610
FXUS64 KTSA 050527
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1227 AM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1223 AM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025

  - Mostly dry weather with above normal temperatures into Monday.

  - Limited grassland fire weather danger west of Highway 75 and south
    of U.S. Highway 412 this afternoon.

  - Low shower and thunderstorm chances exist late Monday and
    Tuesday, along with slightly cooler temperatures Tuesday and
    Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 1223 AM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025

Another mostly sunny, breezy, and unseasonably warm day is expected
today, with afternoon high temperatures in the 80s to near 90
degrees. The warm and breezy conditions, combined with the lack of
recent rainfall, will lead to a limited grassland fire weather
danger this afternoon mainly west of Highway 75 and south of Highway
412.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 1223 AM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025

Increasing moisture Monday may lead to low shower and thunderstorm
chances by Monday afternoon across far eastern Oklahoma and
northwest Arkansas. Otherwise, another day of unseasonably warm
weather will occur, with lighter winds than today.

A weak cold front will move south across the area late Monday night
and Tuesday, with low shower and thunderstorm chances associated
with its passage. However, most places will remain dry. Temperatures
will cool slightly following the frontal passage, but will still be
near or slightly warmer than normal.

An upper ridge will build back over the area by late week into next
weekend, with temperatures once again climbing to unseasonably warm
levels.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1223 AM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025

VFR conditions will persist through the period. Skies will remain
mostly clear. Winds will be light overnight, with some marginal
low level wind shear in northeast Oklahoma late, but too weak to
include in the TAFs. Breezy southerly winds will redevelop during
the day Sunday. No rain will occur.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   88  65  88  65 /   0   0  10  10
FSM   88  67  85  68 /   0   0  20  10
MLC   88  64  87  64 /   0   0  10  10
BVO   88  60  88  60 /   0   0  10  20
FYV   84  61  84  61 /   0   0  30  10
BYV   83  62  82  63 /   0  10  30  20
MKO   87  65  87  66 /   0   0  10  10
MIO   85  63  86  62 /   0   0  10  10
F10   87  63  87  64 /   0   0  10  10
HHW   85  65  85  66 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...06