717
FXUS64 KTSA 040512
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1212 AM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1206 AM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

 - Unsettled pattern and plentiful moisture return to maintain
   daily shower and thunderstorm chances Thursday through the
   weekend and into early next week. Heavy rain and localized
   flooding are the main concerns. The most widespread rain looks
   to be in the Saturday night and Sunday time frame.

 - Organized severe storms are not anticipated, but an occasional
   strong and/or marginally severe storm cannot be ruled out
   almost each day.

 - Hot and humid weather arrives next week, with heat headlines
   possible by midweek.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Thursday)
Issued at 1132 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026

An increasingly moist airmass will spread back across the area
Thursday as the first in a series of upper level disturbances
moves across the area. Shower and thunderstorm activity will
increase as a result, especially from southeast Oklahoma into
Northwest Arkansas during the afternoon, with locally heavy
rainfall possible. Afternoon high temperatures will mostly be in
the low to mid 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 1132 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026

Daily shower and storm chances will continue Friday into early
next week as upper level disturbances continue to move across the
area. Most of the precipitation Friday will once again be focused
from southeast Oklahoma into northwest Arkansas, with chances
increasing area wide over the weekend. The strongest system looks
to impact our area Saturday night and Sunday, and this will be the
period of most widespread and likely heaviest rainfall.

Upper level ridging looks to take over during the early to middle
part of next week, with lessening rain chances and building heat
and humidity. Heat headlines may eventually be required in some
places by the middle of next week given current forecast
temperatures and dew points.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1206 AM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

Mainly quiet weather expected overnight with scattered mid and
high clouds but dry conditions. Winds will be light, favoring the
east. Ceilings will develop and lower after sunrise, down to 3-5
kft for most areas. Showers and storms will develop, but coverage
will focus in northwest Arkansas. Any storms may result in lowered
visibility, heavy rain, lightning, and gusty winds. Skies are
expected to clear out by the evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   86  71  87  72 /  20  10  10  10
FSM   86  70  88  71 /  60  20  20  20
MLC   86  71  87  72 /  40  10  20  30
BVO   86  69  88  70 /  20  10   0   0
FYV   84  68  85  69 /  50  10  20  10
BYV   83  66  84  68 /  30  10  20  10
MKO   85  69  87  70 /  40  10  20  20
MIO   86  69  87  70 /  30  10  10  10
F10   85  69  86  70 /  20  10  10  20
HHW   84  70  85  71 /  60  20  30  40

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...06