Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms continue
   through the weekend. Any stronger storms will be capable of
   locally gusty winds and heavy downpours.

 - A trend toward drier and hotter conditions expected through
   early next week. Heat indices will reach 105-110 F for many
   areas early next week. Expect excessive heat advisories.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 1150 AM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026

Scattered showers and storms are expected this afternoon through
mid evening before dissipating. Any stronger storms will be
capable of locally gusty downburst winds and heavy downpours.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Friday)
Issued at 1150 AM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026

Forecast will maintain a trend of drier and warmer weather through
the weekend. While isolated daily showers and storms may still
develop the overall coverage will trend lower as ridging aloft
strengthens. Temperatures will also trend upward with lesser daily
cloud cover. Dewpoints may well overachieve the current forecast
and, should that occur, a more widespread footprint of heat index
values in excess of advisory criteria would be realized. The
upward trend in temps continues into early next week and heat
advisory to potential excessive heat warning criteria appear
likely.

Upper ridging becomes centered over the southern High Plains by
Tuesday, however a weak cold front continues to be shown moving
into the region late Tuesday into Wednesday. A corridor of pre
frontal warming would be maximized by Tuesday afternoon and most
guidance maintains this as the hottest day with triple digit heat
possible. The degree of post frontal cooling is suspect given the
time of the year, however the stalled boundary and placement on
the periphery of the upper ridge could allow for a corridor of
higher precip chances and somewhat cooler temps. Placement of the
upper ridge and any frontal boundary evolution are uncertain and
will be the main features for the forecast mid to late next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 632 PM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026

Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms across nern OK
and nwrn AR will likely wane next couple hours. Some signal in model
data suggesting a low chance of high-based late night showers possible
nern OK, but potential for impacts at any one site too low to
mention. Otherwise, VFR conditions expected all sites through the
forecast period with mainly diurnal cu/low cloud and variable
mid/high clouds. South to southwest wind Saturday gusts to less than
20kt nern OK sites. Expected coverage of diurnal convection Saturday
afternoon too low to include at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   75  93  77  97 /  20  20  10   0
FSM   75  95  75  97 /  20  10   0   0
MLC   75  92  75  95 /  20  20   0  10
BVO   72  93  74  95 /  20  20  10   0
FYV   72  90  73  93 /  20  20  10  10
BYV   72  91  73  94 /  20  20  10  10
MKO   73  91  74  95 /  20  20   0   0
MIO   73  91  74  95 /  20  20  10  10
F10   73  91  73  94 /  20  20   0   0
HHW   74  91  74  95 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...69