862
FXUS64 KTSA 201112
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
612 AM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1238 AM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025

 - A Heat Advisory is in effect for much of the area on Sunday.

 - An extended heat wave is underway, and expected to persist
   through the upcoming week. Additional heat headlines are
   likely.

 - The forecast is mostly dry, but some low afternoon storm
   chances will be introduced mainly in the terrain of W AR and
   SE OK by next weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 1238 AM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025

Evening upper air analysis indicates east-west elongated mid to
upper level ridging centered over OK and AR. Lee side low pressure
over the High Plains at the surface is maintaining a southerly
breeze over the region tonight, and expect another day of gusty
south to southwest winds on Sunday. Made some slight adjustments
to raise the winds over the model blend (NBM). The current NBM
looks reasonable for dewpoints and forecast highs during the day
Sunday. Based on this, the going Heat Advisory will be kept as is.

Lacy

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 1238 AM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025

Ridging aloft is expected to maintain hot and dry weather for
this upcoming week. An extended heat wave is underway, after we
managed to put this weather off past mid-July because of all the
rain we`ve had this year. Additional heat headlines will likely be
needed Monday for many of the same areas. There are some
indications that dewpoints may drop off some toward midweek, which
would bring heat indices down a touch, but this may be brief,
with heat indices expected to climb again toward the end of the
week.

Some weakening of ridging aloft is indicated in the most likely
scenarios in ensemble cluster data by next weekend. Deep layer
moisture is expected to increase from the southeast and could be
enough to warrant isolated mainly terrain-induced showers and
storms over W AR and SE OK by next weekend. The latest NBM has
introduced PoPs beginning next Sunday, though indications in the
ensemble data suggest this could occur as soon as next Friday
afternoon.

Lacy

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 612 AM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025

A mix of mid and high clouds are forecast across the CWA today,
with mainly high clouds passing through tonight. Also today,
south to southwesterly winds become breezy with gusts of 15 to
25KT. These winds should subside this evening, though remaining
southerly for most TAF sites. The exception again will be KFSM
where a more easterly direction is forecast overnight. Stronger
winds aloft are also forecast tonight and will carry low level
wind shear for northeast Oklahoma TAF sites as well as KFSM. VFR
conditions should prevail through the TAF period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   97  78  97  78 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   97  77  98  76 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   96  77  96  75 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   97  74  97  74 /   0  10   0   0
FYV   94  73  94  73 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   95  74  96  74 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   95  76  95  75 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   95  76  95  76 /   0  10   0   0
F10   95  76  95  75 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   94  75  94  73 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
     OKZ049-053>076.

AR...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
     ARZ019-020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...20