008
FXUS64 KTSA 121536
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1036 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 359 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025

  - Slight risk for severe thunderstorms in southeast Oklahoma
    and western Arkansas late this afternoon and evening.

  - Impactful weather day on Friday with critical or near-
    critical fire weather conditions, strong winds, and some
    potential for strong and/or severe thunderstorms for far
    eastern parts of the forecast area.

  - Well above average temperatures through Friday; slightly
    cooler this weekend behind a weak and dry cold front.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1035 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025

Overall, only minor changes were made with the morning update.
Sfc low pressure persists this morning in NW OK, keeping pressure
gradients fairly tight across our area. Did opt to increase winds
and gusts this afternoon to better match short term guidance
associated with this feature. High temperatures are still likely to
end up in the upper 70s/ lower 80s areawide, despite increasing
cloud cover this afternoon. Dewpoints will be increasing across SE
OK and W-Central this afternoon and evening as an upper level wave
approaches the FA. By late afternoon or early evening, isolated to
scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop in SE OK, expanding
east and northeast into W-Central/NW AR zones later this evening.
Storms may become strong to severe with primarily large hail and
damaging wind threats. Fire weather concerns should be more limited
today given lower wind speeds and increasing moisture in SE OK...
though pockets of elevated fire weather conditions may still develop
this afternoon, especially across E-Central OK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 359 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025

Cloudiness will be on the increase this afternoon as an upper
level storm system approaches from the west. By late afternoon,
isolated showers and thunderstorms may develop across far
southeast Oklahoma, and any storm that develops may become strong
or severe. Afternoon high temperatures will range from the upper
70s to lower 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 359 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025

Showers and thunderstorms may expand in coverage early this
evening from far southeast Oklahoma into northwest Arkansas, with
a continued potential for a few severe storms. All precipitation
will end by around midnight as the upper level system moves off to
the east.

Unseasonably warm temperatures will continue Thursday into Friday
as a potent storm system begins to move out of the Rockies into
the southern plains on Friday. A few thunderstorms may develop
Friday afternoon across far eastern Oklahoma and northwest
Arkansas, and a severe storm or two will be possible, but the main
severe weather threat will be to the east of our forecast area.

Of much greater concern is the fire weather danger Friday. A
dryline will sweep east across the area late Friday morning and
afternoon, with very strong and gusty south to southwest winds in
its wake. Wind gusts Friday afternoon may exceed 50 miles an hour
in some places, and with afternoon humidity values falling below
20 percent, critical to near critical fire spread rates will
develop. The gusty winds will continue into Friday night before
diminishing.

Cooler temperatures are expected over the weekend behind this
system, but readings will still be slightly above normal for the
most part. Gusty south winds look to return early next week, along
with unseasonably warm temperatures, which will once again
significantly raise fire weather concerns.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 630 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025

VFR conditions with periods of gusty winds today. Thunderstorms
expected to develop across SE OK and spread north and eastward
through the evening with potential impacts at terminals along this
corridor. Once storms pass then VFR condition will return.
Uncertainty increases on late night fog potential. Will introduce
MVFR conditions for west central AR and let later forecasts
monitor trends for other locations.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   81  49  80  59 /   0  10   0   0
FSM   83  53  81  53 /  10  30   0   0
MLC   83  47  81  57 /  20  20   0   0
BVO   80  44  79  53 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   81  48  80  54 /  10  20   0   0
BYV   80  51  79  56 /   0  20   0   0
MKO   83  49  79  56 /  10  20   0   0
MIO   79  49  79  57 /   0  10   0   0
F10   83  47  80  57 /  10  10   0   0
HHW   80  48  79  56 /  30  20   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...07