793
FXUS64 KTSA 180443
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1143 PM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1143 PM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

 - Very hot conditions through Wednesday followed by some slight cooling,
   but temperatures will remain above average into the weekend.

 - A few isolated showers may occur at times this week,
   particularly Wednesday to Thursday, but overall dry weather
   will continue.

 - Fire weather conditions remain a daily concern due to drying
   fuels and periods of gusty winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Tuesday)
Issued at 1143 PM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

In the near term, the main impact will be chances for shower and
storm development through the early morning hours across portions
of far eastern Oklahoma and more likely into west central
Arkansas. A weak low level jet axis will interact with a weak mid
level wave, likely leading to at least isolated development of
showers and storms in the Arkansas River Valley. A notable low
level moisture axis and boundary is also evident across this area,
likely left over from convective activity earlier on Monday. The
expectation is that any showers or storms would focus near this
boundary through the overnight period. Widespread rainfall appears
unlikely, but a few downpours and possible breezy winds could
accompany any more robust updrafts. Model soundings show at least
moderate elevated instability is still present across western
Arkansas, while shear remains relatively weak through the layer.
Nevertheless, a stronger storm or two is in the realm of
possibility as this activity shifts south and east through the
night. This activity should dissipate or move out of the area
around or shortly after daybreak as the LLJ relaxes and the wave
exits the local region.

Very hot and mostly dry conditions then return to the area on
Tuesday as upper ridging continues over the area. Highs will push
back above triple digits for most locations with some areas
possibly hitting 105 plus along and west of Highway 75 in eastern
Oklahoma. The zone of rainfall from Monday could help hold highs
back a degree or two as dewpoints stay more elevated. Either way,
the heat stress will be high again during the afternoon and thus a
Extreme Heat Warning continues for much of eastern Oklahoma into
west central Arkansas. Any rain chances will be very minimal
through the day, but a few isolated showers or storms during the
afternoon across far eastern Oklahoma or more likely in west
central Arkansas within the terrain regions. This activity would
remain very isolated and dissipate toward sunset with the loss of
daytime heating.

Bowlan

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 1143 PM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

Hot and dry conditions continue into Wednesday as a weak boundary
approaches the region from the northwest. This could help kick the
heat up a notch south of the boundary, where locations could see
their hottest day of the year as highs approach 105 to 110 during
the afternoon. Guidance trends continue to be slightly faster with
the frontal position into Wednesday afternoon, pushing to the I-44
corridor around early to mid afternoon. This would likely keep the
hottest temps south of Tulsa, though highs will still be in the
triple digits pretty much areawide. Scattered thunderstorm chances
will also increase by late Wednesday into Thursday across
northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas as a shortwave tracks
through the central states into the Mid Mississippi Valley. Most
places look to remain dry through the period though.

Ridging generally remains centered just to our west through the
weekend, while gradually drifting eastward. Therefore, hot, dry,
and occasionally breezy conditions will persist into early next
week. A couple more waves moving around the eastern periphery of
the ridge could generate a few isolated showers across northwest
Arkansas through the weekend, but chances are very low at this
point. Fire weather potential will continue to gradually increase
as fuels become increasingly stressed as most areas will see
little rain through the next week.

Bowlan

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 623 PM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   75 104  82 106 /   0   0   0  10
FSM   76 105  77 107 /  20   0   0   0
MLC   76 107  82 107 /  10   0   0   0
BVO   69 103  75 101 /   0   0   0  10
FYV   71 101  77 103 /  10   0   0   0
BYV   69  99  77 102 /   0   0   0  10
MKO   73 104  79 107 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   70  99  77 100 /   0   0   0   0
F10   73 105  80 108 /  10   0   0   0
HHW   75 104  80 105 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory from 1 PM Tuesday to 9 PM CDT Wednesday for OKZ058-
     063-068-069-172.

     Extreme Heat Warning from 1 PM Tuesday to 9 PM CDT Wednesday for
     OKZ049-053-055>057-059>062-064>067-070-071-073>075-154-176-
     254-272-276-354-376.

AR...Heat Advisory from 1 PM Tuesday to 9 PM CDT Wednesday for ARZ001-
     002-010-011-119-120.

     Extreme Heat Warning from 1 PM Tuesday to 9 PM CDT Wednesday for
     ARZ129-219-220-229.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...05