


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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388 FXUS64 KTSA 041703 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1203 PM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1124 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025 - While there is a low to medium (20-40%) chance of showers and storms from the morning thru the afternoon on July 4th, the evening hours should be dry and favorable for the holiday festivities. - There will be rain and storm chances most days of this forecast, including the weekend on into much of next week. Some periods will have higher chances than others, and will depend on the timing of waves aloft moving across the region on the eastern side of what will be a strong subtropical ridge over the Southwest. - Afternoon heat indices will creep up into the 95-100F range next week as the subtropical ridge to our west strengthens and its scope broadens. && .SHORT TERM... (Through tonight ) Issued at 938 AM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025 A minor disturbance is lifting into eastern Oklahoma this morning, bringing an increase in shower activity. In general, this will continue into the afternoon before diminishing. The best chance of rain will remain across eastern OK with a lower threat for northwest Arkansas. An isolated thunderstorm or two can`t be ruled out.However, any storm activity should diminish by this evening with mild and dry conditions. High temperatures will be in the mid to upper 80s, but fall to the lower 80s by this evening. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 1041 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025 The shortwave trough ejecting out of the Southwest is likely to aid in forcing a storm complex as it tops the developing southwest CONUS ridge late Friday into Saturday. The latest HRRR suggests that outflow from a decaying MCS will push into NE OK by Saturday morning and could force more showers and storms. By Saturday afternoon there are some indications that the boundary will push far enough southeast to warrant at least slight chance for storms across portions of NW AR and SE OK. The tailing portion of the aforementioned wave will drop down into our region Sunday into Monday, bringing increased chances for rain and storms. The subtropical ridge over the Southwest strengthens as we head deeper into next week, so the more favored zone for better rain/storm chances will be the eastern half of the forecast area (i.e. far eastern OK into western AR) and especially toward the middle of next week with a potential wave sliding thru in the NW flow aloft. As mentioned earlier, afternoon heat indices will be creeping up into the upper 90s to near 100 as well, especially across eastern OK into west- central AR. This is of course better than it could be this time of year. Looking further down the road into the following week, there are indications that the subtropical ridge will try to build east over the southern Plains, which could lead to a stretch of hotter and drier weather. We`ll just have to wait and see. Lacy && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1158 AM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025 Scattered to occasionally broken cloud cover in the 2-6 kft layer will continue through the afternoon. Thicker cloud cover and somewhat lower cloud bases will occur across eastern Oklahoma. A few showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue until late afternoon before diminishing. The main impacts would be lightning, brief heavy rain, and briefly gusty wind. Overnight skies will mostly clear out, but lower clouds return to eastern Oklahoma Saturday morning with a slight chance of a few showers. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 73 90 73 91 / 10 20 20 40 FSM 74 93 74 93 / 10 10 10 30 MLC 71 90 71 91 / 10 20 10 30 BVO 71 89 70 90 / 10 20 20 40 FYV 71 90 70 89 / 10 20 10 50 BYV 70 90 70 89 / 10 20 10 50 MKO 71 90 72 88 / 10 20 10 40 MIO 71 89 72 88 / 10 30 20 50 F10 71 88 71 88 / 10 20 10 40 HHW 71 91 71 92 / 20 10 0 10 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...06 LONG TERM....30 AVIATION...06