284
FXUS64 KTSA 221708
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
Issued by National Weather Service Norman OK
1208 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1205 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025

  - River flooding will continue for at least the next few days.

  - Warm and dry Tuesday, but unsettled weather resumes Wednesday
    and continues through the weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1034 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025

The current short term forecast is in good shape with no
additional updates needed for this morning. CAMs continue to keep
any storms to the west of this area for this evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 253 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025

Southerly winds become breezy today across eastern Oklahoma and
northwest Arkansas with the region between exiting surface high
pressure and surface low pressure in southeast Colorado. These
winds will aid in afternoon temperatures warming into the upper
70s and lower 80s over the CWA while scattered high clouds spread
eastward within the upper level near zonal flow.

From the surface low out west, a dryline is expected to develop
from the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles into eastern New Mexico this
afternoon. Latest short-term guidance continues to indicate the
potential for convection initiating along this boundary and making
a run toward eastern Oklahoma this evening. However, the farther
east the convection moves off the boundary, weakening instability
and less of a low level jet influence should for the most part
weaken storms before they reach the CWA. At this time, will keep
PoPs just below mentionable criteria across western Osage/Pawnee
counties. If any convection could reach the CWA, an isolated
severe potential exists.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 253 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025

A vort max associated with convection from the dryline this
afternoon is progged to move eastward across northern
Texas/southern Oklahoma tonight into Wednesday. Additional shower
and storm development with the vort max could spread into
southeast Oklahoma during the day Wednesday. At the same time, a
weak mid/upper level shortwave is forecast to move through the
region, which could initiate storm chances farther north across
the rest of eastern Oklahoma Wednesday afternoon and northwest
Arkansas Wednesday evening. Isolated severe potentials develop
mainly during the afternoon/early evening hours and then dissipate
with the loss of daytime heating.

Low level moisture vectors become more in-line with moisture
lifting into the CWA Thursday ahead of another weak mid/upper
level shortwave moving through the region. With the better
moisture in place Thursday into Friday, rain chances become more
likely along with continued scattered thunderstorm potential
across the CWA. Locally heavy rainfall potential also exists
before the wave exits Friday. Weak forcing each day through the
end of the week should help to limit overall severe potentials.
However, isolated/limited severe potentials return Thursday into
Friday with the better moisture return.

Looking into the extended forecast, shower and thunderstorm
chances remain for the upcoming weekend with another weak wave
looking to move across the southern/central Plains. A more defined
area of low pressure is progged to move out into the Plains early
next week with a frontal boundary pushing into the region. Thus,
thunderstorm chances continue into next week as well. Details with
the low pressure system next week remain uncertain as latest model
runs have shifted the track of the low more into the northern
Plains.

Lastly, temperatures Wednesday through the weekend are forecast to
be near to slightly above the seasonal average, with the coolest
day of the forecast period being Thursday with highs in the 70s
due to the increased rain chances.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1205 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. Mostly sunny
skies with a southerly wind will continue through sunset today.
Gusts will mostly remain below 20 kts. Winds will become light
overnight. South to southeast winds resumes Wednesday. Ceilings
will begin to develop and lower midday, but will remain at or
above 12 kft. No rain is expected, but a very isolated shower
can`t totally be ruled out either across eastern Oklahoma late
morning Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   59  81  63  76 /   0  30  50  70
FSM   58  83  64  79 /   0  20  20  50
MLC   61  81  64  77 /   0  30  30  60
BVO   55  79  61  76 /  10  30  50  70
FYV   55  80  61  77 /   0  10  20  60
BYV   54  80  60  76 /   0  10  10  50
MKO   58  80  63  74 /   0  20  40  60
MIO   56  78  61  74 /   0  20  30  70
F10   59  80  63  74 /   0  30  40  70
HHW   62  79  64  75 /  10  40  30  60

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...06