168
FXUS64 KTSA 122314
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
614 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 605 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

 - Shower and thunderstorm chances will continue the next several days.
   Saturday night is expected to have the greatest potential for
   excessive rainfall and severe weather.

-  After the several rounds of rain and storms, the flood threat near
   creeks and streams will increase, especially Saturday into
   Sunday.

- Overall drier weather is expected much of next week. Initially
  below normal temperatures will climb above normal by the end of
  the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 1131 AM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

A cold front pushed through this morning with extensive shower and
thunderstorm activity for much of the area. This activity is now
diminishing, with the front flipping direction and moving back north
as a warm front. Deep moisture and instability will spread back
north into the afternoon. With modest wind shear in place and
somewhat long hodographs, the atmosphere will support the
potential for thunderstorms, and even severe thunderstorms.
However, lift will be modest and localized near the warm front.
Most CAMs are showing relatively little activity, but there is
some signal so it bears watchings. If storms were to develop, it
appears northeast Oklahoma would be the favored location, and
timing would suggest late afternoon or early evening. High
temperatures today will be in the mid to upper 80s.

Overnight tonight, a decaying MCS will move in from the
northwest. Most CAM guidance breaks this system apart as it
approaches, and that is the most likely outcome, but maintained
some pops in case it can hold together a little longer than
expected. The most likely area to see showers and storms overnight
is the northern third of the forecast area. Lows will remain
mild, in the low to mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Friday)
Issued at 1131 AM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Any lingering showers and storms should wrap up by midday Saturday.
With humid southerly flow in place, temperatures will rise to the
low to mid 90s and dew points into the mid to upper 70s. The Heat
Index will reach the low 100s, with the potential for a Heat
Advisory for portions of the area. An upper level shortwave trough
and associated surface front will move through Saturday night
into Sunday morning. Like we`ve seen the last few days, this front
will push into a very moist and unstable airmass. The expectation
is that another round of widespread heavy rain will occur along
with at least some isolated severe weather potential. Elected to
issue a Flood Watch for a portion of the area that overlaps the
recent heavy rain footprint and the corridor where model guidance
points to additional heavy rain.

Cooler and drier weather will ensue by Monday as the front slides
south and out of the area, and northwest flow keeps the heat
south. Upper level ridging will at least briefly rebuild late in
the week, allowing for warmer and more humid weather to return.
But into late week and next weekend, ensemble guidance suggests
rain chances will resume.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 605 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Main concerns this TAF cycle is impacts from convection moving
out of the High Plains overnight. Extended Prob30 to KTUL and
KRVS with latest guidance suggesting activity will develop further
south than earlier expected. Later forecast may need to consider
extending activity into northwest AR terminals if trends continue. Scattered
low clouds also likely to redevelop overnight across southeast OK
into western AR. Coverage and height remain low confidence so
kept broken VFR conditions from earlier forecast. Gusty south
winds will be common Saturday afternoon with VFR conditions
forecast through the remainder of the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   75  91  69  76 /  30  20 100  40
FSM   75  92  74  82 /  20  10  90  50
MLC   76  91  73  80 /  10   0  90  60
BVO   72  91  66  76 /  30  30 100  10
FYV   73  87  69  77 /  30  30 100  40
BYV   70  86  67  75 /  30  50 100  30
MKO   73  89  70  78 /  20  10 100  50
MIO   71  88  66  76 /  40  50  90  10
F10   73  90  69  76 /  20  10  90  60
HHW   75  91  75  83 /  10   0  50  80

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday afternoon for
     OKZ056>058-062-063-068-069.

AR...Flood Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday afternoon for
     ARZ001-010.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...24