638
FXUS64 KTSA 222321
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
621 PM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 617 PM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

 - A weak cold front will bring some heat relief through Thursday,
   but the heat will return Friday.

 - Low rain chances develop by the end of the week.

 - Another stretch of dangerous heat likely next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 1057 AM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

A notably drier and "cooler" airmass continues to gradually spread
southwestward across the local area this morning, and will result
in a much more tolerable afternoon today. Dew points in a few low
elevation sites near the Red River remain stubborn to mix out and
a few mesonet sites have already reached 105 HI, but indications
are that the airmass change will eventually win out this afternoon
and those locations would only briefly meet advisory levels. No
heat headlines are planned for today as a result. Clear skies and
light winds will allow lows to fall into the upper 60s and low 70s
for most of the area.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Wednesday)
Issued at 1057 AM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

The reprieve from heat will continue Thursday with dry conditions
for the most part. However a few elevated showers or
thunderstorms moving across Kansas associated with a weak
disturbance may briefly build into areas near the border Thursday
morning. By Friday and Saturday, hotter and more humid conditions
begin to return courtesy of increasing south winds, but some
uncertainty remains as a more significant shortwave is expected
to top the upper ridge with higher confidence in a few showers and
thunderstorms developing across northeast OK and northwest AR
Friday into Friday night. As such, cloud cover may temper the
warm-up to some degree. At this point confidence in need for heat
headlines remains greater across western areas Saturday.

The heat looks to return in full force Sunday through at least
early next week, with triple-digit high temps becoming more
likely and heat headlines needed.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 617 PM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

A broken mid-level deck is forecast across the northeast OK sites
as convection moves across eastern KS late tonight into Thursday
morning. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected through the TAF
cycle with light easterly winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   73  93  77  95 /   0   0   0  10
FSM   74  93  75  95 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   73  94  76  95 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   69  91  74  94 /   0  10  10  10
FYV   68  91  71  91 /   0   0   0  10
BYV   67  87  68  90 /   0   0   0  20
MKO   72  92  74  93 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   69  91  73  92 /   0  20   0  10
F10   71  91  74  93 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   74  93  75  92 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...24