095
FXUS64 KTSA 241710
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1210 PM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1207 PM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026

 - Near to slightly below normal temperatures continue through
   Friday for most locations.

 - Periods of low rain chances, mainly across northeast Oklahoma,
   continue through Saturday morning.

 - Another stretch of dangerous heat likely this weekend into
   next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Friday)
Issued at 1145 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

A complex of showers and storms currently moving through south-
central Kansas and north-central Oklahoma will likely continue to
decay is it moves into a zone of mid level dry air and low
instability over northeast Oklahoma. Still, the outflow boundary
could generate some light to moderate showers across far northeast
Oklahoma through the early morning hours and toward daybreak.
Coverage is expected to be minimal if any through the pre dawn
hours and any rain amounts will be light.

As we move into the day Friday, a mid level shortwave will drop
southeastward across eastern Kansas and into the Ozarks by mid
afternoon. Increasing deep layer moisture is forecast to return to
the area with a return to southerly flow. This will allow modest
instability to develop across the region by midday and
redevelopment of scattered showers and storms is expected near the
trough axis across northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas
through the afternoon. An increase in mid level flow associated
with the wave could potentially lead to a stronger storm or two,
with gusty winds the main threat, but widespread severe weather is
not likely. Widespread mid level cloud cover is also expected
across most of the region through the day associated with the
increasing deep layer moisture. Thus, temperatures will stay in
check mostly in the upper 80s and lower 90s again tomorrow
afternoon. Heat index values will creep back over 100 however, as
the humidity increases. Any places that see a little more breaks
in the clouds and sunshine could approach heat advisory criteria,
but confidence in those locations is low at this time so have
opted to let later shifts assess the obs to see if one is
warranted Friday afternoon.

Bowlan

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 1145 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

The shortwave trough axis remains over the region through Friday
night and into Saturday with some lingering spotty showers or
storms possible through the morning hours. By Saturday afternoon,
the shortwave will be exiting the area, with the upper ridge
building across much of the central CONUS. Heat and humidity will
be the story through the rest of the weekend and into at least
the middle part of next week. Triple digit temperatures along with higher
humidity will lead to heat headlines for several days. Higher
dewpoints Saturday and Sunday could lead to some extreme heat
warning criteria on those days as heat indices around 115 degrees
will be possible. Some drier air will filter in by early next week
bringing heat index values down somewhat, but still over advisory
levels for most locations through the week. Guidance is in pretty
good agreement that the ridge will shift west some by late week
with a possible frontal passage bringing temperatures back to
near normal and allowing low rain chances to enter back into the
forecast.

Bowlan

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1207 PM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026

Showers associated with an upper level disturbance continue to
struggle moving east into northeast OK. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms will remain possible through the
afternoon across NE OK and into NW AR into early evening, though
coverage remains in question. Some lingering MVFR ceilings remain
possible neat KTUL and with any more persistent showers, but aside
from that VFR conditions will remain prevalent through the
forecast period, with decreasing cloud cover from west to east
tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   90  79  99  80 /  30  10  10   0
FSM   91  78  98  79 /  10  20  10  10
MLC   91  79  98  79 /  10  10   0   0
BVO   88  75  98  77 /  40  10  10   0
FYV   87  75  94  76 /  20  30  10  10
BYV   87  74  94  76 /  20  30  20  10
MKO   90  78  97  77 /  20  10  10   0
MIO   88  75  96  77 /  30  20  10   0
F10   90  77  97  77 /  30  10  10   0
HHW   92  78  96  76 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Saturday for OKZ049-053-063-
     068-069-073>075-172-176-272-276-376.

     Extreme Heat Warning from noon to 8 PM CDT Saturday for
     OKZ055>062-064>067-070-071-154-254-354.

AR...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Saturday for ARZ001-002-129-
     219-220-229.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...14