217
FXUS64 KTSA 181722
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1222 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1204 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025

 - Dangerous heat will persist through Tuesday in most areas, with
heat headlines required for many locations each day. Isolated
afternoon convection will be possible again today.

 - Shower and storm chances increase across mainly northeast
Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas Tuesday, then spread south Tuesday
night and Wednesday as a cold front moves across the area. This cold
front will provide some relief from the heat for the middle to
latter part of the week through next weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 1204 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025

Hot and humid weather continues today with high pressure remaining
across the region. A Heat Advisory is in effect until 8 PM today for
most of the region, with afternoon heat indices of 105-110 F for
most areas. Some subtle lift will allow for some diurnal showers and
storms this afternoon (15-25% chance), mainly across southeast OK
and northwest AR. Impacts will be minor, with just some brief heavy
rain, lightning, and gusty winds near any storms.

It`ll be another mild night tonight, with lows in the 70s. A few
showers and storms (20% chance) may develop towards the KS border
near the end of the short term period from an approaching feature.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Monday)
Issued at 1204 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025

The large upper level high that has dominated the weather pattern
lately will strengthen, but will shift east as it does so, opening
the door to shortwave troughs impacting the area. The first will be
ongoing Tuesday morning. It is very weak, but there may be just
enough lift to kick off storms near daybreak. CAM guidance is
inconsistent, but there will at least be some potential for showers
and storms for the first part of the day. Even so, hot temperatures
are still expected. A Heat Advisory will be in effect Tuesday from
noon to 8 PM. Afternoon heat indices will again exceed 105 F for
much of the area. However, there is some potential for thicker
clouds to impede heating, and if this turns out to be the case,
the Heat Advisory could be cancelled early.

The next trough (and associated surface front) move through late
Tuesday into Wednesday, with a renewed chance of showers and storms.
Maintained PoPs of 20-40% across the area for this period. A few
storms could be marginally severe, but widespread impactful weather
is not expected. Any storms will be capable of locally heavy
rainfall and minor flash flood potential. Conditions will cool
Wednesday onwards, with highs dropped into the 80s or low 90s for
most locations (coolest in the north). Dry or mostly dry weather
will then persist into the weekend, with the best chance of a couple
of showers in southeast OK each afternoon.

Late next weekend into early next week a deep trough will plow into
the northeast USA with the upper level high retreating west. As this
trough will be associated with a strong surface high, cooler air
will move in from the north. The most likely outcome based on
ensemble guidance will be a several day period of northwest flow,
implying increasing rain chances and below normal temperatures.
Smaller subsets of guidance either keep the trough too far east and
we stay warm and humid or bring the trough closer so we are cooler
but dry. As of now, it`s difficult to say more than that.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025

VFR conditions are expected through the period, with generally
light to moderate southwesterly winds through this afternoon. A
few isolated showers or storms will be possible, mainly across NW
AR this afternoon, but coverage and best chances being east of any
terminals preclude any mention in the TAFs at this point.
Additional shower/storm chances will increase tomorrow morning
across NE OK with better chances for KBVO, so have included PROB30
for tomorrow morning. Chances could extend further into NE OK
sites with further updates. Otherwise, scattered mid cloud cover
will be noted over the region.

Bowlan

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   78  98  74  90 /  10  20  30  20
FSM   77 101  76  93 /   0  20  30  40
MLC   74 100  74  92 /   0  20  20  30
BVO   73  97  70  89 /  20  20  30  20
FYV   72  97  69  88 /  10  30  40  40
BYV   74  97  70  87 /  10  30  40  40
MKO   75  98  74  91 /   0  20  30  30
MIO   74  98  72  89 /  10  20  30  20
F10   74  98  72  90 /   0  20  20  30
HHW   75 100  74  94 /   0  20  10  30

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ049-053>068-
     070>076.

     Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for OKZ049-053>068-
     070>076.

AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ001-002-019-020-
     029.

     Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for ARZ019-020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...04