502
FXUS64 KTSA 050541
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1241 AM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 900 PM CDT Wed Jun 4 2025

  - An active weather pattern that favors mainly nighttime into
    early morning strong to severe storm complexes is expected
    beginning Thursday night and ending Sunday morning.

  - Multiple rounds of rainfall will lead to an increasing flash
    and main-stem river flooding threat.

  - A change in the weather pattern is expected by early next
    week. A cold front will bring a chance for storms Sunday into
    Monday. Odds favor below average temps for this time of year.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 900 PM CDT Wed Jun 4 2025

The current forecast is trending well this evening and no
significant changes were required at this time. Isolated showers/
drizzle continue along a stalled frontal boundary in far eastern
Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. While rainfall will be spotty,
precip may continue overnight with modest LLJ. Will keep slight
chance PoPs in place here for much of the night, though activity
should shift east with time. Short term guidance continues to
suggest fog development overnight, perhaps locally dense, mainly
across far northeastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.
Otherwise, a quiet night is in store and the previous discussion
remains valid.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Thursday)
Issued at 233 PM CDT Wed Jun 4 2025

Early afternoon surface analysis and satellite data shows a
quasi-stationary front hung up in the terrain of far E OK and NW
AR. CAMs show some potential for scattered showers and storms
mainly on the eastern fringes of the Tulsa NWS area of
responsibility this afternoon and early evening. Even if storms
develop, deep layer shear is weak so storms will have a hard time
organizing with wet microbursts the most likely threat. The
overall severe threat is pretty small. The remainder of the night
is expected to be fairly quiet as any storm activity coming off
the High Plains should remain well to the west. Some fog was added
to the grids for late tonight into Thursday morning per latest
short-term guidance. The latest CAMs also suggest that the bulk of
the day Thursday will be quiet also, as any activity coming in
from the west is expected to dissipate in the slowly modifying but
still relatively cooler airmass in place over the region.

Lacy

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 233 PM CDT Wed Jun 4 2025

The combination of an ejecting PV max from the southwest CONUS, a
building mid-level ridge over Deep South TX and persistent
troughing over the north-central CONUS will cause mid-level
westerly flow to strengthen over the forecast area Thursday, and
this flow will remain strong thru Saturday. A multi-night stretch
of strong to severe MCS potential begins Thursday night as storms
organize off the High Plains and come east to southeast across
OK and eventually into W AR. The complexes will likely not take
the same track each time, probably trending southward each time,
but any overlap could bring multiple rounds of heavy rainfall on
the same areas, increasing the flash flood threat. EPS ensemble
mean QPF values aren`t super high (1.5" to 2.5") thru Sunday
morning, suggesting the possibility that the heavier rains from
the complexes may get distributed over more of the area. That
said, a widespread multi inch rain over the region will increase
the potential for main-stem river flooding.

The upper flow pattern is expected to change by early next week,
as a broad upper trough is expected to dig south over the Upper
Midwest and Great Lakes from Canada. This will force a cold front
south down the Plains with another associated chance of showers
and storms Sunday into Monday. The latest EC has things drying out
by Tuesday behind the front, with temps near or slightly below
average for this time of year.

Lacy

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1240 AM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025

Poor aviating conditions are expected through the first half of
the TAF period, with widespread IFR/MVFR ceilings and potential
for fog development early this morning at the far NW AR terminals.
Ceilings will improve this afternoon with VFR conditions arriving
by mid to late afternoon areawide. Winds will remain light through
the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   67  84  68  84 /  80  70  70  50
FSM   72  86  71  87 /  60  70  50  70
MLC   72  87  70  87 /  60  60  50  60
BVO   65  82  64  82 /  90  60  70  50
FYV   67  82  66  83 /  60  80  60  70
BYV   67  80  66  81 /  50  80  60  70
MKO   67  83  67  82 /  70  80  70  70
MIO   65  81  66  82 /  80  80  60  50
F10   67  84  67  83 /  70  70  70  60
HHW   74  88  72  88 /  20  30  20  40

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...22