116
FXUS64 KTSA 190514
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1214 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1209 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025

 - Dangerous heat persists through Tuesday for much of eastern
Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.

 - Isolated shower and storm potential Tuesday morning, then
expanding across much of the region Tuesday afternoon and evening.
Gusty to locally strong wind and brief heavy rain threats exist.

 - A cold front moves into/through the region Tuesday night and
Wednesday. Additional shower and storm chances remain as the
boundary moves through. This cold front will provide some relief
from the heat for the second half of the week into the weekend.

- Another cold front forecast late weekend into next week with
continued cooler than seasonal average temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1209 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025

Outflow boundaries leftover from convection across Kansas and
western Oklahoma Monday evening/night could approach eastern
Oklahoma early Tuesday morning. These boundaries combined with the
southern portion of a mid level shortwave moving east southeast
through the Midwest will create a slight chance of showers/storms
across a portion of northeast Oklahoma through Tuesday morning.
Though the greater potential at this time looks to be west/northwest
of the CWA, where Monday overnight convection was located.

During the day Tuesday, the dome of high pressure is expected to
become more amplified from north to south across the central U.S.
behind the shortwave moving through Monday night/Tuesday morning.
This will allow for eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas to be
more on the eastern periphery of the high pressure ridge. Still
under the influence of the ridge though, hot and humid conditions
are forecast once again for the CWA. Max heating and instability
over the region will aid in the additional development of shower
and storm chances across much of the CWA, with the greater
potentials within the terrain of northwest Arkansas and also near
the Kansas border with any storms rotating around the top of the
upper level ridge. Strong low level lapse rates and weak shear
aloft will create the threat for gusty to locally strong winds and
also a heavy rain threat into the evening hours Tuesday.

Even with the scattered cloud cover from potential afternoon
convection, afternoon high temperatures in the mid 90s to around 100
degrees remain forecast.  These conditions will create heat index
values again climbing into the 100 to 109 deg range.  Have added
Benton and Carroll cos to the current Heat Advisory.  Latest
indications lean toward these counties getting close to advisory
criteria before any afternoon convection develops and depending on
the amount of cloud cover.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 1209 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025

The ridge is progged to be oriented from the Desert Southwest into
the Northern Plains Tuesday evening/night, which will allow for a
trailing cool front associated with the mid level shortwave moving
through Tuesday morning to push into eastern Oklahoma and northwest
Arkansas. Additional shower/storm chances will remain forecast into
Wednesday as the boundary slides through the region. Much of this
precip should taper off and exit Wednesday night as surface high
pressure filters into the region behind the boundary. Also behind
the boundary, a break in the hot/humid conditions is forecast with
slightly cooler temperatures Wednesday afternoon and again Thursday.

Friday the ridge is progged to be centered more over the Desert
Southwest in response to a more defined area of low pressure
dropping out of Canada into the Northern Plains and Great Lakes
region. A longwave trof axis associated with the low pressure system
is forecast to drop south/southeast across the Plains over the
weekend allowing for a second frontal boundary to move through the
CWA late weekend. Behind the boundary, upper level northwesterly
flow and cooler conditions with high temps in the 80s are currently
forecast for the first part of next week. With the boundary and the
trof axis moving through the region, shower/storm chances look to
return for the beginning of next week as well.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1209 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025

Quiet weather overnight with scattered storms possible across NE
OK toward sunrise through mid morning. The expectation remains for
scattered storms to develop by during the afternoon and persist
through mid to late evening. A broad window in time for
thunderstorm mention will be maintained at all terminals. VFR
conditions will persist outside of thunderstorm influences.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   98  76  94  72 /  20  40  10   0
FSM  102  76  97  73 /  20  30  20  10
MLC  100  74  94  71 /  20  30  20  10
BVO   97  70  93  68 /  20  40  10   0
FYV   98  71  93  68 /  30  40  20  10
BYV   98  71  93  68 /  30  40  20  10
MKO   99  73  94  71 /  20  30  20  10
MIO   97  71  93  68 /  30  40  10   0
F10   99  73  94  70 /  20  30  20  10
HHW   99  75  95  72 /  20  20  30  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
     OKZ049-053>068-070>076.

AR...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
     ARZ001-002-019-020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...07