186
FXUS64 KTSA 201152
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
652 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 340 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025

  - Showers and thunderstorms continue this morning into mid
    afternoon, with an increasing severe threat again including
    tornado potential by early afternoon. Localized heavy rains
    will worsen any ongoing flooding.

  - Drier weather returns Monday and Tuesday, but unsettled
    weather resumes by midweek and continues into next weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 340 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025

A large MCS is slowly winding down over the forecast area early
this morning, with only an isolated severe weather threat
remaining, especially in far northwest Arkansas.

Renewed convective development is expected later this morning as
the main upper low moves into Oklahoma and a surface low lifts
northeast across the state. This activity will strengthen by
midday into early afternoon, with some storms becoming severe,
especially from far eastern Oklahoma into northwest Arkansas. All
severe weather hazards including tornadoes will be possible. The
severe weather threat should then exit northwest Arkansas by mid
to late afternoon. Additional rainfall amounts of up to 1-2 inches
will be possible, which will aggravate any ongoing flooding
conditions. High temperatures today will range from the upper 60s
to mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 340 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025

Dry weather will finally return Monday and Tuesday, with daytime
temperatures warming above the seasonal averages. Unsettled
weather returns by late Tuesday night through next weekend, with
daily thunderstorm chances as weak shortwaves move across the
southern plains in a west southwest flow aloft pattern. The NBM
pops remain too aggressive for each specific time period given the
overall nebulous pattern and thus have lowered them once again. A
weak cold front looks to move through around Friday, so storm
chances may drop slightly by Saturday, but will remain non zero.
Temperatures will likely remain near or slightly above the
seasonal averages through the entire forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 652 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025

Ceilings varying from IFR to VFR along with rain showers and a few
thunderstorms will continue into mid morning across the CWA. By
mid morning MVFR to VFR conditions and scattered showers are
expected ahead of a more defined line of convection forecast to
develop/move into the CWA. This line of strong to severe
convection is forecast to quickly move from west to east through
the region ahead of the cold front finally moving through the
region. Within the convection, IFR/MVFR conditions, gusty to
strong winds and heavy rainfall are all possible. Precipitation
should taper off and exit northwest Arkansas TAF sites by late
afternoon. Behind the precip, scattered to broken VFR ceilings
should become common through late afternoon. Cloud cover on the
backside of a low pressure system moving through the region looks
to spread MVFR ceilings back into northeast Oklahoma and northwest
Arkansas this evening into the overnight hours. These return
clouds look to hold in far northwest Arkansas through the end of
the TAF period. Also behind the precip will be gusty west to
southwesterly winds which should weaken Sunday evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   70  46  76  54 / 100   0   0   0
FSM   74  49  79  53 /  90  10   0   0
MLC   72  47  78  53 /  80   0   0   0
BVO   68  41  76  50 / 100   0   0   0
FYV   72  45  74  48 / 100  10   0   0
BYV   72  47  74  51 / 100  10   0   0
MKO   72  46  77  52 /  90   0   0   0
MIO   70  43  73  52 /  90  10   0   0
F10   70  45  77  53 /  90   0   0   0
HHW   72  48  78  53 /  80   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch through this evening for OKZ049-053>076.

AR...Flood Watch through this evening for ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-
     029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...20