522
FXUS64 KTSA 232344
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
644 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1220 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

 - Near to slightly below normal temperatures continue through
   Friday for most locations.

 - Periods of low rain chances, mainly across northeast Oklahoma,
   through Saturday morning.

 - Another stretch of dangerous heat likely late this weekend
   into next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

Persistent cluster of showers and thunderstorms continues across
Osage/Pawnee counties this morning, with expectation of gradual
weakening through the afternoon as they move east. Most rain
amount`s will by light but isolated amounts of a half inch or so are
possible. Lingering cloud cover may keep temps down slightly along
OK/KS border and perhaps part of northwest AR this afternoon with
rest of the area rebounding into the lower 90s.

A more organized shortwave currently moving across the Central
Rockies will slowly move atop the upper ridge tonight through
Friday, with an additional round of more organized convection this
evening to our north, which potentially could build into parts of
northeast OK by late tonight.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Thursday)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

RED FLAG...NONE.

.DISCUSSION...

There is a low chance of a few showers and thunderstorms for
northern areas Thursday and Friday, expanding to more of the area by
Friday night and Saturday morning. Temperatures will remain near
normal through Friday with periods of increased cloud cover. Hot and
humid conditions return by this weekend through at least the middle
of next week. Fire weather concerns, however, will remain minimal
through the forecast period.

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 633 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

 - Near to slightly below normal temperatures continue through
Friday for most locations.

 - Periods of low rain chances, mainly across northeast Oklahoma,
through Saturday morning.

 - Another stretch of dangerous heat likely late this weekend into
next   week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 644 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

VFR is expected to prevail at all TAF site through this evening
and much of the overnight period, with mostly scattered mid/high
clouds. Guidance continues to suggest broken low/mid level clouds
will develop/stream into the area early Friday morning, mainly
impacting locations along and south of I-40. Maintained TEMPO
groups at KMLC and KFSM, where highest probabilities of seeing
low level stratus are. Impacts should be brief, with clouds
lifting by late morning. By mid to late morning, a shortwave
trough will move across far NE OK and far NW AR. Maintained a
PROB30 group at KBVO for chances of light to moderate rain through
mid- afternoon. There was low confidence on how far east the
precipitation associated with the shortwave will push.
PROB30/TEMPO groups may need to be added at KXNA, KROG, and KFYV
by mid/late afternoon if rain persists.

Mejia

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   77  93  81  99 /   0  20  30  20
FSM   75  93  79  98 /   0  10  10   0
MLC   77  94  80  97 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   73  90  78  98 /   0  30  40  10
FYV   71  89  76  94 /   0  20  20  20
BYV   69  89  75  94 /  10  20  20  20
MKO   74  92  78  96 /   0  10  10  10
MIO   72  88  77  96 /   0  20  40  20
F10   74  93  78  96 /   0  10  10  10
HHW   76  92  77  94 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...67