339
FXUS64 KTSA 021700
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1200 PM CDT Wed Sep 2 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1200 PM CDT Wed Sep 2 2026

 - An extended period of hot and dry weather will persist through
   the week. Heat headlines will be needed at times.

 - Rain chances look very low through the forecast period, though
   a slight chance of showers exists across far southeast
   Oklahoma late Wednesday into Thursday.

 - The ongoing drought situation will continue to worsen.
   Localized fire weather concerns will develop each day.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight)
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Wed Sep 2 2026

Another hot and primarily dry day is in store across the region as
deep layer ridging hold firm over much of the southern states. An
uptick in low level moisture will be noted this afternoon as the
remnant of Tropical Storm Edouard slowly drift northward across
east Texas. The result will likely be high temperatures a degree
or two cooler than previous days, though heat index values will
trend near or slightly higher. Therefore, a more expansive Heat
Advisory remains in effect for this afternoon across eastern
Oklahoma into west central Arkansas. Rain chances remain very low,
though a shower or two could slip into far southeast Oklahoma as
Edouard continues north through the afternoon. As this happens,
some stronger wind gusts will also be noted across the area this
afternoon as the pressure gradient tightens in response to the
tropical low. Therefore, an uptick in fire concerns will occur
this afternoon as vegetation continues to grow increasingly
stressed due to the ongoing drought conditions.

Bowlan

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Wednesday)
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Wed Sep 2 2026

A few showers or thunderstorms will be possible during the day
Thursday across far southeast Oklahoma as Edouard more or less
dissipates over northern Texas. Meaningful rain amounts are not
expected, but at least a brief reprieve from the excessive heat
is possible for locations south of I-40 as cloud cover becomes
more expansive Thursday. Better chances for excessive heat look
to continue generally north of I-40 as higher cloud cover remains
across the south. Therefore, will issue another Heat Advisory for
Thursday afternoon across the north and into the Arkansas River
Valley. Beyond Thursday, persistence will be the theme of the
forecast through the extended periods. Excessive heat will likely
be the main impact through the upcoming holiday weekend with more
heat headlines possible through the period. Isolated afternoon
shower or storm chances will become possible within the terrain
areas through the weekend, owing to an uptick in moisture
streaming northward from the tropics over far eastern Oklahoma and
western Arkansas. Upper ridging expands back over the Southern
Plains into early next week, with hot and dry trends continuing
for the foreseeable future. The ongoing drought conditions look to
worsen through the period, with occasionally gusty winds
worsening fire weather conditions at times.

Bowlan

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1141 AM CDT Wed Sep 2 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Modest gustiness
to the winds at generally less than 20 kts at a few of the NE OK
and far NW AR terminals will drop off with sunset.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL  100  77  98  77 /   0   0  10   0
FSM  102  76 101  76 /   0   0  10   0
MLC  100  74  96  75 /   0   0  10   0
BVO  100  74  99  72 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   99  72  98  73 /   0   0  10   0
BYV   97  74  97  74 /   0   0  10   0
MKO   99  73  97  73 /   0   0  10   0
MIO   99  75  98  75 /   0   0  10   0
F10   99  72  96  73 /   0   0  10   0
HHW   97  73  93  73 /   0  10  20  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ049-053-055>062-
     064>067-070-071-073>075-154-176-254-272-276-354-376.

     Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM CDT Thursday for OKZ055>058-
     060>062-066-067-070-071-074-176-254-272-276-354.

AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ129-219-220-229.

     Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM CDT Thursday for ARZ129-219-220-
     229.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...22