


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
022 FXUS64 KTSA 100523 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1223 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1223 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025 - Isolated late afternoon showers and storms possible in mainly southeast Oklahoma today. - A more active weather regime returns for the weekend on into next week with daily thunderstorm chances. - Afternoon heat indices will creep up into the 95-105F range each of the next few afternoons. The warmest days will be Thursday and Friday. && .SHORT TERM... (Today) Issued at 1223 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025 Hot and humid conditions will prevail today, with afternoon heat index values ranging from the upper 90s to near 105 degrees in most places, and actual air temperatures in the low to mid 90s. Much like today, isolated late afternoon showers and thunderstorms may develop, mainly across parts of southeast Oklahoma, but any storms will be short lived. && .LONG TERM... (Tonight through Wednesday) Issued at 1223 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025 Friday looks to be the last dry day for awhile. Temperatures will once again warm into the low to mid 90s, but heat index values will likely be a bit lower than Thursday due to slightly lower dewpoints. Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase Friday night and Saturday as a weak cold front sags south into the area. This boundary and/or convective outflow will continue to trigger showers and storms through the weekend, with the better chances likely shifting a bit south by Sunday compared to Saturday. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible over the weekend. General upper troughing early next week will result in continued storm chances, but coverage will likely be lower than over the weekend. Another frontal boundary looks to move into the area around the middle of next week and will once again increase the coverage of showers and storms. Temperatures will likely remain below normal through the period as well. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1223 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025 VFR conditions should prevail through the period. Some non-TAF observation sites are showing signs of patchy minor visibility reductions, giving credence to continuing the TEMPOs for similar around sunrise at the NW AR terminals. Late morning into afternoon cu development should be expected again today, with very isolated thunderstorm potential. The chance of impacts from thunderstorms at any one terminal is very low and no explicit mention will be included as a result. Gusty southerly winds will occur this afternoon at the NE OK sites. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 95 77 94 74 / 0 10 0 30 FSM 95 76 96 75 / 10 10 0 10 MLC 94 75 94 74 / 20 10 0 10 BVO 94 73 94 71 / 0 10 0 50 FYV 92 72 92 71 / 0 10 0 20 BYV 93 72 93 72 / 0 10 10 20 MKO 94 75 94 73 / 0 10 0 20 MIO 93 75 93 71 / 0 10 10 40 F10 93 75 92 73 / 0 10 0 20 HHW 93 75 94 73 / 20 10 0 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...05 LONG TERM....05 AVIATION...22