995
FXUS64 KTSA 021651
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1151 AM CDT Sat May 2 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1149 AM CDT Sat May 2 2026

 - Temperatures below normal through Saturday then a warming trend.

 - Thunderstorm chances return for the first part of the work
   week. Some severe weather potential may exist with details to
   be refined in later forecasts.

 - Below normal temperatures return mid-week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 1149 AM CDT Sat May 2 2026

Compact mid level wave continues to dive southeast across the area,
which resulted in a few showers earlier this morning. Most recent
model guidance offers little evidence of additional development
through today, with mostly sunny skies and slightly below normal
temperatues. Clear and cool conditions can be expected tonight.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Saturday)
Issued at 1149 AM CDT Sat May 2 2026

Surface ridge shifts southeast resulting in a return to S-SW winds
Sunday with notably warmer daytime temperatures. Southerly low level
flow continues and increases Monday with attendant low level
moisture increase. Warm/moist advection pattern may result in a few
thunderstorms Monday night associated with strengthening low level
jet, primarily focused on NW AR and far NE OK.

Cold front pushing through northeast OK early Tuesday forecast to be
located somewhere from northwest AR back into southeast OK.
Stronger deep layer winds overspreading unstable airmass will result
in storm development along the front Tuesday afternoon and evening,
though coverage and intensity remain somewhat in question at this
time. Some increase in coverage is possible as southwest upper
trough moves into the plains with the front continuing to push
southeast. Severe weather potential remains uncertain.

Much cooler conditions return mid week behind the front, followed by
a quick warmup to end next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1149 AM CDT Sat May 2 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Northerly winds
today will become light tonight and shift to the south to southwest
at all sites mid to late morning tomorrow. Some gustiness should be
expected during the latter couple of hours of the period at all
sites except FSM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   70  48  84  61 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   72  45  81  58 /  10   0   0   0
MLC   72  49  82  59 /  20   0   0   0
BVO   70  43  83  57 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   68  42  78  56 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   65  41  76  59 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   70  45  80  59 /  10   0   0   0
MIO   66  43  79  59 /   0   0   0   0
F10   71  48  81  59 /  20   0   0   0
HHW   72  48  79  56 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...22