706
FXUS64 KTSA 231732
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1132 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 337 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2025

  - Significant warming trend continues today and Monday; above normal
    temperatures expected all week.

  - Weak cold front on Wednesday with a chance for a few sprinkles
    and slightly cooler temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of today )
Issued at 1014 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2025

A mid/upper level shortwave, currently centered over northeast
Texas, will continue to move eastward through the region and exit
mid to late this afternoon. As this wave moves through, some
passing high clouds are expected to move across the CWA, with a
higher concentration closer to the low center near the Red River.
Any associated precip to the wave should remain south of the Red
River.

Temperatures as of mid morning were above freezing across the
majority of the CWA and were again running on average about 5 to
15 deg warmer compared to this time yesterday. South to
southwesterly winds today will continue to aid in warmer
temperatures this afternoon with forecast highs in the 50s to
lower 60s over the CWA. Current forecast represents this fairly
well. Thus, for the morning update, have added only minor
adjustments to the hourly temp/dewpoint trends to account for the
rate of warming and latest observations.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 337 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2025

The warming trend will continue Monday, with afternoon
temperatures warming into the mid 60s to lower 70s. Similar to
slightly warmer conditions are expected Tuesday ahead of a weak
cold front that will sweep across the area Wednesday. A few
sprinkles may accompany the frontal passage, but measurable rain
chances remain very low. Temperatures will cool slightly Wednesday
and Thursday, but will remain above normal. Temperatures will
rebound into the 65 to 70 degree range Friday and Saturday ahead
of the next storm system that looks to affect the area at the tail
end of next weekend. This system will bring our next good chance
of showers and possibly a few thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1132 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2025

Passing high clouds along with variable to southwesterly winds
are forecast for the TAF period over the CWA. Some short term
guidance indicates a low potential for areas of reduced visibility
late tonight into early Monday morning. For now will hold off on
mentioning in the TAF and re-evaluate with next TAF issuance.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   61  36  70  39 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   60  33  68  40 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   62  35  70  41 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   61  30  70  35 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   59  32  67  38 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   57  35  64  40 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   60  34  69  39 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   57  34  65  36 /   0   0   0   0
F10   62  35  70  39 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   60  33  69  39 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...20