154
FXUS64 KTSA 121507
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
907 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 907 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025

 - Minor winter weather impacts ongoing today, with a wintry mix
   across northeast Oklahoma into northwest Arkansas.
   Precipitation will come to an end from west to east during the
   day.

 - Cold temperatures and wind chill values Thursday but
   temperatures will rebound for Friday.

 - Another weather system brings additional rain and snow
   Saturday, with cooler temperatures lasting into Sunday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 907 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025

Precipitation is tapering off this morning from west to east as a
shortwave trough slides east across the Plains. The transition
zone, where a mix of sleet and freezing rain is occurring,
stretches from east-central OK up into northwest AR. The precip
has largely changed over to snow to the north of that across much
of northeast OK, as colder air continues to filter into the
region. We`ve had reports of around 2 inches of snow up toward
Bartlesville and Pawhuska, with two tenths to a quarter inch of
sleet in and around the Tulsa metro. There was a tenth of an inch
of sleet accumulation near Bella Vista. As stated earlier, the
precip is tapering off quickly from west to east, and thus little
to no additional accumulation is expected across much of eastern
OK. For the folks down in SE OK and west-central AR, this has
been a rain event with very little impact.

Lacy

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 245 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025

The main story for this forecast period will be what takes place
today across the region. Current observations show the surface
freezing line extending form near Okemah to Okmulgee to near Pryor
and Grove. This line is likely to remain stationary or slowly sag
south a little more through the mid morning hours. Additionally
strong warm advection and isentropic ascent atop an elevated
frontal boundary situated near the surface boundary has lead to
the development of light precipitation across much of northeast
Oklahoma overnight tonight. This has mainly been in the form of
light drizzle/freezing drizzle thus far. As surface temps continue
to cool, a glaze of ice will become likely on elevated surfaces
and on roadways, especially from near the I-44 corridor and points
north where temps have dropped into the upper 20s. This freezing
drizzle will expand in coverage through the morning hours before
the main wave arrives from the west before dawn.

Heavier precipitation will expand in coverage across all of
northeast Oklahoma and into northwest Arkansas through the mid
morning hours. Forecast soundings continue to indicate a messy
precip mode with all types of wintry precipitation possible
between I-44 and I-40 this morning. For the Tulsa metro areas and
points near I-44, sleet looks to be the dominate precip type with
more snow near the Kansas border and more freezing rain/sleet mix
further south. Locations south of I-40 will still likely see all
rain with a low chance at seeing a little sleet mix in closer to
I-40 this morning. Elevated instability associated with increasing
lapse rates as the wave approaches the region will also allow for
some thunder across eastern Oklahoma this morning. Sleet/snow
would accumulate rapidly within any thunderstorms and quickly
cause travel issues around the time of the morning commute in the
Tulsa area. Convective activity could act to mix the upper levels
a little more, where snow could be more likely within the
convective storms. Hence the tricky forecast situation this
morning with figuring out precip types. All that said, have opted
to continue with the Winter Weather Advisory, though some narrow
bands of sleet could potentially hit warning criteria in isolated
areas. One saving grace is that the system is moving quickly and
the heavier precipitation will not last long. Lingering snow or
rain showers will last into the early afternoon, mainly across
northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas, with little additional
accumulation expected with this activity.

As it stands now, accumulations have not changed much from the
previous forecast, with up to 2" of mainly snow near the OK/KS
border, up to 1-2" of a sleet/snow mix across the rest of
northeast Oklahoma into northwest Arkansas. Additionally, more
freezing rain is expected into the Ozarks with more ice
accumulations of a tenth or two tenths of an inch through early
afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 245 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025

Arctic air fully spills into the region this evening and tonight
with lows expected to dip into the teens with some single digits
likely near the OK/KS border. That combined with gusty northerly
winds will lead to wind chills near to slightly below zero along
and north of I-44, and single digit wind chills across the rest of
the area. A Cold Weather Advisory could be needed for some
locations for Thursday morning and will let the next shift
evaluate the latest data for the details. Thursday will be cold
under the influence of the Arctic air. A fast moving weak mid
level wave could also spawn a few snow showers early Thursday
across parts of eastern Oklahoma. Little to no accumulation is
expected but some light snow could be seen during this time.

Increasing southerly winds on Friday along with some sunshine will
help temps rebound back to near normal ahead of the next system heading
into the weekend. The next system is set to affect the region On
Saturday and Sunday. This looks to mainly be a rain maker, but
some wintry precip will be possible late in the day Saturday and
Saturday night as the system departs the area. Arctic air will
again be ushered into the region behind this frontal passage with
well below normal temperatures lasting into the early part of next
week. some guidance then indicates another storm system could
bring another chance for winter precipitation early to middle part
of next week. The cold air in place during this time would
indicate more snow to be expected. Guidance diverges on the
timing and track of this system, so will continue to monitor the
potential as it gets closer. One thing looks for certain, that
below normal temperatures look to last through much of the period
and into the extended range.

Bowlan

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 534 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025

Rain, freezing rain, sleet, snow, and a few thunderstorms will be
ending from west to east this morning. IFR to MVFR ceilings will
then prevail through early evening, with VFR conditions returning
by late evening and overnight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   31  15  32  22 /  90  20   0   0
FSM   40  21  39  26 / 100   0  10   0
MLC   36  19  36  27 /  80  10   0   0
BVO   27   9  30  16 /  80  10   0   0
FYV   35  15  33  22 / 100  10  10   0
BYV   34  15  31  21 / 100   0   0   0
MKO   35  16  34  23 /  90  20   0   0
MIO   30  12  29  18 / 100   0   0   0
F10   33  16  34  22 /  80  20   0   0
HHW   42  22  41  29 /  80   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Winter Weather Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for
     OKZ054>069.

AR...Winter Weather Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for ARZ001-
     010.

     Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST today for ARZ002-011.

&&

$$

UPDATE...30
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...05