124
FXUS64 KTSA 120551
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1251 AM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1109 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

 - Shower and thunderstorm chances will continue the next several days.
   While any thunderstorm will produce heavy rains, Saturday night is
   expected to have the greatest potential for excessive rainfall over a
   larger area.

-  After the several rounds of rain and storms, the flood threat near
   creeks and streams will increase Saturday into Sunday.

-  Rain and thunderstorm coverage will decrease on Sunday, but the chance
   of rainfall will continue, especially in southeast Oklahoma.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Friday)
Issued at 1109 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Cluster of thunderstorms continues ahead of a weak frontal
boundary moving across northeast OK. Environment continues to
support a low-end threat of downburst winds tonight, and most
data suggests a potential uptick in coverage of storms later
tonight favored along and south of I-40 . Flooding potential also
will exist with PWAT values 1.5-1.8 inches analyzed through the
local area.

Rain and storm coverage is expected to wane through the early part
of Friday as the front basically washes out. Temperatures should
be slightly cooler but it will remain humid.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 1109 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Complex of storms potentially makes a run at northeast OK and
northwest AR late Friday night, but the Saturday night into Sunday
time frame continues to be indicated as the period with highest
potential for more widespread heavy rainfall. During this time a
more significant cold front is forecast to push through the
Central Plains toward the local area, with widespread showers and
thunderstorms developing across southern KS into northern OK,
with both a threat of severe weather and excessive rainfall.
Latest suite of guidance continues to point toward northeast OK
as the more favored area for heavy rain, locally several inches
possible. A flood watch may ultimately be needed as this region
has seen recent heavy rainfall with some ongoing river flooding as
well. After a hot an humid day Saturday, temperatures will be
notably cooler to start next week.

Overall rain and storm chances will decrease during the early part
of next week with a period of below normal temperatures before
more typical early summer conditions return. Storm chances may
increase again later next week as well.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1251 AM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

A complex of storms, currently situated across far E. OK and far
NW AR, have developed along a frontal boundary and will continue
to push ESE over the next few hours. KFYV, KFSM, and eventually
KMLC will be impacted by this complex. Heavy rainfall, cloud to
ground lightning, and gusty winds will be the main hazards with
these storms over the next handful of hours. MVFR cigs and
IFR/LIFR vis will prevail underneath heavier rain showers and
storms. Kept TEMPO groups at KXNA and KROG through 07Z for
occasional lightning strikes and rain on the backside of the
passing storm complex. Most of the rain/storms will be exiting the
area around daybreak this morning, with lingering SCT-BKN lower
clouds through the morning, especially across SE OK and W-C AR.
These lower clouds should gradually scatter out and lift late in
the morning and through the afternoon Friday. The frontal boundary
will stall and retreat back northward this afternoon and
southeast winds will return, but remaining light through the
daytime.

Mejia

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   75  92  69  76 /  10  30 100  30
FSM   75  92  74  83 /  10  20  90  60
MLC   76  91  74  81 /  10   0  90  60
BVO   72  92  66  75 /  30  60 100  20
FYV   72  88  69  78 /  20  40  90  40
BYV   69  87  67  76 /  30  60 100  40
MKO   73  89  70  77 /  10  10 100  50
MIO   70  89  66  75 /  40  60 100  10
F10   73  90  69  77 /  10  10  90  50
HHW   75  91  75  84 /  10  10  60  70

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...67