585
FXUS64 KTSA 301710
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1210 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1202 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025

 - Dangerous heat and humidity will continue today, with afternoon
   heat index values between 105 and 110+ degrees.

 - Cooler conditions and low shower and thunderstorm chances late
   Thursday into early next week.

 - Temperatures warming back closer to average by the middle of next

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 1202 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025

Very hot conditions persist for the entire forecast area this
afternoon with maximum heat indices between 105 to 110 degrees,
locally higher. Dewpoints are so far running near or slightly
below this time yesterday, while temps are running slightly
warmer. Heat indices in the AR River Valley specifically are
forecast to approach or exceed warning criteria. Since Heat Risk
values indicate this is a climatologically significant event,
opted to upgrade this area to an Extreme Heat Warning. A Heat
Advisory remains in effect elsewhere until 8 PM this evening.
Additional local upgrades to Extreme Heat Warnings could be
required early this afternoon depending on observational trends,
but generally expect maximum heat indices will be similar to
yesterday... just under warning criteria. Also similar to
yesterday, there is a chance for isolated showers and
thunderstorms this afternoon primarily across the higher terrain
of NW AR and perhaps into E OK. Mostly clear to partly cloudy
skies are likely elsewhere.

Going into this evening and tonight, sky coverage and low shower/
storm chances will begin to increase across northern portions of
the CWA as a cold front pushes towards the area. While severe
weather is not expected with this activity, gusty winds and
locally heavy rainfall may occur along the front with any stronger
storms. Otherwise, generally quiet conditions are forecast
overnight with lows in the 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Wednesday)
Issued at 1202 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025

The aforementioned cold front will continue to progress into the
FA Thursday, likely bringing relief from the heat at least to
locations north of I-40. It is less clear how hot SE OK and
W-Central AR will be and if another round of advisories will be
required. Would expect there to be some moisture pooling along the
boundary which could locally enhance heat indices, and locations
south of the front are still likely to exceed 105 degree heat
indices. Currently it appears the front will sag into SE OK,
potentially near the Red River. However, given the importance of
frontal positioning to advisory issuance, will hold off this
afternoon and allow the evening shift to take another look at it.
With the boundary in the vicinity, isolated to scattered afternoon
showers and storms will be possible for much of the area
tomorrow, with HREF providing the highest chances across SE OK and
NW AR.

As the upper ridge shifts west, flow aloft becomes northwesterly
Thursday through much of the extended period. This will invite
higher rain and thunderstorm chances tomorrow night through early
next week, with potential for MCS activity. NBM PoPs appear
reasonable at this time, providing a periodic 20-50% chance of
rain and storms through Monday. By the middle of next week,
guidance suggest the ridge will attempt to build back over the
region again. This would likely result in a return of drier
weather and higher temperatures/ heat index values if it verifies.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1155 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025

Isolated showers and thunderstorms will pop up this afternoon,
especially over the higher terrain. Most areas will not see
measurable precipitation, but gusty outflow winds could impact a
few terminals, especially for northwest Arkansas. Winds will
otherwise be light and variable, but favoring the west to
southwest.

A cold front will move into the area tonight, passing through KBVO
by 04Z, and KFSM by 09Z. Winds will shift to northerly, becoming
gusty for a time. A few gusts may exceed 20 kts. Ceilings will
develop, though mostly above MVFR criteria. A brief period of
ceilings down to 2-3 kft may occur Thursday morning for KBVO.
Additionally, showers and storms will form along the front
tonight. They will be weakening as the move south, but could
impact terminals in northeast OK with gusty winds, brief heavy
rain, and lightning. Most areas will dry out by daybreak Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   76  89  73  84 /  10  20  30  20
FSM   78  97  74  87 /  10  20  30  40
MLC   75  96  72  86 /   0  20  20  40
BVO   72  86  68  84 /  20  30  20  20
FYV   72  90  68  84 /  10  30  30  40
BYV   72  88  67  83 /  20  40  30  30
MKO   75  93  71  83 /   0  20  30  40
MIO   73  85  69  84 /  30  40  20  20
F10   74  92  71  82 /   0  20  20  30
HHW   76  98  74  90 /   0  20  20  30

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ049-053>076.

AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ001-002-010-011.

     Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ019-020-
     029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...43
LONG TERM....43
AVIATION...06