999
FXUS64 KTSA 111126
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
626 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1234 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

 - The weather turns more unsettled through Tuesday with periods of
   higher thunderstorm coverage. Locally heavy rains are likely along
   with a few severe storms.

 - Relatively cooler temperatures are forecast to start the work
   week. The multi-day stretch of heat headlines will come to an end.

 - Temperatures will rise back to near average for this time of year
   during the latter part of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 1234 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025

The start of a more unsettled weather period begins overnight and
lingers into Tuesday as an upper trough moves over the central
Plains and a boundary lingers over or near the region.

Storms erupted on an outflow boundary near the KS border during the
afternoon and have lingered into the evening as the LLJ forces new
storms north of the outflow. Recent radar trends suggest slow-moving
storms into Osage county, with more storms upstream, have raised
flash flood potential high enough to warrant issuance of a Flood
Watch for Osage county. Two separate areas of storms are
organizing over western KS attm, with the CAMs suggesting that the
southern batch will eventually merge with the convection
downstream and advance east near the KS border into Monday
morning, with a marginal damaging wind threat. The MCS is still
expected to lose steam at some point as it progresses east across
the forecast area. Additional storm development is anticipated on
Monday afternoon along a consolidated outflow from previous storms
across NE OK into NW AR. The most likely scenarios in the
ensemble cluster data and the newer CAM runs suggest an uptick in
rain/storm chances Monday night over our northern and western
areas, likely to the north of the residual outflow boundary draped
across the region. Pockets of locally heavy rainfall and spotty
damaging wind are the main threats. WPC has highlighted NE OK in a
Slight flash flood risk for Monday and Monday night. In addition
to the higher rain chances, the low level thermal ridge collapses
and retracts back to the west, allowing for relatively cooler
temps and an end to the heat headlines.

Lacy

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 1234 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025

The latest CAMs suggest that a slow-moving MCV may evolve from
convection out west Monday night and track across the region on
Tuesday, embedded within a broader upper trough axis remaining over
the region. This will maintain higher rain/storm chances. Pockets of
locally heavy rainfall and wet microbursts will be the main threats.
The upper trough axis still lingers over the region Wednesday,
supporting continued rain/storm chances. By Thursday, the trough
axis will have shifted east and mid-level heights will be on the
rise, with the transition to more hot and dry weather underway.

By late in the week, upper troughing will be prevalent along the
West Coast, while ridging develops over the Southeast/Gulf Coast
region. High temps will climb again, but should be closer to average
for this time of year and not quite as hot as they were this past
weekend. Nevertheless, average highs this time of year are near the
warmest they get during the year, so it will still be hot. Some
mainly afternoon low storm chances will persist in the terrain of W
AR and far SE OK as well. By next weekend, the more likely scenarios
in ensemble cluster data suggest that the mid-level ridge center
will migrate west closer to or over our region. Predominantly hot
and dry weather should continue.

Lacy

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 626 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025

VFR conditions are expected outside of any thunderstorm impacts
through the period. A decaying cluster of storms currently moving
through far NE OK will likely only impact KBVO over the next
couple of hours with some lightning and brief reductions in VSBY.
Other NE OK terminals could see some spotty showers through mid
morning, along with a shift to gusty northwesterly winds behind an
outflow boundary for a few hours. This activity will clear out for
the afternoon, but additional storm development looks possible
this afternoon into the evening hours...especially across NE OK
again along the lingering outflow/frontal boundary. A couple
rounds of storms will be possible again from this evening through
the end of the TAF period. Otherwise, Scattered mid cloud clouds
will prevail along with southerly winds around 10 knots across the
area.

Bowlan

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   93  73  91  74 /  30  40  40  20
FSM   97  74  96  74 /  10  10  30  10
MLC   95  73  93  71 /  20  20  30  10
BVO   91  69  88  69 /  50  60  40  20
FYV   92  70  91  69 /  30  20  40  20
BYV   94  70  93  69 /  30  20  40  20
MKO   95  72  93  72 /  30  20  40  20
MIO   93  71  91  70 /  50  40  50  20
F10   94  70  92  71 /  30  30  40  20
HHW   92  72  93  73 /   0  10  20  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for OKZ054.

AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...04