074
FXUS64 KTSA 102332
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
532 PM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1148 AM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

 - Cool temperatures continue through Tuesday morning. Then much above
   normal temperatures return through late week.

 - Dry weather will persist until Saturday, with breezy conditions Tuesday
   and again Thursday through Saturday.

 - Shower and thunderstorm chances next weekend, with a low chance for
   strong to severe storms.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 1148 AM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

Clear and cool conditions persist for the remainder of the afternoon
with highs in the 40s, coolest in northwest Arkansas. The pressure
gradient will become southerly overnight with light south wind
developing in some areas. Temperatures will not be quite as cold as
last night, ranging from the low 30s in eastern OK to the mid 20s in
northwest Arkansas. No freeze products are in effect because we
already had a widespread hard freeze this morning.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Monday)
Issued at 1148 AM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

A fairly strong southerly pressure gradient will be in place Tuesday
morning, with south winds gusting to 20-35 mph during the day.
Warm air will come racing back north, with highs into the 60s to
near 70 F across the area. A weak boundary Wednesday slows down
the warming trend (and southerly winds), but no rain will occur.
Strong southerly flow then resumes Thursday into Saturday.
Temperatures will be warmest Friday, with widespread 70s to low
80s for highs, and overnight lows in the 50s to low 60s.

Ensemble guidance has come into somewhat better agreement over the
last 24 hours for the system this weekend. It appears a strong
west coast trough will pinch off into a closed low across the
southwest US, which will then track ENE across the forecast area
Sunday and Monday. Guidance does not look as favorable for severe
weather this weekend as was shown yesterday. Many models
develop some lighter precipitation along the frontal boundary
before the best dynamics can arrive with the now slower track of
the upper level low. In that case, areas of thunderstorms would
still develop Sunday but with a lower ceiling of potential. If
this trend holds, PoPs would need to be lowered Saturday and
raised Sunday, but didn`t want to deviate too much from NBM just
yet given this a recent model adjustment. Temperatures would drop
to near seasonal averages Monday and beyond (behind the front)
with any precipitation gradually winding down.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 532 PM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

Scattered to broken high clouds continue overnight tonight while
surface high pressure makes its way southeast of the CWA. In the
wake of the exiting surface high, gusty southerly low level flow
quickly spreads over the region with strong low level wind shear
late tonight into Tuesday morning. At the surface, south to
southwesterly winds gusting 20-28KT are forecast to spread west to
east early Tuesday morning and remain common through Tuesday
afternoon. Scattered high clouds are also forecast Tuesday. VFR
conditions should persist through the TAF period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   33  70  40  71 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   29  66  43  72 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   33  69  44  74 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   28  69  35  70 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   26  61  39  70 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   25  60  42  68 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   30  66  42  71 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   28  64  39  69 /   0   0   0   0
F10   32  68  42  72 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   31  66  46  72 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...20