351
FXUS64 KTSA 212318
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
618 PM CDT Thu Aug 21 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1244 PM CDT Thu Aug 21 2025

 - Near average temperatures and mostly dry conditions through the
   upcoming weekend.

 - Medium rain chances (30-60%) enter the forecast early next
   week, along with well below normal temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight)
Issued at 1244 PM CDT Thu Aug 21 2025

Summertime heat wont be quite as intense today as it has been in
days past. Light northerly surface winds and modest diurnal mixing
will keep dewpoints generally in the mid-upper 60s to lower-70s
through sunset this evening. These dewpoint temperatures should keep
apparent temperatures near or below 100 deg this afternoon. Despite
the slightly drier airmass, a few isolated showers and thunderstorms
will remain possible (20%) across far southeast OK through the
remainder of the afternoon. A very low chance (10%) of a shower or
storm is also possible in the higher terrain of western AR as well.
Brief heavy rainfall and non-severe gusty winds may accompany any
storms that develop this afternoon. Rain chances diminish by or just
after sunset this evening.

Another tranquil, near-seasonal mid-August evening is expected
tonight with overnight lows in the upper 60s to near 70 deg for most
locations. Portions of far northwest AR and far northeast OK may dip
into the mid-60s. Some patchy fog may develop across far northwest
AR late tonight/early Friday morning, though confidence and coverage
are too low to add into the grids at this time. Otherwise, no
weather impacts expected.

Mejia

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Thursday)
Issued at 1244 PM CDT Thu Aug 21 2025

Mid/upper level ridging will remain centered over the Great
Basin/Four Corners region through the upcoming weekend. West-to-east
oriented ridge axis will shift overhead by Friday afternoon/evening,
likely maintaining mostly dry and seasonally warm weather into
Saturday. A modest to strong cold front remains on track to move
southward into the forecast area Saturday afternoon/evening. A few
isolated showers and thunderstorms may develop along the frontal
boundary. Added some low PoPs (10-20%) across parts of northeast OK
and far northwest AR mid-late Saturday afternoon, with low chances
lingering into the early evening. North to northeast winds will kick
up and become gusty behind the frontal boundary. Model guidance
suggests the cooler/drier air will lag behind Saturdays cold front,
with seasonably warm temperatures continuing on Sunday before cooler
temperatures arrive Sunday night into Monday.

A strong trough centered over the Great Lakes will dig southward
over the central/eastern US late this weekend and early next week.
In response, modest northwest flow will develop aloft and much
cooler surface temperatures will advect into the region by Monday.
Exact details are still being straightened out by deterministic and
ensemble model data, but the much cooler and a much wetter pattern
looks likely for much, if not all, of next week. Both daytime highs
and nighttime lows will be several degrees below average.
Precipitation chances are expected to increase, as well. Will need
to monitor weak mid-level shortwave perturbations rolling off the
Rockies, which may result in a series of storm complexes/MCSs that
may affect the area through the week. Due to continued uncertainty
at this time, will maintain NBM PoPs through the long-term period,
keeping widespread moderate (30-60%) shower/storm chances each day
Monday-Thursday.

Mejia

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 618 PM CDT Thu Aug 21 2025

Mostly VFR conditions expected through the period outside of some
fog potential for NW AR terminals early tomorrow morning. Otherwise,
the few cumulus will dissipate this evening leaving clear skies and
light winds over the area. Winds will remain light tomorrow,
primarily out of the northeast but could be variable at times. Few
afternoon cu again expected tomorrow as well.

Bowlan

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   70  93  69  93 /   0   0   0  20
FSM   73  95  72  98 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   69  93  68  95 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   63  92  63  92 /   0   0   0  20
FYV   65  91  63  93 /   0   0   0  10
BYV   65  90  64  92 /   0   0   0  20
MKO   70  92  67  93 /   0   0   0  10
MIO   65  91  64  91 /   0   0   0  20
F10   68  92  66  93 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   70  91  70  94 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...04