848
FXUS64 KTSA 101803
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
103 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1259 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

 - Increasing showers and thunderstorm today and tonight associated
   with a passing cold front.

 - Brief cool down in wake of the front but unseasonably hot
   temperatures return over the weekend through next week.

 - Thunderstorm chances return Saturday however confidence is low
   in exact placement and coverage.

 - While locally heavy rainfall is possible through Friday night,
   the ongoing drought conditions will require much more rainfall
   for improvement. Fire weather concerns will continue during
   periods of stronger winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 1259 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

Combined outflow / cold frontal boundary will continue a steady
southeastward progress and clear the forecast area by mid evening.
Storms will continue to develop along and north of the boundary
with a few strong to severe storms likely through early evening
with localized strong winds the primary hazard. A brief lull in
convective coverage is possible this evening, however persistent
mid level troughing and increasingly favorable upper jet dynamics
will likely foster another period of more widespread convection
from late evening through the early morning hours. Placement and
evolution of this convection is more uncertain, but western AR and
possibly far SE OK will be within the more favored corridor.
Plentiful deep layer moisture and generally slower storm motions
will allow for locally heavy rainfall potential. While ongoing drought
conditions will welcome the rainfall, there may be brief periods
of heavier runoff on hardened and shallower soils.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Thursday)
Issued at 1259 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

Showers and storms may be ongoing into the day Friday before
dissipating or spreading east of the local forecast area.
Otherwise, dry and somewhat cooler weather is expected Friday with
the return of unseasonably hot weather beginning Saturday. Various
guidance members suggest MCS development across KS either Saturday
or early Sunday and these complex spreading southeast toward the
region with a weakening trend into the building upper ridge.
Confidence is low in this scenario as the spread in timing and
location remains high, however the overall pattern does support
this potential so expect notable adjustments in forecast rain
chances once a scenario gains agreement. Temps on Saturday will be
largely dependent on the coverage and duration of any showers and
storms, but the trend will remain for hotter weather building
through the weekend into the middle of next week. Heat advisories
appear likely at some point during this period. The next potential
cold front and increasing rain chances arrives toward the middle
to latter part of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

A more complex TAF forecast today for the first time in what seems
like months. An aggressive outflow boundary is working its way
south across the region today, forcing showers and storms both
along and behind it. In the near term, used a combo of prevailing,
tempo and prob30s to address storm impacts. Another round of
convection is expected this evening and overnight from SE OK into
NW AR and will address this potential with prevailing and prob30
groups. Finally, clouds are expected to clear across NE OK tonight
and guidance suggests the best chance for IFR or blo fog
development at KBVO. Farther south at KTUL/KRVS, guidance is
leaning more toward MVFR low cloud than fog. For KMLC and the NW
AR sites, all guidance suggests MVFR or even IFR low clouds can be
expected toward daybreak Friday.

Lacy

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   68  91  71  94 /  20  10  30  40
FSM   73  92  72  98 /  70  60  20  20
MLC   70  93  72  99 /  60  50  10  20
BVO   62  90  65  93 /  20  10  30  50
FYV   65  89  65  95 /  70  50  20  20
BYV   68  87  68  93 /  70  50  20  20
MKO   67  90  68  95 /  40  30  20  30
MIO   66  89  68  92 /  20  10  20  30
F10   67  92  69  97 /  30  30  20  30
HHW   72  92  72  97 /  50  50  10  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...30