287
FXUS64 KTSA 041759
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1259 PM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1259 PM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

   - The 4th of July holiday festivities should be mostly dry
     (10-20% chance of rain) tonight.

   - There will be rain and storm chances most days of this
     forecast, including this weekend into much of next week. Some
     periods will have higher chances than others, and will
     depend on the timing of waves aloft moving across the region
     on the eastern side of what will be a strong subtropical
     ridge over the Southwest.

   - Afternoon heat indices will creep up into the 95-100F range
     next week as the subtropical ridge to our west strengthens
     and its scope broadens.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight)
Issued at 1259 PM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

Water vapor satellite imagery from GOES-19 shows a deep plume of
moisture spreading northeastward into eastern OK and western AR
early this afternoon. This moisture advection is courtesy of an
MCV swirling over central TX, as well as an approaching shortwave
trough that will be ejecting off the Rockies this evening. PWATs
have already increased to nearly 2 inches across portions of
southeast OK. Light to moderate shower activity continues to fall
across southeast OK, lingering from this morning. Meanwhile,
latest radar imagery shows more diurnally-driven, spotty
convection beginning to develop in far eastern OK and west-
central AR. Additional convective development is possible through
the remainder of the afternoon. Although flash flooding likely
wont be a concern today, brief moderate to heavy rainfall will
remain possible through this afternoon, especially with any
convection that develops. Much of the precipitation should end by
fireworks time this evening, though do have some mentionable PoPs
(15-20% chance) included across portions of far southeast OK
through about 10 PM. Near seasonal overnight lows will persist
tonight, generally low-mid 70s everywhere, under mostly clear to
partly cloudy skies.

Mejia

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Friday)
Issued at 1259 PM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

A shortwave trough will eject off the Rockies tonight and move
over the Central Plains by tomorrow morning. As a result, a
complex of thunderstorms is forecast to develop across western KS
this evening. Though these storms likely won`t directly affect
the forecast area, outflow from these storms may move into
northeastern OK by tomorrow morning and into southeast OK and
western AR by the afternoon. Hi-res models continue to indicated
isolated to scattered storms developing during the daytime
along/near these boundaries. However, with weak forcing and
ridging aloft mostly in control, precipitation chances should be
very hit/miss.

Daily low-medium chances (20-40%) of showers and thunderstorms
will likely be a theme through the weekend and through at least
the middle part of next week as a series of weak perturbations
move across the central CONUS and fight the upper-level ridging
occurring overhead. Highest rain chances will likely be during
the afternoon each day, though chances may linger into the early
evening hours. Ridging builds and strengthens over the Desert
Southwest by midweek and rain/thunderstorm chances seem to be more
favored across the eastern part of the forecast area for the
latter half of the week.

Temperatures will remain right around to just above seasonal
average each day through about midweek, generally upper 80s and
lower 90s. As ridging builds eastward by midweek, temperatures
will climb above seasonal average late in the week. Afternoon
heat indices will remain in the mid-upper 90s to near 100F each
afternoon through the long-term period. A few locations may
approach heat indices around 105F Wednesday-Friday next week.

Mejia

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 623 AM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

Aside from any direct impacts from heavy showers or thunderstorms,
VFR conditions are likely to prevail for all sites through the
forecast period. Showers have increased this morning across
S-Central OK and SE OK, slowly moving northward. This activity
may affect E OK sites through the morning hours and there is a low
chance of brief MVFR conditions, primarily for MLC. Lightning
activity has been minimal as of writing, but could still see
isolated thunderstorms develop through the morning/ early
afternoon hours. There is a low probability of additional isolated
showers and thunderstorms developing this afternoon across E OK
and NW AR, but coverage is likely to remain too low to include in
TAFs. South winds increase this afternoon, gusting 15 to 20 kts,
before subsiding this evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   73  90  73  91 /  10  20  20  40
FSM   74  93  74  93 /  10  10  10  30
MLC   71  90  71  91 /  10  20  10  30
BVO   71  89  70  90 /  10  20  20  40
FYV   71  90  70  89 /  10  20  10  50
BYV   70  90  70  89 /  10  20  10  50
MKO   71  90  72  88 /  10  20  10  40
MIO   71  89  72  88 /  10  30  20  50
F10   71  88  71  88 /  10  20  10  40
HHW   71  91  71  92 /  20  10   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...43