183
FXUS64 KTSA 240155
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
855 PM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025

   - Hot and humid conditions will prevail for the next week with daily
     heat indices of 95-105 F across the area.

   - Daily isolated to scattered showers and storms likely much of
     this week, with trends suggesting Tuesday and Wednesday may
     have the higher coverage.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 851 PM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025

The current forecast remains on track this evening with no
significant changes required for the evening update. A quiet night
is in store with light south winds and lows in the mid to lower
70s areawide.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Tonight)
Issued at 204 PM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025

Hot and humid conditions persist across eastern Oklahoma and
northwest and west central Arkansas this afternoon, with current
heat index values mainly in the 95 to 100 degree range. Best
coverage of diurnal cumulus exists across southeast Oklahoma into
northwest Arkansas, and this region is where isolated
thunderstorms remain expected through sunset. A secondary area for
development may be northwest of I-44, where another well developed
cu field is evident and the HRRR continues to show development.
Otherwise, much of the overnight will be dry and quiet, with low
temperatures running near to just above seasonal normals.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Monday)
Issued at 204 PM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025

Near persistent conditions should be expected again tomorrow and
Wednesday, with the exception of lower wind speeds than the area
has seen the last few days. Diurnal thunderstorms are again
expected both days, focused in southeast Oklahoma and western
Arkansas, although an uptick in coverage remains likely.
Overnights should continue to feature near to just above normal
low temperatures. The pattern will begin to breakdown toward the
latter part of the week and into the weekend, leading to a lesser
potential for thunderstorms and slightly warmer afternoon
temperatures given a more westerly 850 mb wind component. Late in
the weekend and toward early next week, a low amplitude trough
looks to approach the region, which should lead to better coverage
of thunderstorms and lower daytime temperatures with an associated
front.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 623 PM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025

Diurnal isolated/widely scattered SHRA/TSRA over far ern OK and nwrn
AR expected to wane an hour or two into the forecast period.
Probability of impacts at any one site too low to mention. Activity
did approach the vicinity of FSM and FYV earlier. Convection over
south central KS and north central OK should remain west and north of
nern OK sites this evening. VFR conditions with a few high clouds
expected tonight, with diurnal cumulus developing again tomorrow
mid/late morning. Diurnal convection again expected Tuesday in far
ern OK and nwrn AR, but again, probability of impacts at any one site
is too low to mention in forecasts at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   75  92  74  92 /   0  10   0  10
FSM   75  95  74  95 /  10  20   0  20
MLC   74  92  73  92 /   0  10   0  20
BVO   73  92  71  92 /   0   0   0  10
FYV   73  92  71  92 /   0  20   0  20
BYV   72  91  71  91 /   0  20   0  20
MKO   73  90  72  90 /   0  10   0  10
MIO   73  91  71  91 /   0  10   0  20
F10   73  90  72  91 /   0  10   0  10
HHW   73  91  72  91 /   0  10   0  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....22
AVIATION...69