864
FXUS64 KTSA 161403
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
903 AM CDT Sat Aug 16 2025

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 902 AM CDT Sat Aug 16 2025

 - Dangerous heat will persist thru the weekend and into early
   next week. Heat headlines will likely be required for many
   locations each day.

 - Shower and storm chances increase across northeast Oklahoma and
   northwest Arkansas Tuesday then spread south Wednesday as a
   cold front moves into the area. This cold front will provide
   relief from the heat for the middle to latter part of next
   week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 902 AM CDT Sat Aug 16 2025

A broad ridge of high pressure aloft resides over the south-
central CONUS today. At the surface, a lee trough over the central
High Plains will maintain southerly flow over the region. The
gradient is stronger to our west, thus winds/gusts are not
expected to be strong. The ridge aloft will maintain hot and dry
weather for most, with afternoon heat indices again climbing to
near or above advisory levels most places. A Heat Advisory remains
in effect from noon to 8 PM for most of eastern Oklahoma and the
lower elevations of northwest Arkansas. The latest short term data
suggests afternoon storm coverage should be considerably less than
yesterday, and confined mainly to the terrain of western Arkansas.
Will continue to monitor and update forecast as needed. Locally
heavy rainfall is the main threat, along with some gusty winds.

Lacy

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 1215 AM CDT Sat Aug 16 2025

An upper ridge will remain over the area today resulting in another
hot and humid day. Low level thermal fields suggest most places will
be a degree or two cooler than they were Friday, so heat index
values should also be slightly lower. Thus, the current heat
advisory looks good at this time. Isolated afternoon convection
cannot be ruled out, but coverage should be less than Friday. The
NBM keeps pops below mentionable levels, and have done the same with
this forecast.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 1214 AM CDT Sat Aug 16 2025

The hot and humid weather will continue through Tuesday, with heat
headlines likely each day. Isolated afternoon convection will
continue to be possible, but again coverage looks to remain too low
to include in the forecast through Monday. By Tuesday, the upper
ridge begins to retrograde to the west, allowing a weak cold front
to approach from the north. Shower and storm coverage will increase
Tuesday across parts of northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas as
a result.

Shower and storm chances expand south across the area Wednesday, and
continue in the south through the end of the week as the frontal
boundary stalls just to the south of our area. Cooler temperatures
are expected for the latter half of the week, with below normal
temperatures looking more and more likely at that time.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 610 AM CDT Sat Aug 16 2025

Near persistence forecast remains for today with VFR conditions
and isolated afternoon storms being too low coverage to warrant
mention at specific terminals.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   97  77  98  77 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   99  77 100  77 /  10   0  10   0
MLC   97  76  97  73 /   0   0  10   0
BVO   97  73  98  72 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   96  72  97  72 /   0   0  10   0
BYV   96  73  98  73 /  10   0  10   0
MKO   97  75  98  75 /   0   0  10   0
MIO   97  74  98  74 /   0   0   0   0
F10   97  74  97  73 /   0   0  10   0
HHW   95  75  96  74 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
     OKZ049-053>068-070>076.

AR...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
     ARZ001-002-019-020-029.

&&

$$

UPDATE...30
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...07