597
FXUS64 KTSA 212010
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
210 PM CST Fri Feb 21 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 210 PM CST Fri Feb 21 2025

  - Significant warming trend this weekend; above normal
    temperatures next week.

  - Weak cold front on Wednesday will bring a slight chance
    (10-20%) of rain for far northeast OK and far northwest AR

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight)
Issued at 210 PM CST Fri Feb 21 2025

Copacetic, albeit unseasonably cold, weather conditions will
persist through tonight as surface high pressure continues to
shift east of the area. The eastward shift of high pressure will
maintain light southerly winds, bringing in warmer temperatures.
As such, current temperatures are running about 10-20 degrees
warmer than 24 hours ago. Despite the warmer temperatures
compared to previous days, the prevalent mid/high level cloud
cover this afternoon is forecast to thin-out this evening, enough
to allow temperatures to fall into the teens and lower 20s
overnight tonight. The light winds should really limit any extreme
wind chills tonight and therefore no cold weather headlines are
expected.

Mejia

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Friday)
Issued at 210 PM CST Fri Feb 21 2025

The main topic in the long-term will be the substantial warming
trend through the weekend and into the early part of next week.
After an abnormally chilly start on Saturday morning, there is
high confidence that temperatures will climb above freezing for
all locations by or just after midday tomorrow. Afternoon high
temperatures are forecast to reach the mid-upper 40s just about
everywhere. A weak upper-level low/trough will move across
central/northern TX late Saturday night into Sunday. Most of the
moisture associated with this trough will be confined south of the
Red River and no impacts are expected from it. Temperatures are
anticipated to warm up to near or just above seasonal average on
Sunday as shortwave ridging moves overhead. Even warmer
temperatures will occur Monday and Tuesday as upper-level ridging
strengthens over the forecast area. Still dont think models are
capturing the true potential of the increasing temperatures this
weekend and especially for Monday and Tuesday, with many models
maintaining a cool bias, possibly due to this past winter storm
event. For high temperatures on days 3-7, decided to blend in the
NBM 75th and 90th percentiles with the previous forecast, which
keep temperatures a couple to few degrees warmer than model
guidance. If this forecast verifies, Monday and Tuesday will both
feature widespread high temperatures in the upper 60s and lower
70s.

A weak cold front is still on track to sweep through the region
during the daytime on Wednesday. Despite the front, unseasonably
warm temperatures are expected to persist behind it, though it
will drop both high and low temperatures a few degrees from
Wednesday night-Thursday night. Temperatures are then expected to
trend back into the upper 60s and lower 70s by Friday afternoon.
A few showers may accompany the front Wednesday, specifically in
far northeast OK and far northwest AR, but otherwise the forecast
looks dry through the forecast period.

Mejia

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1120 AM CST Fri Feb 21 2025

Broken to overcast mid level clouds between 4-7kft will spread
over the CWA this afternoon and remain common into the overnight
hours as a mid level shortwave moves through the region. Late
tonight into early Saturday morning, cloud cover is forecast to
scatter out with mostly clear skies toward the end of the TAF
period. Winds through the period start out light/variable and
become more southerly for Saturday with surface high pressure
exiting the region. VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF
period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   14  45  25  58 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   19  47  25  59 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   17  49  26  60 /   0   0   0   0
BVO    9  44  21  59 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   14  44  25  59 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   14  43  26  57 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   14  45  25  58 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   10  40  23  55 /   0   0   0   0
F10   15  48  25  60 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   21  47  27  59 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...20