676
FXUS64 KTSA 141646
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1146 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1055 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

 - Very Hot conditions continue through the weekend.

 - The breezy and hot weather will result in some increase in
   wild fire risk today and Saturday. Drying vegetation and
   and timber support this potential in both wooded and
   grass areas.

 - A weak front will move into the area late Sunday and Monday.
   This will result in a few thunderstorms developing near and
   north of I-40, with a little lower temperatures Monday. Higher
   humidity around the front will tend to offset any reduction
   of the heat. This minor tweak to the pattern does not
   reflect the potential for a significant cool down through the
   middle of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 1055 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

Temperatures late this morning have been running a few degrees
cooler in eastern Oklahoma as compared to yesterday, with values
about as we saw 24 hours ago in northwest Arkansas. Dew points
are up 2 to 4 degrees higher in far southeast Oklahoma, and about the
same or a couple of degrees lower than yesterday elsewhere. Overall
temperatures / heat index values will be near or a little lower than
yesterday, but still at Heat Warning criteria in much of northeast
Oklahoma, and near that criteria at some northwest Arkansas locations.
A Heat Advisory remains in effect for areas outside the warning.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Friday)
Issued at 1055 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

The forecast trends remain unchanged with the large upper-level
high over the region shifting westward a bit and flattening so
that one or more upper-level disturbances can brush the area late
Sunday and Monday. Depending on storm coverage and associated
clouds, temperatures ahead of the front on Sunday could get
back near the highest readings of this heat wave before moderating
a bit with the front and some extra clouds. Any reduction in
temperature with the front will be offset some by an increase in
humidity.

The heat is expected to build again starting on Tuesday. There
is still no strong signal for a major change to our weather pattern
through the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1140 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Gusty south-
southwesterly winds will continue at all sites through early
evening, redeveloping everywhere except FSM mid morning tomorrow.
LLWS remains most likely at the NE OK sites, with perhaps a brief
period at NW AR where a mention will not be included due to low
confidence and expected short duration.

AVIATION...22


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL  104  83 103  82 /   0   0   0   0
FSM  104  79 103  79 /   0   0   0   0
MLC  103  80 102  79 /   0   0   0   0
BVO  105  79 104  77 /   0   0   0   0
FYV  100  77 100  77 /   0   0   0   0
BYV  100  78 100  77 /   0   0   0   0
MKO  102  79 101  77 /   0   0   0   0
MIO  101  80 100  78 /   0   0   0   0
F10  103  78 101  77 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   99  79  98  77 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Sunday for OKZ049-053-065-068-069-
     071-073>075-172-176-272-276-376.

     Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ055>064-
     066-067-070-154-254-354.

     Heat Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 PM CDT Sunday for
     OKZ055>064-066-067-070-154-254-354.

AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Sunday for ARZ001-002-010-011-119-
     120-129-219-220-229.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...22