247
FXUS64 KTSA 160518
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1218 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1218 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025

 - Above average temperatures continue today and Wednesday with
   low to medium /10-40 percent/ shower/storm chances each
   afternoon.

-  Weak frontal boundary moves in late Wednesday through the end
   of the week bringing increasing rain chances and slightly
   cooler temperatures

 - At least low shower and storm chances linger into the weekend
   as various disturbances move nearby the local region.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 1218 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025

Isolated showers or storms may continue to fester through the
morning hours, otherwise expect a similar pattern of increasing
storm coverage during the afternoon before diminishing around
sunset. Locally gusty winds will be the primary concern with any
stronger storms. Temps also remain similar to recent days.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 1218 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025

The pattern aloft begins to transition somewhat on Wednesday as the
upper low currently over the NW CONUS begins to slowly move nearer
the Plains and ridging aloft weakens downstream. An initial weak
cold front and increasing precip chances move into NE OK on
Wednesday though warm and humid conditions will continue for most
locations.

More widespread convection is expected to spread into the region
Wednesday night through Thursday night as the influence of the
steadily upper low increases across the region. The composite
outflow boundary and/or weak cold front will move into the region on
Thursday while gradually losing definition by Friday.
Increasing cloud cover and higher precip coverage will help keep
temps cooler though a true change in airmass is not expected.

The pattern is likely to remain somewhat unsettled through next
weekend as upper ridging remains suppressed to the southwest CONUS
and plentiful moisture remains in place through the Plains. Temps
are likely to be around seasonal normals into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1218 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025

Immediate aviation issue is the potential for reduced visibilities
at mainly FYV and likely at BVO. FYV is already seeing MVFR
visibilities with most guidance suggesting potential for periods
of IFR toward sunrise. Will indicate MVFR prevailing with TEMPO
for the IFR conditions to start the TAF, improving within an hour
or two after sunrise. At BVO, guidance is less bullish on
visibility reductions here, but observational trends in the last
couple of hours and given what has happened in the last several
nights, confidence is increased in a period of MVFR visibilities
around sunrise here as well. This potential will be covered with a
TEMPO group. Attention then turns to the potential for convective
impacts. First off, there should be thunderstorm development on
the western fringes of the forecast area around sunrise that
likely remains west of BVO/TUL/RVS. The better chance for
thunderstorms remains this afternoon in W AR, with the previous
PROB30 groups maintained this TAF cycle. A lesser but still
nonzero chance of the E OK sites being impacted this afternoon
exists but will not be mentioned in these TAFs.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   91  69  91  69 /  20  10  30  30
FSM   95  71  94  70 /  30  10  20  20
MLC   93  67  92  68 /  20   0  20  20
BVO   91  65  90  65 /  20  10  30  40
FYV   91  64  90  65 /  30  10  20  20
BYV   89  66  90  64 /  30  10  20  10
MKO   92  68  92  68 /  20  10  20  20
MIO   90  66  90  66 /  30  10  20  30
F10   91  67  91  66 /  20   0  30  30
HHW   91  68  90  68 /  20  10  20  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...22