682
FXUS64 KTSA 110419
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1119 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1119 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

 - Brief cool down and some potential for showers and storms
   continues into Friday but unseasonably hot temperatures return
   over the weekend through next week.

 - Thunderstorm chances return Saturday however confidence is low
   in exact placement and coverage.

 - While locally heavy rainfall is possible through Friday night,
   the ongoing drought conditions will require much more rainfall
   for improvement. Fire weather concerns will continue during
   periods of stronger winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Friday)
Issued at 1119 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

Widely scattered showers and a few thunderstorms have developed
late this evening across parts of far eastern Oklahoma and western
Arkansas in response to the mid level wave across the area. CAMs
continue to advertise some increase in coverage after midnight,
particularly across western Arkansas, although the overall
coverage and intensity appear to be less than earlier thought. One
noticeable forecast change with this package has been to decrease
the forecast rainfall using the most recent short-term blended
guidance. The potential for additional showers and thunderstorms
during the day will continue in this same area, although the
western edge will shift eastward with time.

Given the rains seen earlier today and some clearing across parts
of northeast Oklahoma north of I-44, patchy fog development will
be possible toward daybreak. A mention has been added to the
forecast through mid morning.

Temperatures will remain near to maybe a degree or two above
normal, depending on location, and likely slightly cooler than
the NBM initialization, especially in north and eastern parts of
the forecast area. Highs for Friday have been nudged closer to
the short-term blend.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 1119 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

Most of the Friday night period should be dry, although a modest
increase in shower and thunderstorm potential exists for parts of
northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas toward daybreak
Saturday given the amount of low level warm advection. This
potential will continue through the day, although uncertainty
remains high regarding coverage and location of the greatest
potential. Forecast POPs on Saturday reflect a broadbrushed
version of a blend between the NBM and short-term blend. The highs
for Saturday have been left alone from the NBM given the
uncertainty regarding how much rain and convective cloud cover
will be around during the day. Heat headlines will need to at
least be considered for parts of the area Saturday.

Another batch of showers and thunderstorms will approach the
Kansas border from the north Saturday night into early Sunday, but
confidence is higher that this will not move too far south into
the area given the building upper level high. Highs on Sunday and
again on Monday are likely to be pushing triple digits across a
good chunk of the area. The NBM initialization was largely
accepted for highs both days, although some targeted increases
were applied to account for recent low biases at a few sites. Heat
headlines will likely be needed both days. Fire weather concerns
will increase once again on Sunday and especially on Monday due to
the return of gusty southerly winds.

Unseasonably hot conditions will extend through at least the
middle of next week, with only low chances for showers and
thunderstorms during the period, focused across areas near the
Kansas border and the northern edge of the upper high. Uncertainty
increases thereafter, with continued signs of another front
approaching the area late week into next weekend. The most recent
data indicates a later possible passage of this front than at this
same time yesterday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 641 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

Majority of the thunderstorm activity has dissipated early this
evening, but some low chances will remain at the Arkansas
terminals through tonight. Model guidance shows another round of
shower and thunderstorms overnight tonight, mainly across far
southeast Oklahoma and western Arkansas. Maintained PROB30 groups
at KXNA, KROG, KFYV, and KFSM from mid evening through the early
morning hours on Friday. Clouds will clear out across portions of
northeast Oklahoma tonight. Guidance suggests light, patchy fog
may develop north of US-412, with MVFR/IFR cigs possible at KTUL
and KRVS, between midnight and mid morning. Additional cigs may
develop across southeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas around
sunrise. Cigs lift and VFR is expected to prevail at all TAF sites
by late morning or midday.

Mejia

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   68  89  74  94 /  20   0  20  30
FSM   73  89  72  98 /  80  40  20  20
MLC   70  92  72  99 /  50  20   0  30
BVO   62  88  67  93 /   0   0  20  30
FYV   65  85  67  95 /  60  30  30  30
BYV   68  85  68  93 /  60  40  20  30
MKO   67  89  70  95 /  40  10  20  20
MIO   66  88  68  92 /  10  10  20  20
F10   67  90  71  97 /  20  10   0  30
HHW   72  93  72  97 /  50  50   0  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....22
AVIATION...67