240
FXUS64 KTSA 310821
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
221 AM CST Fri Jan 31 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 220 AM CST Fri Jan 31 2025

 - Areas of dense fog through early to mid morning.

 - Much above normal temperatures and dry this weekend into early
   next week.

 - Much cooler weather returns towards the end of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 220 AM CST Fri Jan 31 2025

The main near-term concern is the ongoing dense fog, with recent
satellite trends indicating further expansion southward into the
higher terrain areas in far southeast Oklahoma. The Dense Fog
Advisory has been expanded into Pushmataha and Choctaw counties in
the past hour, and considering both deterministic visibility progs
and HREF probabilistic information, the advisory has been extended
until 9 am. Also monitoring a potential need to expand the
advisory into the I-49 corridor in far northwest Arkansas, with
the observation at Siloam Springs having dropped to a quarter mile
briefly a couple of hours ago, although the visibility has since
increased there. As such, additions to the existing advisory are
within the realm of possibility this morning, depending on
observational trends. The fog should improve some after sunrise,
especially in parts of eastern Oklahoma as west to northwest winds
increase, with the expectation that it lingers in the Arkansas
River Valley.

Also this morning, light rain showers are expected to develop
across primarily parts of eastern Oklahoma to the north of I-40 in
that will shift to the east before diminishing toward midday
before moving into western Arkansas. Rain amounts should not be
substantial. The NBM POP initialization has been increased further
to the south to account for recent trends in the HRRR. The
afternoon should be largely dry, with near to just above normal
temperatures.

KAH

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 220 AM CST Fri Jan 31 2025

Another round of fog is expected late tonight, with the highest
likelihood of dense fog, per HREF probabilities, being across
parts of northeast Oklahoma and into the Arkansas River Valley. A
Dense Fog Advisory may be required, although it will not be issued
at this time to prevent potential confusion with the existing one
for the near term.

Well above normal temperatures remain on track for the weekend and
into next week as well, with downslope low level winds and plenty
of sun aiding in the warmup. Uncertainty persists regarding
temperatures and temperature trends for next week, associated with
differences in timing on the arrival of a cold front. Recent
deterministic data features some agreement in the overall
expectations, indicating the front should move into portions of
northeast Oklahoma and hanging up there before moving back
northward mid week. This means that there is higher uncertainty in
the forecast temperatures for parts of northeast Oklahoma than
southeast Oklahoma and even parts of western Arkansas. However,
we`re talking about the difference between highs in the 50s and
60s compared to 70s for the early part of the week. Wednesday
looks to be the day when the front lifts north of the area, with
potential for temperatures pushing record values. Will hang with
the NBM initialization on highs for now, but forecast highs may
need to be increased on future forecasts if this scenario
continues to look good. The big cooldown appears more likely to
occur late next week, with well below normal temperatures arriving
behind the strong cold front.

Overall, rain and thunderstorm chances during the extended appear
low, with the best chance being parts of northeast Oklahoma and
northwest Arkansas in the Wednesday to Thursday time frame.
Current indications are for light amounts.

KAH

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1051 PM CST Thu Jan 30 2025

Areas of dense fog and low (IFR/LIFR) ceilings will affect most
TAF sites, especially north of the I-40 corridor, overnight
tonight through mid-morning. Visibilities and ceilings will
improve (becoming VFR) mid-late morning for the OK sites, with
low (MVFR) ceilings lingering over far northwest AR terminals
through much of the afternoon and evening. West to northwest winds
will become gusty by midday as a cold front moves through the
area, with frequent gusts 20-25 knots through late afternoon/near
sunset.

Mejia

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   57  31  64  44 /  20   0   0   0
FSM   57  35  63  41 /  10   0   0   0
MLC   61  31  66  46 /  10   0   0   0
BVO   56  25  64  39 /  20   0   0   0
FYV   54  31  60  44 /  10   0   0   0
BYV   51  35  58  46 /  10   0   0   0
MKO   56  30  63  45 /  10   0   0   0
MIO   51  30  60  44 /  20   0   0   0
F10   58  30  65  46 /  10   0   0   0
HHW   61  34  64  44 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for OKZ049-
     053>076.

AR...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for ARZ019-020-
     029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....22
AVIATION...67