Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
234 FXUS64 KTSA 030542 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1242 AM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1239 AM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025 - Off and on shower and storm chances primarily eastern Oklahoma Sunday morning through Monday afternoon. Highest PoPs west of U.S. 75. - Cooler than normal weather continues through Monday with highs in the 80s and lows in the upper 50s to 60s. - Warming trend through the end of the week with a return to above average temperatures by Thursday. Heat headlines could return late in the week. && .SHORT TERM... (Through Tonight) Issued at 1239 AM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025 A large surface ridge remains in place late Saturday evening across the upper Midwest with light easterly flow across western AR and eastern OK. Dewpoints near 60 degrees are observed in the far northeast corner of OK and northwest AR with more typical for this time of year lower 70s values near the Red River. Stronger southeasterly flow has become better established across the High Plains where MCSs are ongoing from western KS into the OK and TX Panhandles. Sufficient instability and shear downstream from the complexes will help maintain one or two clusters overnight, though in weakening form, as they track southeast. The latest short term guidance brings a small cluster into northeast OK after 12Z with propagation via outflow as far east as the I-44 corridor. We expanded PoPs eastward some from the initial blend with the signal showing up in a handful of CAMs. Activity will struggle to move too far east as instability and upper support quickly fades. Additional storms are likely to form across western KS Sunday afternoon as more shortwave energy drops into northwest flow aloft and helps deepen the broader trough that will take shape by Monday morning over the area. Considerable cloud cover through the day will help keep temperatures once again several degrees below average. The threat of strong to severe storms will remain very low through the period as the best combination of shear and instability remains well to our west through tonight. Locally heavy rainfall will however continue to be a concern tonight where the greatest concentration of storms occur within an axis of higher PWATs extending from central KS through central OK into north TX. The highest PoPs for our area will reside on the eastern side of this zone, generally west of U.S. 75. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Sunday) Issued at 1239 AM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025 As the upper trough axis deepens and moves east on Monday, rain chances will continue to be limited to mainly eastern OK thanks to the lingering affects of the surface ridge which includes weak northerly surface flow and poor low level moisture keeping convective inhibition high and instability low over Arkansas. Any lingering convection should dissipate Monday afternoon as subsidence kicks in on the back side of the exiting shortwave. Long range guidance is similar in building the upper level ridge originally over southern AZ into NM by mid week. This will keep eastern OK and northwest AR on the eastern side of the ridge and in relatively better 500 mb flow, at least through Wednesday morning. Ensemble guidance hints at the potential for some convection to develop to our north and edge across the KS border but the latest blend maintains a dry forecast. Otherwise, a warming trend is expected through the week as thicknesses rise back above 580 decameters leading to afternoon temperatures back to or above normal from Thursday into next weekend. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1239 AM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025 VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. Shower and storm chances remain too low to include in the TAF`s at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 84 68 85 67 / 30 40 20 0 FSM 88 68 87 69 / 10 10 10 0 MLC 86 67 86 66 / 20 40 30 0 BVO 84 63 85 63 / 30 50 10 0 FYV 84 63 84 63 / 10 10 10 10 BYV 84 62 84 62 / 10 10 10 10 MKO 84 67 84 65 / 20 30 20 0 MIO 84 65 85 63 / 20 30 10 10 F10 84 66 83 65 / 30 40 30 0 HHW 86 68 84 68 / 20 20 30 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...24 LONG TERM....24 AVIATION...05