Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
088 FXUS64 KTSA 140516 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1216 AM CDT Thu Aug 14 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1215 AM CDT Thu Aug 14 2025 - Low daily chances of showers and thunderstorms mainly confined to the higher terrain across far eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas during the afternoon hours. - Heat index values increase to near or above 100 degrees late this week and weekend for much of the area. Heat headlines will likely be required for some locations during this time. && .SHORT TERM... (Through Today) Issued at 1215 AM CDT Thu Aug 14 2025 Quiet night tonight with seasonable low temps in the upper 60s and 70s. Weak upper trough axis will continue to shift east of the region today as upper level ridging expands back across the Southern Plains. This will result in hotter temps and lower overall coverage of afternoon convection, except for an isolated shower or storm over the high terrain of NW AR and SE OK. Dew points again running in low-mid 70s will yield heat indices in the 100-105 range for parts of eastern OK and west central AR, with a few spots at least briefly exceeding 105. However it does not look sufficient for an advisory at this time. && .LONG TERM... (Tonight through Wednesday) Issued at 1215 AM CDT Thu Aug 14 2025 Ridge will continue to expand over the forecast area Friday with expansion of hot temperatues through the weekend. During this time more widespread and longer duration of HI in excess of 105 degrees appears likely, and multiple days of heat headlines will potentially be needed. There remains a signal of isolated diurnal convection each day through the weekend, but most places will remain dry. Some change in the pattern possible next week as a strong trough moves across the Northeast/Great Lakes and the ridge axis shifts back toward the western CONUS. Resultant upper level flow would become more northerly in this case, potentially bringing a frontal boundary at least close to the area. However there remains considerable spread in ensembles this far out and forecast continues to ride with the NBM depicting a slight downward trend in temperatures and low chances of precipitation expanding into the remainder of the area. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1215 AM CDT Thu Aug 14 2025 VFR conditions and light winds should prevail through the period, with mainly diurnal cumulus expected cloud-wise and likely more peak sky coverage at western Arkansas sites. Some guidance sources indicate some light fog development around sunrise mainly at FYV and the current temp/dew point spread at BVO indicates some potential there as well. Will not include for now at either site but will monitor trends and adjust as needed. Isolated afternoon storm potential will exist again mainly for FYV and FSM, but expected coverage precludes inclusion in the TAFs once again. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 95 76 98 78 / 0 0 0 0 FSM 97 76 98 77 / 0 0 10 10 MLC 95 75 96 76 / 0 0 10 0 BVO 95 71 97 73 / 0 0 0 0 FYV 94 71 95 73 / 10 0 10 0 BYV 95 71 96 72 / 0 0 10 0 MKO 95 74 96 75 / 0 0 10 0 MIO 95 73 97 75 / 0 0 0 0 F10 95 73 96 75 / 0 0 10 0 HHW 94 74 94 74 / 0 0 10 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...14 LONG TERM....14 AVIATION...22