269
FXUS64 KTSA 092342
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
542 PM CST Sat Nov 9 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight-Sunday morning)
Issued at 1253 PM CST Sat Nov 9 2024

A vertically-stacked and occluded low pressure system was located
over southwest NE early this afternoon, with an occluded front
trailing to its east and then south down into the Ozarks and a
cold front extending south into the ArkLaTex. A warm front was
draped west to east from west-central AR into the Southeast. The
low will continue to lift slowly northeast while the occluded/cold
front advances slowly east/southeast over the next couple of
days. Surface dewpoints, still higher across WC/NW AR, will just
slowly drop tonight into Sunday, especially along the lower Ark
River Valley. As a result, as clouds clear out from west to east
into tonight, radiational cooling is likely to result in some fog
development over W AR, with some dense fog possible along the
lower Ark River Valley. Will let the evening and night shifts
evaluate the dense fog potential/coverage and issue a headline if
needed.

Lacy

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday afternoon through Saturday)
Issued at 1253 PM CST Sat Nov 9 2024

With lots of sunshine expected Monday and Tuesday and a drier
Pacific airmass in place, high temps are more likely to be warmer
than average for this time of year. Followed the lead of the
previous shift and went warmer than the blended guidance (NBM) and
more toward the 75th %ile of the probabilistic guidance envelope.
A progressive shortwave trough is expected to move across the
country this week, and is expected to affect the region Tuesday
night into Wednesday. There are still differences in timing and
track of this wave, showing up in last night`s multi-model
ensemble cluster data and in the 12Z operational runs of the GFS
and ECMWF. The EC is slower and tracks farther south than the GFS,
and is more bullish regarding QPF/rain chances. The NBM gave me
slight chance PoPs, and will leave this alone for now. If
solutions trend toward the EC though, PoPs will need to be
increased. With surface ridging expected to be wedged between us
and the Gulf Coast, moisture return ahead of the system will be
lacking and will thus leave thunder mention out of the forecast
for now. All in all, a generally warm and dry week is expected
next week in a low-amplitude regime over the CONUS.

A more active weather pattern may return by the early part of week
2, as a deep trough organizes over the western CONUS. Rain/storm
chances are likely to increase at some point. We`ll just have to
wait and see.

Lacy

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 542 PM CST Sat Nov 9 2024

VFR is anticipated to prevail at all TAF sites with the exception
of FSM where MVFR/IFR cigs currently continue to affect the
terminal. There could be a brief window of VFR conditions before
03z, but MVFR/IFR conditions are forecast to soon return by early-
mid evening. Latest model guidance indicates patchy dense fog
developing across the AR River Valley before midnight. The fog/low
cigs (IFR/LIFR) are expected to prevail at FSM through sunrise
Sunday before improvement in cigs/vsbys occur. Winds remain light
and turn westerly Sunday morning.

Mejia

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   46  69  43  70 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   49  73  47  73 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   46  74  43  74 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   41  67  37  69 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   44  71  38  72 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   47  69  42  69 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   44  70  43  70 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   43  67  41  69 /   0   0   0   0
F10   43  71  42  71 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   48  76  47  75 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...67