721
FXUS64 KTSA 060535
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1235 AM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1231 AM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

 - Widespread showers and a few thunderstorms Saturday through
   Sunday. Heavy rain and localized flooding are the main
   concerns.

 - A few storms could become marginally severe mainly Sunday
   afternoon. Main hazards will be damaging wind gusts and large
   hail.

 - Hot and humid weather arrives next week, with heat headlines
   likely.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Saturday)
Issued at 1135 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

An upper low will lift north northeast across western Texas during
the day Saturday. This will result in showers and a few
thunderstorms overspreading the area from south to north the rest
of tonight into Saturday morning, with the activity possibly
tapering off from west to east by late Saturday afternoon. Locally
heavy rainfall will be possible, which may result in some
localized flooding concerns. With all the rain and clouds,
temperatures Saturday will only warm into the upper 70s to lower
80s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 1135 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

A brief respite from the widespread rainfall may occur Saturday
evening before another round of showers and a few thunderstorms
overspreads the area later Saturday night and Sunday. The upper
low will continue to lift north northeast into eastern Nebraska by
Sunday afternoon, and conditions may become slightly more
favorable for a couple strong to severe storms Sunday afternoon to
go along with the threat of locally heavy rainfall.

As the upper low continues to lift away from the area Sunday night
into Monday, the rain will taper off and end from west to east,
and the heat and humidity will begin to build as an upper ridge
builds over the southern plains during the first part of next
week. Afternoon highs in the 90s and dew points in the mid to
upper 70s will push afternoon heat index values to near or above
105 degrees in some places, with heat headlines likely to be
needed for much of next week.

A cold front may bring some relief from the heat by next weekend,
and possibly a few showers and storms as well.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1235 AM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

VFR conditions areawide at the beginning of the forecast will
trend downward overnight into Saturday morning, as low clouds,
rain and some storms move into the region from the south ahead of
a low pressure system. Numerous showers and storms are forecast
to spread across the region during the day on Saturday, keeping
flight conditions below VFR. CAM models suggest that we should see
a break by early evening, with cigs also returning to VFR.

Lacy

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   69  83  74  91 /  70  90  50  10
FSM   71  86  73  92 /  60  80  60  10
MLC   71  85  75  91 /  60  80  30   0
BVO   67  83  71  91 /  80  80  50  10
FYV   68  82  70  88 /  60  90  70  20
BYV   68  82  69  87 /  50  80  70  30
MKO   69  83  72  90 /  60  80  50  10
MIO   68  83  70  90 /  70  90  70  20
F10   68  84  73  90 /  60  90  30   0
HHW   71  84  73  90 /  70  70  30   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...30