709
FXUS64 KTSA 071410
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
910 AM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 903 AM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025

  - Cooler temperatures today and Wednesday following the passage of
    a cold front.

  - Unseasonably warm temperatures return late this week through the
    weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 903 AM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025

Cold front has pushed south of the Interstate 44 corridor and will
continue to make steady progress southeastward through the day.
Majority of post frontal precip will remain across southern KS
with only low chances extending into NE OK. Otherwise the front is
expected to pass through the local region dry outside if some
patchy drizzle with low stratus immediately north of the boundary.
Forecast is largely on track. Update will make minor adjustments
to sky cover and near term temp trends.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 1224 AM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025

A cold front will continue moving south across the area today, with
cooler temperatures following in its wake. A few showers and
thunderstorms will remain possible near the Kansas border this
morning, but most of the rain will remain to the north of the area.
Afternoon high temperatures will range from the lower 70s near the
Kansas border to the upper 80s near the Red River.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 1224 AM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025

After another relatively cooler day Wednesday, a warming trend
will take place Thursday through the weekend as an upper ridge
builds back over the area. Unseasonably warm temperatures and
increasing south winds will likely begin to raise fire weather
concerns some over the weekend as well.

The upper ridge shifts just east of the area by early next week,
which may allow some low precipitation chances to return to areas
near the Kansas border by that time. Temperatures will remain well
above normal into next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 609 AM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025

A shallow cold front is progressing south and east across the
region this morning, with IFR cigs filling into NE OK and
eventually the far NW AR sites this morning. Expect a trend
toward MVFR later today and eventually back to VFR tonight at some
point. Ahead of the front, valley and lake fog over far NW AR has
led to stints of LIFR cigs/vsbys, which could persist thru 14Z.
Confidence has decreased that low cigs will make it down to KMLC
or KFSM during the day today, though data is starting to point to
MVFR cigs spreading in tonight at those locations.

Lacy

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   76  57  78  59 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   86  64  81  57 /  10  10   0   0
MLC   84  60  82  57 /  10  10   0   0
BVO   72  52  76  53 /  10   0   0   0
FYV   80  55  77  50 /  10  10   0   0
BYV   78  56  74  51 /  10   0   0   0
MKO   81  60  80  59 /  10   0   0   0
MIO   75  54  77  55 /  20   0   0   0
F10   81  58  80  58 /  10   0   0   0
HHW   87  64  82  60 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...30