501
FXUS64 KTSA 091605
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1105 AM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1105 AM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025

  - Unseasonably warm temperatures return late this week through the
    weekend.

  - Increasing southerly winds and the warm conditions will aid in
    limited fire weather concerns for the weekend, especially Sunday
    afternoon.

  - Low rain chances return early next week, mainly for areas along
    and north of I-44.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight)
Issued at 1105 AM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025

Mostly clear skies and mild temperatures continue this afternoon and
into this evening as light southerly flow returns to the region.
High temperatures this afternoon will be near to slightly warmer
than yesterday, generally ranging form the high 70s to mid 80s.
Overnight lows in the 50s to near 60 will also again be common
across the area overnight tonight, with dry conditions persisting.

Bowlan

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Thursday)
Issued at 1105 AM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025

Mid level ridging expands over the Southern Plains on Friday,
lasting through the weekend, leading to increasing temperatures back
into the upper 80s to near 90 Friday through Sunday. A weak, fast
moving area of vorticity will track southeastward into northern
Arkansas by Friday afternoon and few showers could develop across
portions of northwest Arkansas tomorrow afternoon in close proximity
to this feature. Any amounts will be light, but have introduced some
low end PoPs for this timeframe. Additionally, southerly winds will
begin to increase on Saturday and especially Sunday as a surface low
develops and tracks into the Central Plains. Wind generally ranging
from 10-20 mph with frequent gusts around 30mph will develop Sunday
afternoon. Gusty winds combined with well above normal temperatures
near 90 degrees and min RH values from 25-35 percent will cause at
least limited fire weather concerns Sunday afternoon across portions
of northeast Oklahoma.

More amplified longwave troughing develops across the western CONUS
during the latter half of the weekend and into early next week which
will suppress the ridge somewhat to the south for a couple of days. A
shortwave tracking across the Central and Northern Plains Sunday
into Monday is progged to help push a frontal boundary into the area
by Monday morning. Tropical moisture will be absorbed into the
predominately southwest flow aloft from a couple of tropical systems
currently in the eastern Pacific. This plume of moisture is expected
to remain mostly west and northwest of the local region but the
fringes of this deeper moisture could interact with the
aforementioned boundary and lead to scattered showers and a few
thunderstorms during the day Monday. Guidance is still in
disagreement on how far south the boundary makes its and thus where
the better rain chances set up. Will maintain the more northern
scenario and generally keep highest PoPs along and northwest of I-
44. Scattered showers could linger into Tuesday, before the ridge
begins to make a comeback into the region through mid week. A return
to hot and dry conditions looks to finish out the forecast period.

Bowlan

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 551 AM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025

Pockets of MVFR cigs have developed this morning mostly near and
north of the KS border, with development much more patchy to the
south. Inserted TEMPO MVFR cigs at KBVO thru 16Z closer to larger
area of low cloud, with just a scattered mention at KTUL and
KRVS. A sct to bkn deck of 5kft cloud is exptd across NE OK later
in the day. Some sct mid cloud can be expected over in NW AR,
mainly this morning.

Lacy

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   60  86  64  87 /   0  10   0   0
FSM   57  83  61  85 /   0  10   0   0
MLC   56  85  59  87 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   56  86  59  87 /   0  10   0   0
FYV   52  80  58  82 /   0  10   0   0
BYV   53  79  60  82 /   0  20   0   0
MKO   58  83  61  86 /   0  10   0   0
MIO   58  81  62  83 /   0  20   0   0
F10   57  85  59  87 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   57  81  58  84 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...30