066
FXUS64 KTSA 200124
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
824 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1209 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025

 - Dangerous heat persists areawide today, and for southeast
   Oklahoma on Wednesday.

 - A cold front moves into/through the region tonight and
   Wednesday bringing increasing shower and thunderstorm chances
   as well as somewhat cooler air.

 - Another cold front is forecast late weekend into next week with
   increased rain chances and well below normal temperatures
   expected.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 824 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025

The overall message for tonight`s forecast remains on track, with
an expected decrease in thunderstorm coverage and intensity
through the remainder of the evening, as well as a southward trend
in the main axis. Some minor tweaks have been made to the going
POP and Wx forecast to account for current trends and the latest
CAM data, but other than incorporating the expiration of today`s
Heat Advisory, no other major changes have been made.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight)
Issued at 1248 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025

Upper level ridging is now well to the west of the area, but a very
hot lower level thermal profile remains in place. Heat indices will
peak this afternoon at 105-110 F for most of the area. Decent
instability with some weak forcing from an approaching shortwave
trough will kick off isolated showers and storms this afternoon
and evening, particularly across the higher terrain and near the
KS border. Storm activity will spread south into the rest of the
area this evening or overnight but coverage will remain scattered
(10-40% chance). A few storms could become marginally severe with
damaging wind gusts and locally heavy rainfall. Low temperatures
tonight will remain mild, mostly in the 70s, but will be somewhat
cooler than this morning as cooler air filters in from the north.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Tuesday)
Issued at 1248 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025

The cold front will continue pushing south Wednesday. Northern areas
will be mostly dry, with only a 10-20% chance of a shower or
thunderstorm Wednesday. High temperatures will drop to the upper 80s
to low 90s as cold air advection increases slightly. There will be a
better chance of precipitation further south (closer to the front).
High temperatures and heat indices will cool slightly from today for
areas near I-40 and south, but remain high enough to justify one
final Heat Advisory. Though this should be the last one for now.
Conditions will then dry out for the remainder of the week with
temperatures running near or a bit below normal. Rain chances will
generally remain 15% or less until the weekend.

By next Sunday an anomalously deep trough will dive into the eastern
USA. It will weaken and further displace the high pressure area to
the west. Significantly cooler air will move in, with conditions
perhaps feeling more like late September or early October than late
August. Highs will fall into the 70s to low 80s, possibly lower.
With high PWAT due to robust moisture transport along the low level
jet, sufficient instability, and good upper level forcing, rain
chances will likely rise considerably. There is good ensemble
support for multiple rounds of widespread (and possibly heavy
rainfall). With that said there is timing uncertainty as well as
uncertainty with respect to the areas where rain will focus. For
that reason, Pops are still mostly below 50%. Either way, this will
be a substantial change from the weather seen lately.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 604 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025

Ongoing isolated to scattered thunderstorms should pose a threat
for on-station impacts at all terminals through 02Z, when they
should diminish in coverage and intensity due to the loss of
daytime heating. The potential for these impacts varies by site
depending on the current radar presentation and surface
observations, with ROG being more likely than other sites. Will
also carry a mention of VRB winds with gusts 20 to 25 kts
near thunderstorms at most sites. Outflow boundary from more
organized convection near the Kansas border should cause a period
of gusty north winds at BVO and possibly at TUL/RVS during the
first couple of hours. Thunderstorm concerns should improve after
02Z, with generally light winds and prevailing VFR conditions.
Will maintain the mention of MVFR visibilities at BVO around
sunrise and also introduce similar at FYV. Toward the end of the
TAF period, widely scattered thunderstorms may become a concern
again for MLC and the W AR terminals, but coverage appears low
enough to preclude a mention for now.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   74  94  72  92 /  20  20   0   0
FSM   75  96  74  94 /  30  30  10  10
MLC   74  95  71  92 /  30  20  10  10
BVO   69  93  66  91 /  20  10   0   0
FYV   69  92  66  89 /  50  20  10  10
BYV   70  90  66  88 /  50  20   0  10
MKO   73  95  71  91 /  20  20   0  10
MIO   72  93  68  90 /  20  10   0   0
F10   72  94  70  91 /  20  20   0  10
HHW   74  96  73  92 /  20  30  20  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Wednesday for OKZ049-053-
     072>076.

AR...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Wednesday for ARZ019-020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...22