245
FXUS64 KTSA 070308
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1005 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

...New SHORT TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 241 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

  - Strong to severe storms and heavy rainfall will occur again
    tonight into Saturday morning, especially across northeast
    Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. Focus of heavy rain may
    shift slightly southward Saturday night into Sunday and even
    more southward Saturday night into Sunday.

  - The multiple rounds of rainfall will result in an increased
    flash and main-stem river flooding threat.

  - A cold front will bring a chance for storms early next week,
    with drying conditions expected midweek. Odds favor below
    average temperatures for this time of year through mid week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight)
Issued at 1005 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

A few showers have developed recently near and just north of
Interstate 40 in eastern Oklahoma, and additional shower and
thunderstorm development may continue to occur in this general area
over the next few hours, with this activity moving northeast and
carrying a limited severe weather threat.

Like last night, the main event will hold off until later
tonight...mainly after 3 am...into early Saturday morning when
another MCS is expected to move across much of the forecast area.
The far northeast and southern parts of the forecast area may miss
the brunt of this activity, but the rest of the area will see storms
with a damaging wind potential, along with heavy rainfall and
possible flooding concerns. Hail will be a lesser concern, and once
again there may be a couple isolated spinup tornadoes.

Made some minor adjustments to pops overnight, with the rest of the
forecast looking good at this time.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Friday)
Issued at 241 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

Strong to severe thunderstorms will be ongoing once again
Saturday morning as a messy complex pushes across eastern OK and
northwest AR. Storms are expected to weaken and shift east of the
forecast area by late morning or early afternoon Saturday and
skies should begin clearing up by mid-afternoon or so. There is
still some uncertainty with what happens Saturday evening/night,
with another shortwave trough pushing over the Southern Plains,
embedded in the overall northwest flow aloft. Additionally, the
frontal boundary that has been oscillating across our forecast
area last couple of days will gradually push southward Saturday
afternoon/evening. This combination may cause moderate to heavy
rainfall, especially in the vicinity of the frontal boundary. As
the boundary pushes south of the Red River Saturday evening/night,
precipitation/storm chances will gradually shift south as well.
Storms that develop along the front may be strong and/or severe
and will pose a flooding threat. Better details on timing and
locations to come later.

A stronger frontal boundary will push through on Sunday
evening/night, with possibly another MCS that develops Sunday
night into Monday morning that still looks to mostly affect
southeast OK and western AR. Once again severe storms and a
flooding potential will occur with it.

Mostly dry weather is expected by midweek, though precipitation
chances still wont be zero for some portions (mostly southern) of
the CWA. Another active and wet weather pattern is expected by
mid-late week next week as another mid-level low/trough moves
overhead.


Mejia

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 620 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

VFR conditions are likely to prevail for much of this evening across
E OK and NW AR before additional showers and thunderstorms develop
overnight. Highest chance of impacts occur across NE OK and NW AR
sites, primarily between 08-14z, as a complex of thunderstorms is
expected to move east-southeast through the region. There is also a
lower potential for isolated to scattered convection to develop
across E-Central OK/ NW AR during the late evening and early
overnight hours... though any impacts from this activity are less
certain. Did include a PROB30 group for MLC between 03-08z to cover
this potential, but may need to introduce mention for NW AR sites as
well if trends become more favorable. A period of MVFR to IFR cigs
and scattered showers are likely following storms tonight/ tomorrow
morning, especially across NE OK/ NW AR sites. By the afternoon
hours, all sites are forecast to improve to VFR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   68  85  65  90 /  80  70  10  10
FSM   72  88  67  91 /  50  80  30  10
MLC   72  88  66  90 /  40  60  40  10
BVO   65  84  62  89 /  80  60   0  10
FYV   67  84  62  88 /  70  90  20  10
BYV   66  82  62  86 /  60  90  10   0
MKO   69  83  64  88 /  60  80  20  10
MIO   66  82  62  86 /  70  80  10  10
F10   68  85  64  88 /  60  70  20  10
HHW   73  89  70  90 /  10  40  40  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch through Saturday afternoon for OKZ054>072.

AR...Flood Watch through Saturday afternoon for ARZ001-002-010-011-
     019-020.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...43