Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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388
FXUS64 KTSA 041703
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1203 PM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1124 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

   - While there is a low to medium (20-40%) chance of showers and
     storms from the morning thru the afternoon on July 4th, the
     evening hours should be dry and favorable for the holiday
     festivities.

   - There will be rain and storm chances most days of this
     forecast, including the weekend on into much of next week.
     Some periods will have higher chances than others, and will
     depend on the timing of waves aloft moving across the region
     on the eastern side of what will be a strong subtropical
     ridge over the Southwest.

   - Afternoon heat indices will creep up into the 95-100F range
     next week as the subtropical ridge to our west strengthens
     and its scope broadens.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 938 AM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

A minor disturbance is lifting into eastern Oklahoma this
morning, bringing an increase in shower activity. In general, this
will continue into the afternoon before diminishing. The best
chance of rain will remain across eastern OK with a lower threat
for northwest Arkansas. An isolated thunderstorm or two can`t be
ruled out.However, any storm activity should diminish by this
evening with mild and dry conditions.

High temperatures will be in the mid to upper 80s, but fall to the
lower 80s by this evening.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 1041 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

The shortwave trough ejecting out of the Southwest is likely to
aid in forcing a storm complex as it tops the developing southwest
CONUS ridge late Friday into Saturday. The latest HRRR suggests
that outflow from a decaying MCS will push into NE OK by Saturday
morning and could force more showers and storms. By Saturday
afternoon there are some indications that the boundary will push
far enough southeast to warrant at least slight chance for storms
across portions of NW AR and SE OK. The tailing portion of the
aforementioned wave will drop down into our region Sunday into
Monday, bringing increased chances for rain and storms. The
subtropical ridge over the Southwest strengthens as we head deeper
into next week, so the more favored zone for better rain/storm
chances will be the eastern half of the forecast area (i.e. far
eastern OK into western AR) and especially toward the middle of
next week with a potential wave sliding thru in the NW flow aloft.

As mentioned earlier, afternoon heat indices will be creeping up
into the upper 90s to near 100 as well, especially across eastern
OK into west- central AR. This is of course better than it could
be this time of year. Looking further down the road into the
following week, there are indications that the subtropical ridge
will try to build east over the southern Plains, which could lead
to a stretch of hotter and drier weather. We`ll just have to wait
and see.

Lacy

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1158 AM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

Scattered to occasionally broken cloud cover in the 2-6 kft layer will
continue through the afternoon. Thicker cloud cover and somewhat
lower cloud bases will occur across eastern Oklahoma. A few
showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue until late
afternoon before diminishing. The main impacts would be lightning,
brief heavy rain, and briefly gusty wind.

Overnight skies will mostly clear out, but lower clouds return to
eastern Oklahoma Saturday morning with a slight chance of a few
showers.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   73  90  73  91 /  10  20  20  40
FSM   74  93  74  93 /  10  10  10  30
MLC   71  90  71  91 /  10  20  10  30
BVO   71  89  70  90 /  10  20  20  40
FYV   71  90  70  89 /  10  20  10  50
BYV   70  90  70  89 /  10  20  10  50
MKO   71  90  72  88 /  10  20  10  40
MIO   71  89  72  88 /  10  30  20  50
F10   71  88  71  88 /  10  20  10  40
HHW   71  91  71  92 /  20  10   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...06