881
FXUS64 KTSA 290530
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1230 AM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1230 AM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

 - Headline worthy heat continues into Wednesday, with afternoon
   heat indices of 105-115F. Dangerous heat is likely to persist
   for parts of the area through Friday.

 - Rain and storm chances to gradually increase over the next
   couple days especially in the eastern parts of the area.

 - A more noticeable front will bring much more pleasant weather
   for the weekend into early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 1203 AM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

Hot and humid conditions will continue Wednesday, and have
upgraded much of eastern Oklahoma to an extreme heat warning for
afternoon heat index values at or above 110 degrees. Maintained
the heat advisory across far eastern Oklahoma and west central
Arkansas, where more cloud cover and greater coverage of showers
and thunderstorms are expected, casting more uncertainty on just
how hot it will be and on the resultant heat index values.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop as
early as Wednesday morning, mainly across far eastern Oklahoma and
northwest Arkansas, with the activity expected to persist and
possibly even increase some during the afternoon. High
temperatures Wednesday will generally range from the mid 90s to
near or just above 100.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 1203 AM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

After a brief break in shower and storm chances Wednesday evening,
an uptick in shower and storm coverage is expected again later
Wednesday night into Thursday. Once again, the eastern part of the
forecast area will be the most favored location for showers and
storms. Heat headlines may again be needed in some places, but
overall Thursday may see a bit cooler temperatures and slightly
lower heat index values than Wednesday.

Once more hot day with likely heat headlines is expected Friday
before a cold front brings some heat relief for the weekend into
early next week. Temperatures will likely fall back to below the
seasonal averages Saturday through Monday, before warming back to
near or slightly above normal by the middle part of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

Extensive mid and high cloud will result in VFR CIGS at least through
the morning all sites. Scattered SHRA/TSRA continues possible nwrn AR
sites early this morning, with increasing chances during the day into
the evening. MVFR VSBYS expected in this activity, otherwise VFR
conditions persist outside of convection. Wind generally east to
southeast and less than 10 kts all sites this forecast period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL  100  78  98  80 /  10  20  20  20
FSM   99  77  96  78 /  40  30  40   0
MLC  100  79  98  79 /  10  10  20   0
BVO   98  75  97  76 /  20  30  20  30
FYV   95  73  92  74 /  60  30  40  10
BYV   94  72  91  73 /  50  20  40  20
MKO  100  76  97  77 /  10  20  20  10
MIO   96  75  93  76 /  20  30  40  20
F10  100  76  98  77 /  10  10  20  10
HHW  100  78  98  78 /   0   0  20   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for
     OKZ058-059-063-068-069-154-172.

     Extreme Heat Warning from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening
     for OKZ049-053-055>057-060>062-064>067-070-071-073>075-176-
     254-272-276-354-376.

AR...Heat Advisory from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for
     ARZ129-219-220-229.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...69