982
FXUS64 KTSA 030539
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1239 AM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1123 PM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025

   - Low to medium (20-50%) chance of showers and storms through
     the weekend. Locally heavy rainfall, downburst winds, and
     lightning will be the primary hazards.

   - Humid conditions will return by the end of this week with
     heat indices reaching 95-100 F across the area by Saturday
     and continuing through early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Thursday)
Issued at 1048 PM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025

A few high-based showers continue to move across SE OK this
evening, and should see this continue with some expansion in
coverage possible as moist advection persists in the lower
levels. Most short range guidance continues to support further
development into parts of northeast OK and perhaps west central AR
Thursday morning and through the afternoon with the arrival of
slightly stronger forcing and continued influence of subtropical
Pacific moisture plume, but development into northwest AR is less
likely as deeper moisture is lacking farther east. Fairly
persistent cloud cover for most areas will keep daytime temps
below normal, albeit with humid conditions and light winds.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 1048 PM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025

Showers and storms will diminish Thursday evening, though at least
spotty light showers may persist through the night. Additional
expansion of showers thunderstorms are anticipated late Thursday
night into Friday morning as a weak trough moves across the plains
to our north. PWAT values will be approaching 2 inches in some
places by that time, so any more organized cells could produce
localized heavy rain, with emphasis remaining across eastern OK
in proximity to deepest moisture. By late afternoon and evening
the overall forcing weakens and shifts north, but with deep
moisture remaining in place at least a low threat of a shower or
storm will persist through the evening of the 4th, however most
locations should remain dry.

As we move into next week, the upper ridge becomes established
over the southwest states, with local area remaining under weak
NW flow. The overall pattern favors a return to temps closer to
normal, but will also maintain at least low thunderstorm chances
for some areas through mid-week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1237 AM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

Mainly VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. A
few showers and thunderstorms will be possible Thursday, mainly
during the afternoon, with the eastern Oklahoma sites and KFSM
most likely to be impacted.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   88  71  89  74 /  20  10  30  20
FSM   90  73  92  74 /  20   0  20  10
MLC   86  70  89  72 /  40  20  30  10
BVO   88  68  89  72 /  20  10  30  20
FYV   89  68  90  71 /  10   0  20  10
BYV   90  69  90  70 /   0   0  20  10
MKO   86  70  87  72 /  20  10  30  10
MIO   89  69  90  71 /  10   0  30  10
F10   85  70  87  72 /  30  10  30  10
HHW   85  72  88  72 /  40  20  30  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...05