776
FXUS64 KTSA 250014
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
714 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 714 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025

 - A more unsettled weather regime begins late tonight into Monday
   as rain and maybe some thunder sweep across the region. Aside
   from a relative lull in the action midweek, much of the
   upcoming week is expected to be more unsettled with an
   increasing heavy rain threat by the latter part of the week.

 - Well below normal temperatures are forecast for the last week
   of August.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 714 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025

An overachieving MCS across western OK should stay to our west. A
few showers developed over southeast OK this afternoon but have
since dissipated as daytime heating drops off as sunset
approaches. The forecast thus stays largely quiet thru the
evening. After midnight, CAMs show more widespread shower and
storm coverage to our west and north as isentropic lift increases
atop the tail end of a front. This activity will track south and
east in the mean flow into the forecast area, likely after 09Z.
There is also some chance for a few showers to develop across
west- central AR or east-central OK as well ahead of this main
activity with another zone of isentropic ascent noted in the model
data there as well. With instability limited over our area,
thunder potential seems low and have reduced model blend thunder
probs to slight chance thru 12Z. Also adjusted overnight lows up
some above the model blend (closer to cold end of model envelope)
and closer to CONShort (middle of the road). Increasing cloud
after midnight suggests that the colder MOS isn`t the preferred
solution tonight compared to last night.

Lacy

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025

A strong cold front continues to progress southward through the
forecast area early this afternoon. Latest theta-e plot from the
Oklahoma Mesonet distinctively shows the cold front along or just
south of Highway 412. Temperatures ahead of the front will warm up
into the low-mid 90s this afternoon before its passage. Behind the
surface boundary, highs today will range from the upper-80s to near
90 degrees. Surface high pressure that is currently centered over
the Northern Plains will build southward over the Midwest region by
this evening/overnight. Isentropic lifting on the western periphery
of the surface ridge has already caused showers and thunderstorms to
develop across western KS and northwest OK. Most of this activity
should remain west of the forecast area through this
afternoon/evening, but the best opportunity (10%) of an isolated
shower/storm or two will be west of Highway 75 in northeast OK.

Precipitation chances/coverage will become more widespread starting
late tonight and into early Monday morning as a mid-level shortwave
trough, originating over the central High Plains, begins to move
over the area. Convection that develops in the central High Plains
this afternoon will gradually move into the forecast area, likely
after midnight tonight. Moderate to heavy rainfall will be possible
at the tail-end of the short-term period, especially across
northeast OK, with PWATs increasing through the overnight period.
Due to expected rainfall amounts totals just below flash flood
guidance for most areas, will forgo a Flood Watch at this time.
However, isolated flash flooding will still remain possible in
heavier rain clusters/bands and conditions for a Watch will be
reevaluated this afternoon and evening.

Comfortable conditions/temperatures will filter into the region
tonight behind the cold front this afternoon/evening. Overnight lows
will drop into the low-mid 60s north of I-40 and upper-60s to lower-
70s south of I-40.

Mejia

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Sunday)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025

Scattered to numerous showers and embedded thunderstorms will likely
be ongoing at the start of the long-term period Monday as a mid-
level shortwave trough continues to move across the region. PWATs
will increase to near or just above the 90th percentile, or between
1.5 and 2.0 inches through the daytime Monday. This would suggest an
increased threat of heavy rainfall that may lead to localized flash
flood concerns. Consensus in deterministic models suggest highest
totals will remain north of I-40 during the daytime Monday, with the
moisture/shortwave trough axis shifting south of I-40 Monday
evening/night. With some uncertainty still at hand and to be
considered, general widespread rainfall amounts between 1 and 2
inches, with local amounts of 3+ still seems reasonable through
Tuesday/Tuesday evening at this time. Again, these values are mostly
still below flash flood guidance, so a Flood Watch will not be
issued with this forecast package, but will be reevaluated later
this afternoon and this evening. A Flood Watch will certainly be
needed if trends in QPF trend higher than what they are currently.

Model guidance indicates a brief lull in precipitation Tuesday night
into Wednesday before another pair of shortwave troughs, embedded in
the northwest flow aloft, moves across the region. One shortwave is
forecast to move through Wednesday afternoon/evening and the other
late Wednesday night into Thursday night. Deterministic and ensemble
data have been fairly persistent producing another widespread,
multiple inch rainfall from the shortwave trough Wednesday night
into Thursday night. Exact details will continue to be sorted out in
future forecasts. Beyond Thursday, models begin to show differences
in solutions and forecast uncertainty increases. However, trends in
the overall pattern continue to suggest low-moderate (20-40%)
precipitation chances will persist into next weekend.

Temperatures: Confidence remains high that temperatures will be
unseasonably cool for late August through the long-term period. But
just how cool will be highly dependent on cloud cover and rainfall
that occurs through the upcoming workweek. In general, expect
daytime high temperatures in the 70s and 80s and nighttime lows in
the 50s and 60s.

Mejia

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 636 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025

VFR conditions will prevail thru much of tonight, but conditions
will trend downward as we head into Monday, especially across NE
OK and NW AR. An area of showers and possibly a few storms is
expected to sweep across the region from the early morning hours
on Monday and taper off during the afternoon. A cool and
saturating boundary layer will lead to the development of lower
cloud cigs across NE OK into far NW AR. Guidance varies to the
degree cigs come down, so will hedge in the middle and go
prevailing MVFR.

Lacy

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   66  71  61  78 /  50  80  60  30
FSM   71  80  65  78 /  20  60  70  40
MLC   70  84  64  77 /  20  50  60  50
BVO   61  70  56  80 /  50  80  40  10
FYV   63  74  58  78 /  20  70  70  30
BYV   62  73  59  79 /  10  70  50  20
MKO   67  73  63  77 /  40  70  70  40
MIO   63  71  57  81 /  30  70  30  10
F10   66  76  61  75 /  30  70  70  50
HHW   70  91  68  78 /   0  10  30  40

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...30
SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...30