810
FXUS64 KTSA 212329
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
629 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1114 AM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

 - Very hot conditions are expected this afternoon, with
   afternoon heat indices of 105-115 for much of the area.

 - A weak cold front will bring some heat relief Wednesday and
   Thursday, but the heat will return Friday.

 - Mainly dry weather is expected until at least Thursday, with
   low rain chances developing toward the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 1114 AM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

Very hot conditions are anticipated this afternoon with several
locations already reporting HI of over 105 at 11AM. Expansion of
low level thermal ridge across the local area will result in
afternoon highs a few degrees hotter and widespread triple digits
through eastern OK and the AR River Valley in west central AR. In
addition a corridor of mid 70s dew points likely to pool south of
an approaching front as as such, HI likely to top out 105-115 in
most areas, and a few spots could conceivably push 120.
Configuration of heat headlines for today will be unchanged,
though a section of northwest AR along the Missouri border will
need consideration for an upgrade.

Front will gradually push south tonight with drier low level air
eventually spreading across the region from the north. A stray
shower or storm is possible with the arrival of the front, with
odds slightly favoring the terrain of northwest AR. POPs for now
will be kept below 15%.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Tuesday)
Issued at 1114 AM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

Above mentioned front will bring a respite from the heat and
humidity for a couple of days, though points near the Red River
may still see HI in the 100-015 range Wednesday afternoon. Dew
points will lower into the 60s and high temps should trend near or
even a bit below normal through Thursday.

Front will begin to lose influence by Friday as low level flow
returns from the south. There are indications of a piece of
shortwave energy topping the upper ridge with some increase in
thunderstorm chances Thursday night and again Friday night as
well. Beyond that the ridge is forecast to expand back across the
region this weekend and early next week, beginning another
stretch of hot weather and additional headlines. Should note that
NBM forecast highs are likely a bit warm next week, but triple
digit heat appears likely in any case.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 629 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

A few isolated showers and storms have developed along a frontal
boundary across NE OK and NW AR this afternoon. This activity will
dissipate over the next couple hours with the loss of daytime
heating. Chances are still low to affect any TAF sites, with KFYV
and KTUL likely having the best chance of seeing brief impacts.
Otherwise VFR conditions will prevail with little cloud cover and
winds becoming northeasterly this evening to east northeasterly
into the day tomorrow around 10 knots.

Bowlan

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   76  92  73  93 /  20   0   0  10
FSM   78  96  74  93 /  20   0   0   0
MLC   79  95  74  95 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   73  91  70  91 /  20   0   0  10
FYV   73  90  68  90 /  20   0   0   0
BYV   69  88  67  87 /  10   0   0   0
MKO   76  93  72  92 /  20   0   0   0
MIO   71  89  69  90 /  10  10   0  10
F10   76  92  72  92 /  10   0   0   0
HHW   78  96  74  92 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ049-053-
     055>071-073>075-154-172-176-254-272-276-354-376.

AR...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ001-002-
     010-011-119-120-129-219-220-229.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...04