852
FXUS64 KTSA 191816
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
116 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Sunday)
Issued at 116 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024

The main upper jet is well to the north near the Canadian border,
with a cutoff low over the Southwest. An expansive surface ridge
centered over the Ohio Valley remains in control of our weather in
the near term.

There should be less mid cloud and wind than there was last night
across E OK, thus expecting lows to dip cooler there than last
night. Another mainly sunny day on Sunday with highs running above
average close to 80 degrees.

Lacy

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 116 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024

The cutoff low is expected to open up into a wave as it lifts
northeast toward the central Plains early next week. Ensemble
cluster data warrants keeping some PoPs and slight chance thunder
across NE OK into NW AR Monday afternoon and night as the system
slides across the Plains to our north. Winds will pick up also,
increasing fire weather concerns.

A low-amplitude flow pattern will continue across the CONUS next
week, with the flow still well to our north. Expect temps to
continue to climb to well above average for this time of year into
the upper 80s to near 90 for Tuesday and Wednesday. A front will
push down into the region during the day Wednesday in association
with a passing wave over the Great Lakes, but will not provide
much cooling with temps still above average. The latest load of
model consensus data (NBM) has removed PoPs with this front into
Thursday, though the 12Z GFS shows some potential for showers and
storms with the front Wednesday and the 00Z EC shows potential
Thursday night into Friday with the retreating front. Given the
ongoing drought will keep the dry forecast for now, but this could
change again with future updates.

Warm and windy conditions next Saturday ahead of the next front
for Sunday suggest higher potential for fire weather issues by
this time.

Lacy

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1204 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024

VFR conditions are expected for all sites through the period.
Skies remain mostly clear across the area, though some mid clouds
could occasionally move over E OK sites. Sfc winds remain light
out of the south/ southeast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   47  79  48  81 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   47  79  48  83 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   45  81  47  83 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   42  80  43  82 /   0   0   0  10
FYV   39  80  44  81 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   45  79  47  81 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   45  78  45  80 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   45  79  46  81 /   0   0   0   0
F10   45  79  46  81 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   46  80  47  81 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...43