531
FXUS64 KTSA 191053
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
553 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 552 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

 - Isolated showers and storms may develop Sunday afternoon. Any stronger
   storms will be capable of locally gusty winds and heavy
   downpours.

 - Hot and mostly dry conditions will develop each day through the remainder
   of the forecast period.

 - Heat indices will reach 95-105F Sunday, and 105-112 F for
   many areas Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Sunday)
Issued at 1109 PM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026

An isolated shower or storm remains possible overnight, especially
for northern areas, but overall it should remain dry. Winds will
be light, with lows in the low to mid 70s once again.

Upper level ridging will build in more earnestly Sunday, with
warming conditions expected. Afternoon highs will climb into the
mid to upper 90s. With plentiful low level moisture remaining in
place, afternoon heat indices will increase relative to the last
few days. Heat indices will range from around 98-106 F, warmest in
northeast OK and west-central AR. A Heat Advisory was issued for
much of northeast OK and west-central AR.

Like the last few days, a few afternoon showers and storms will be
possible. But given reduced instability from increasing temperatures
and subsidence in the mid levels of the atmosphere, the overall
coverage and intensity of any storms should be reduced. Storm
chances look to focus across the higher terrain of northwest
Arkansas.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 1109 PM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026

An oppressive area of high pressure will continue to strengthen and
expand into Monday and Tuesday. Upper 90s to low 100s can be
expected on these days, with Tuesday being the warmer day.
Overnight lows also look unusually warm, with upper 70s to around
80 F. With continued abundant low level moisture, heat indices
will rise to 100-112F on these days, with locally higher values.
Heat headlines for these days are expected.

Models are in better agreement compared to yesterday that a weak
and shallow cold front will move through late Tuesday into
Wednesday. This front will have only a marginal impact on
temperatures, with highs about 2-4 F cooler in the north, and 1-2
F cooler in the south for Wednesday. No rain is expected with the
front.

For the second half of the week, ensembles are in good agreement
that the upper level high will shift slightly to the west. In terms
of temperature, this suggests that hot weather will continue, with
highs remaining in the upper 90s to low 100s into the weekend. Heat
headlines may continue through this period for at least parts of the
area. The slight shift in the high pressure center will open the
door to the potential for some glancing storm chances, particularly
for northwest AR, with daily pops of 10-30% for the late week
period. For the rest of the area, rainfall is not anticipated at
this time.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 552 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

VFR conditions will continue for the entire forecast period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   96  79 100  80 /  10  10   0   0
FSM   97  77  99  77 /  10   0   0   0
MLC   95  77  97  76 /  10  10   0   0
BVO   95  76  99  77 /  10   0   0   0
FYV   93  75  95  76 /  20  10  10   0
BYV   94  74  95  76 /  20  10  20   0
MKO   94  76  97  78 /  10   0   0   0
MIO   94  76  97  77 /  10  10  10   0
F10   93  75  97  75 /  10   0   0   0
HHW   93  75  95  76 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening
     for OKZ055>058-060>062-064>067-070-071-074-176-254-272-354.

AR...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening
     for ARZ129-220.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...05