702
FXUS64 KTSA 221609
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1009 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of today )
Issued at 1009 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

Surface high pressure today across the central plains
will continue to drift south and east. Winds will
generally  remain on the light side, with afternoon max
temperatures running close to what was observed yesterday.
Remaining first period elements are in line and will be left as
they are.

No update is planned at this time.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 103 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

Overnight tonight it will be cool once again, with lows of 30-35F
for most areas. By Saturday, southerly flow will develop once again,
bringing warmer and somewhat more moist air back to the area. High
temperatures will jump into the 60s, with widespread 70+ highs for
Sunday. Winds will become quite breezy on Sunday as well, with
gusts of 25-40 mph, highest north of I-40.

A fast moving trough will pass through the central Plains Sunday,
sending a cold front south and into the area Monday. However,
given that the upper level support will be quickly racing east,
this will be another dry cold front. The main impacts will be a
return to highs in the 50s and lows near freezing with a period of
breezy northerly winds. Brief upper level ridging will keep
conditions dry and at least partly sunny through Tuesday.

For the middle to end of next week, a Pacific trough will swing into
the region. Meanwhile, an amplifying ridge into Alaska will send a
second upper level trough south into the northern Plains. Ensemble
guidance has been erratic the last few days trying to figure out the
exact timing of the troughs and the degree to which they will
interact with each other. With that said, there is decent confidence
that a cold front will move through Wednesday to Thursday. The
trajectory and orientation will again limit precipitation potential,
with just a slight chance of showers for much of the area, and the
highest chances in northwest AR. Much cooler air will then advect
into the area, though ensemble guidance has generally trended warmer
for this time frame over the last day or so.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 429 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

VFR conditions and light winds will prevail through the period,
precluding any aviation concerns.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   57  35  65  51 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   58  35  67  46 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   59  34  68  51 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   57  29  65  48 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   54  28  64  44 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   53  32  63  47 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   55  33  65  50 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   53  31  63  49 /   0   0   0   0
F10   57  34  66  51 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   62  35  68  49 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...22