102
FXUS64 KTSA 262319
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
519 PM CST Tue Nov 26 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight)
Issued at 104 PM CST Tue Nov 26 2024

The surface ridge centered over the mid-Mississippi Valley will
continue to slide east away from the area, meaning a return to
southerly winds this afternoon and tonight. Overnight lows will be
considerably milder, relatively speaking, than last night`s hard
freeze in many locations.

Lacy

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Tuesday)
Issued at 104 PM CST Tue Nov 26 2024

An upper low centered near the OR/CA border is transitioning into
an open wave that will march east across the country over the
next few days. The system will slide across the central CONUS
Wednesday and Wednesday night. As this occurs, a cold front will
slide southeast across the region during the day, making for a
sharp gradient in high temps across the forecast area from north
to south. Increasing QG and H85-H7 frontogenetic forcing will
produce a west to east band of precipitation across KS and MO,
mainly late Wednesday afternoon and evening, with areas near the
KS/MO borders on the southern fringe. Will maintain low PoPs for
light rain or sprinkles as the system moves across. The forcing
shifts southeast by Thursday morning, though gradually weakening
as well. Will keep mention of sprinkles into Thanksgiving morning
in the east and south.

The upper pattern will amplify in the wake of this wave by the
weekend, with deep cyclonic flow over the eastern 2/3rds of the
country. As a result, Arctic air will spill down into the north
central part of the country. There is just enough westerly flow
over the Rockies to keep the brunt of this cold air to the north
and east of the region. Nevertheless, a reinforcing push of cold
air will arrive by Sunday as a wave in the NW flow aloft over the
Plains slides by to our north and east. This wave is expected to
bring a band of light wintry precip mainly Saturday across KS and
MO which could bring some travel issues for anyone returning to
the area from the holiday.

An amplified positive PNA pattern is expected to persist into next
week, meaning the temp roller coaster will continue. After a
likely warming trend to start next week, the next front is poised
to drop south down the Plains by mid to late week. The forecast is
looking dry for now.

Lacy

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 519 PM CST Tue Nov 26 2024

Southerly winds will continue overnight ahead of a cold front that will
move into far northeast Oklahoma by early afternoon. Low level wind
shear overnight appears somewhat marginal and therefore did not include
at this time.  Some potential for MVFR ceilings to develop at NW AR
TAF sites by late afternoon as frontal boundary approaches. Otherwise,
VFR conditions are expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   43  58  32  46 /   0   0   0  10
FSM   41  65  41  51 /   0   0  10  10
MLC   45  68  37  50 /   0   0  10  10
BVO   36  55  29  45 /   0  10   0   0
FYV   39  59  31  46 /   0  10  10  10
BYV   39  58  33  44 /   0  10  20  10
MKO   42  63  35  46 /   0  10  10  10
MIO   38  55  30  43 /   0  20  10  10
F10   42  64  34  47 /   0   0  10  10
HHW   44  72  41  51 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...12