175
FXUS64 KTSA 261838
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
138 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 140 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

   - Low thunderstorm chances expand into portions of E OK late
     this afternoon and evening, with low precip chances
     persisting overnight. A storm or two may produce strong to
     marginally severe wind gusts today.

   - Hot and humid conditions will continue into the weekend with
     heat indices of 95-105 F across the area.

   - Daily isolated to scattered showers and storms likely much of
     this week. Storm coverage increases Friday and again late
     this weekend into early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight)
Issued at 140 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

Plume of deeper moisture has expanded across E OK and is
downstream of the subtle weak wave extended through NW OK. These
elements combined with ample heating will support isolated to
scattered storms later this afternoon through early evening with
the higher chances northwest of Interstate 44. Locally strong
downburst winds will be possible with any stronger storms. The
convection may wane this evening but bulk of guidance maintains
a signal for continued precip chances through the overnight hours
into early Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 140 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

Weak sfc boundary slides into the forecast area tomorrow while
remnant troughing remains aloft as the upper ridge has weakened.
A broader expanse of deep moisture will also be present and
expectation is shower and storms will be ongoing early Friday
steadily expand in coverage through the afternoon with a drift to
the east and south. Any stronger storm will be capable of locally
gusty winds. Heavy downpours should be expected with the slow
storm motions.

Storm chances continue on Saturday but overall lesser coverage is
expected. Another glancing influence from a passing wave aloft is
likely to increase shower and storm coverage Sunday into Monday.
Overall temps and afternoon heat index values expected to remain
near seasonal normals. Outdoor activities should be mindful of
lightning safety through the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1213 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

VFR conditions are likely to persist through the forecast period
for all sites, outside of direct influence from thunderstorms.
Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop across N-Central
OK this afternoon and move east, potentially impacting BVO/TUL/RVS
between 00-05z. Storms may produce gusty outflow winds and heavy
rainfall, but should be weakening as they approach NE OK TAF
sites. A low probability for showers and isolated thunderstorms
continues across E OK overnight and into the morning hours, with
minimal impacts expected during this period. Additional
thunderstorm chances are forecast late in the forecast period/
tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   74  91  74  91 /  20  40  10  20
FSM   74  92  73  94 /  10  40  10  20
MLC   73  91  74  93 /  10  40  10  20
BVO   72  90  71  91 /  30  40  20  20
FYV   72  88  72  89 /  10  40  10  30
BYV   72  88  71  89 /  10  40  10  40
MKO   73  89  73  91 /  10  40  10  20
MIO   72  87  72  89 /  20  40  20  30
F10   73  89  72  91 /  20  40  10  20
HHW   72  90  73  91 /  10  20  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...43