368
FXUS64 KTSA 182250
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
550 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1204 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025

 - Dangerous heat will persist through Tuesday in most areas, with
   heat headlines required for many locations each day. Isolated
   afternoon convection will be possible again today.

 - Shower and storm chances increase across mainly northeast Oklahoma
   and northwest Arkansas Tuesday, then spread south Tuesday
   night and Wednesday as a cold front moves across the area. This
   cold front will provide some relief from the heat for the
   middle to latter part of the week through next weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight)
Issued at 1204 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025

Hot and humid weather continues today with high pressure remaining
across the region. A Heat Advisory is in effect until 8 PM today for
most of the region, with afternoon heat indices of 105-110 F for
most areas. Some subtle lift will allow for some diurnal showers and
storms this afternoon (15-25% chance), mainly across southeast OK
and northwest AR. Impacts will be minor, with just some brief heavy
rain, lightning, and gusty winds near any storms.

It`ll be another mild night tonight, with lows in the 70s. A few
showers and storms (20% chance) may develop towards the KS border
near the end of the short term period from an approaching feature.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Monday)
Issued at 1204 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025

The large upper level high that has dominated the weather pattern
lately will strengthen, but will shift east as it does so, opening
the door to shortwave troughs impacting the area. The first will be
ongoing Tuesday morning. It is very weak, but there may be just
enough lift to kick off storms near daybreak. CAM guidance is
inconsistent, but there will at least be some potential for showers
and storms for the first part of the day. Even so, hot temperatures
are still expected. A Heat Advisory will be in effect Tuesday from
noon to 8 PM. Afternoon heat indices will again exceed 105 F for
much of the area. However, there is some potential for thicker
clouds to impede heating, and if this turns out to be the case,
the Heat Advisory could be cancelled early.

The next trough (and associated surface front) move through late
Tuesday into Wednesday, with a renewed chance of showers and storms.
Maintained PoPs of 20-40% across the area for this period. A few
storms could be marginally severe, but widespread impactful weather
is not expected. Any storms will be capable of locally heavy
rainfall and minor flash flood potential. Conditions will cool
Wednesday onwards, with highs dropped into the 80s or low 90s for
most locations (coolest in the north). Dry or mostly dry weather
will then persist into the weekend, with the best chance of a couple
of showers in southeast OK each afternoon.

Late next weekend into early next week a deep trough will plow into
the northeast USA with the upper level high retreating west. As this
trough will be associated with a strong surface high, cooler air
will move in from the north. The most likely outcome based on
ensemble guidance will be a several day period of northwest flow,
implying increasing rain chances and below normal temperatures.
Smaller subsets of guidance either keep the trough too far east and
we stay warm and humid or bring the trough closer so we are cooler
but dry. As of now, it`s difficult to say more than that.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 550 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025

The main concern for this TAF cycle is the potential for on-
station thunderstorm impacts during a couple of different periods.
Ongoing activity near FSM will continue to be covered by a VCTS
for the first hour of the TAF period, with inclusion of similar at
FYV/XNA/ROG a game-time decision. The existing activity should
diminish with sunset, with the next round developing toward
sunrise in NE OK. The existing PROB30 for BVO will be maintained,
with similar also introduced a couple of hours later for TUL/RVS.
This activity should diminish toward midday. More diurnal
thunderstorms can be expected for MLC and the W AR terminals early
to mid afternoon tomorrow, which will be covered by a PROB30
there. A more organized round of thunderstorms remains expected
mainly Tuesday evening, with a low chance of impacts at BVO an
hour or two before the end of the TAF period. Given the chance is
low, the BVO impacts will not be included in this set of TAFs but
will likely be introduced in the 06Z set. Outside of the
convective concerns, VFR conditions should prevail, along with
light winds, although a northerly wind shift can be expected at
the NE OK sites late in the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   78  98  74  90 /  10  20  30  20
FSM   77 101  76  93 /   0  20  30  40
MLC   74 100  74  92 /   0  20  20  30
BVO   73  97  70  89 /  20  20  30  20
FYV   72  97  69  88 /  10  30  40  40
BYV   74  97  70  87 /  10  30  40  40
MKO   75  98  74  91 /   0  20  30  30
MIO   74  98  72  89 /  10  20  30  20
F10   74  98  72  90 /   0  20  20  30
HHW   75 100  74  94 /   0  20  10  30

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ049-053>068-
     070>076.

     Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for OKZ049-053>068-
     070>076.

AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ001-002-019-020-
     029.

     Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for ARZ019-020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...22