349
FXUS64 KTSA 031849
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
149 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 132 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

  - Severe storm chances return Friday morning, especially across
    SE OK and W-Central AR.

  - Rain chances continue through the weekend with heavy rain and
    flood potential increasing, especially across SE OK and
    W-Central AR.

  - Much cooler weather arrives this weekend, with rain possibly
    changing to snow Sunday morning north of I-40. A freeze is
    expected in some locations Sunday or Monday morning.

&&


.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of this afternoon )
Issued at 132 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

Mild and showery weather will continue for the next few hours before
diminishing this evening. Scattered thunderstorms remain possible
for portions of southeast OK into northwest AR through the
afternoon. As the lower levels are quite stable and these storms
are elevated, the main threat would be marginally severe hail. Temperatures
will remain in the mid 50s for the remainder of the afternoon,
eventually falling to the upper 40s to low 50s tonight for most
locations.

The next round of rainfall will arrive overnight tonight into Friday
morning. Ahead of this rainfall, the low level boundary which is
currently south of the Red River will surge back into the area. This
will allow for deeper moisture and better instability to spread
north, though mainly across southeast OK and west-central AR.
Meanwhile, a strong low level jet will increase shear and helicity.
These factors will promote yet another severe weather threat Friday
early morning. The most likely threats will be large hail and
damaging wind, but an isolated tornado is certainly possible where
storms can become surface based, with the higher risk to the
south and east. Showers and non- severe thunderstorms will spread
through the remainder of the area by dawn. Areas of heavy rainfall
may develop, with a Flood Watch for portions of the area active
during this period.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 132 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

Widespread shower activity will be ongoing during the day Friday
with scattered thunderstorms at times. Storm activity will be most
widespread south of the boundary discussed in the short term, so
portions of southeast OK and west-central AR will see the greatest
coverage and heavier precipitation. By Friday afternoon and
evening storm coverage and intensity is expected to ramp up as
frontogenesis intensifies along the boundary. Additionally, better
forcing will arrive from the west as the main upper level trough
becomes negatively tilted. Severe storm potential will increase
for a few hours during the evening, as well as the flood
potential.

Heavy rainfall will be more or less continuous for areas under the
Flood Watch Friday afternoon through Saturday. This will occur with
excellent diffluence aloft leading to deep ascent. Meanwhile, near
record max precipitable water and integrated vapor transport (above
the 99th percentile relative to climatology) along with solid
instability will result in efficient precipitation processes. EPS
EFI values for precipitation for this period reach 0.9 for
portions of the area, which implies a very unusual event. Heavy
rain continues into Saturday, with moderate precipitation
spreading back north across the rest of the forecast area.
Additional rainfall of 1-3" for northeast OK, and 3-6" elsewhere
is still expected. A few localized areas may see up to 8" of
rainfall. Obviously this will result in both a river and flash
flood potential. Several rivers are expected to reach minor to
moderate flood stage. Those who are impacted by river flooding
should be paying careful attention to the forecast. By Saturday,
cooler air will be filtering in, with only a very marginal risk of
severe weather. Gusty northerly winds will reach speeds of 30-40
mph, so a Wind Advisory may eventually be needed.

Finally, the upper level low will will eject across the area
Saturday night into Sunday with a stout trowal developing within the
"wraparound" portion of the storm, This final band of heavy
precipitation will mostly track north of I-40, though some
uncertainty exists with respect to the exact placement and
intensity. Forecast soundings actually indicate a borderline snow
setup with melting snow diabatically cooling the column from near
700 hPa to the surface to near freezing. In theory, this could
result in a few hours of mixed or even all snow in a few locations.
In particular, high elevation locations would be more favorable to
pick up brief snow. Given the time of year and recent weather,
the surface is quite warm. This would make actual accumulation
very difficult, but its not out of the question a few spots could
see a brief dusting of snow to maybe a slushy inch on grassy or
elevated surfaces Sunday morning. Travel impacts are very unlikely.
With the cool airmass in place, a frost or freeze may occur for
many areas north of I-40 Sunday or especially Monday morning.

Temperatures will slowly moderate into the middle of next week with
no additional rainfall expected. High temperatures may reach the
upper 70s to near 80F by Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1219 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

The initial round of showers and storms will likely exit the region
over the next few hours. However, flying conditions will likely worsen
as we move into the nighttime hours with ceilings lowering. The round of
showers and storms is expected to impact area sites late tonight into
Friday morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   51  59  46  52 /  60  90  80 100
FSM   55  70  55  59 /  70 100 100 100
MLC   53  65  49  56 /  80 100  90 100
BVO   48  58  43  52 /  60  90  70  90
FYV   51  66  48  54 /  60 100  90 100
BYV   50  64  48  52 /  40 100 100 100
MKO   52  61  47  54 /  60  90  90 100
MIO   50  58  45  51 /  40  90  80 100
F10   51  59  47  53 /  70  90  90 100
HHW   57  69  53  60 /  80  90 100 100

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch from 1 AM CDT Friday through Sunday morning for
     OKZ049-053-063-068>076.

AR...Flood Watch from 1 AM CDT Friday through Sunday morning for
     ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...10