237
FXUS64 KTSA 011103
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
603 AM CDT Tue Sep 1 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 601 AM CDT Tue Sep 1 2026

 - An extended period of hot and dry weather will persist through
   the week. Heat headlines will be needed at times.

 - Rain chances look very low through the forecast period.

 - The ongoing drought situation will continue to worsen.
   Localized fire weather concerns will develop each day.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Thursday)
Issued at 1145 PM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

Near persistent daily trends are expected through Thursday.
Attention will somewhat turn to toward the tropical system moving
into SE TX on Tuesday and making slow progress northwestward
through Wednesday. While an isolated shower may develop across SE
OK late Wednesday or Thursday, the overall coverage will remain
very low and no meaningful rainfall is expected. The majority of
guidance does suggest temperatures trending a few degrees cooler
however dewpoints are also shown to trend upward slightly. The net
effect may see apparent temperatures warm slightly and a broader
heat advisory footprint may be needed.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 1133 PM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

The weather pattern shows no obvious sign of large scale changes
through the upcoming weekend. Temperatures will continue much
above normal and heat stress impacts should be anticipated for
outdoor events over the upcoming holiday weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 603 AM CDT Tue Sep 1 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the period. South winds will
become gusty during the afternoon at the NE OK sites, with gusts
between 15 and 20 kts possible.

Lacy

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL  102  79 100  78 /   0   0   0   0
FSM  103  76 102  77 /   0   0   0   0
MLC  102  76 100  75 /   0   0   0   0
BVO  102  74 100  74 /   0   0   0   0
FYV  101  73  99  73 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   99  75  98  73 /   0   0   0   0
MKO  100  74  99  74 /   0   0   0   0
MIO  100  76  99  76 /   0   0   0   0
F10  101  75  99  74 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   99  75  97  74 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
     OKZ055-056-060>062-067-354.

AR...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
     ARZ129-219-220.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...30