577
FXUS64 KTSA 031753
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1253 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1252 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

   - Low to medium (20-50%) chance of showers and storms through
     the weekend. Locally heavy rainfall, downburst winds, and
     lightning will be the primary hazards.

   - Humid conditions will return by the end of this week with
     heat indices reaching 95-100 F across the area by Saturday
     and continuing through early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Tonight )
Issued at 1252 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

Ongoing showers across eastern Oklahoma were associated with a
weakening 700-mb boundary oriented northwest to southeast from
Creek co to Le Flore co. This activity should continue to weaken
through the afternoon hours as the boundary becomes less defined.
Additional showers/storms were developing across south central
Oklahoma associated with isentropic lift interacting with a
secondary elevated boundary/instability axis. This activity is
expected to expand into southeast Oklahoma through the afternoon
hours. Slower storm motions combined with precipitable water
values in excess of 2 inches will help to create areas of heavy
rainfall with rain rates of 1-2 inches per hour. These conditions
will aid in a continued flash flood threat across portions of
southeast Oklahoma into this evening, especially over locations
that received 1-3 inches of rainfall in Pittsburg co this morning.
Weak flow aloft should continue to limit overall severe
potentials through this evening.

Convection should begin to weaken/lessen in coverage through the
evening hours with any lingering shower potential across far
southeast Oklahoma. At the same time, a developing MCV currently
in southwest Texas is forecast to lift east northeast within the
mean mid layer flow tonight. In response, additional
showers/storms are progged to lift toward the Red River, reaching
southeast Oklahoma late tonight into Friday morning. Again, with
ample amounts of moisture in place, a heavy rain threat with flash
flood potential will be the main hazard tonight/Friday morning.

Ongoing cloud cover and precip will help to keep afternoon temps
from reaching their full potential with highs in the 80s to near
90 deg. Overnight lows tonight should remain in the 70s for most
locations.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Thursday)
Issued at 1252 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

The MCV is forecast to lift into the region Friday with
shower/storm chances spreading from southwest to northeast over
the CWA. The greater storm potential is across southeast Oklahoma
through the morning hours, where a continued heavy rain threat and
flash flood potential exists. This disturbance looks to exit the
CWA during the day Friday ahead of a shortwave moving out into the
Plains Friday afternoon. The southern portion of the associated
trof axis is progged to move into the region Friday night/Saturday
as the shortwave lifts northeast into the Upper Midwest. Latest
indications are for the lingering trof axis to remain over the
region into Sunday before exiting Sunday night.

With the trof axis over the region and low level moisture vectors
still advecting moisture into the region, shower and storm
chances will remain forecast through the Holiday weekend. The
greater potential looks to be over the northern half of the CWA,
closer to the southern periphery of the trof axis. Through the
Friday afternoon to Sunday night time frame, showers/storms are
not expected to be constant with the greater chances during the
daytime Saturday and Sunday. Precip coverage Friday evening/night
looks to be more isolated before the boundary moves in, and in
response much of the CWA at this time looks to remain dry for
holiday outdoor activities.

Daytime instability is forecast to increase for the weekend while
flow aloft remains marginal. Thus, an isolated severe potential
could develop each afternoon Saturday and Sunday, while a locally
heavy rain threat remains. Temperatures through the Holiday
weekend should remain slightly below to near seasonal average.

Behind the exiting trof axis, a ridge of high pressure builds back
over the Desert Southwest with the CWA on the eastern periphery of
the ridge for the first half of next week. This puts the CWA under
more northwesterly upper level flow, which will allow for a couple
disturbances to drop through the region Monday through Wednesday.
Shower and storm chances remain forecast with each of these
shortwaves. At the same time, temperatures look to warm back to
around the seasonal average for July with ongoing humid conditions
continuing through next week. Heat index values of mid 90s to near
102 deg are forecast each day this weekend and next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1203 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

Scattered showers with a few thunderstorms continues across
eastern Oklahoma just south of the Tulsa area to just north of
McAlester. Terminals in these areas will remain susceptible to
periodic showers and isolated thunderstorms into the afternoon
before rain diminishes. No severe weather is expected, but any
storms could result in brief heavy rain and lightning. In general,
VFR conditions should continue for all terminals.

Sky cover will thin overnight before another storm system
increases clouds and rain chances again Friday morning across
eastern Oklahoma. Confidence in any specific location is low for
now, so just added vicinity showers for now. Winds will remain
light and out of the south through the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   71  89  73  89 /   0  20  10  30
FSM   73  92  73  93 /  10  20  10  10
MLC   71  87  71  90 /  20  40  10  20
BVO   68  88  70  89 /   0  20  10  30
FYV   69  88  69  89 /   0  20  10  10
BYV   69  89  70  91 /   0  20  10  10
MKO   70  88  71  89 /   0  20  10  20
MIO   69  89  71  89 /   0  20  10  30
F10   70  86  71  89 /  10  30  10  20
HHW   73  86  71  90 /  30  40  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...06