700
FXUS64 KTSA 040656
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
156 AM CDT Wed Jun 4 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 151 AM CDT Wed Jun 4 2025

  - Much cooler weather today. A few lingering showers and
    isolated thunderstorms will persist, especially in northwest
    Arkansas.

  - More rounds of storms and heavy rainfall are expected
    beginning Thursday night and continuing into the weekend.

  - The repeated rounds of rainfall will lead to an increasing
    flash and mainstem river flooding threat late week on into
    the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 151 AM CDT Wed Jun 4 2025

The surface cold front now extends from southeast OK up into northwest
Arkansas. It will generally remain near this location through the
day today. Showers and thunderstorms will continue near the
boundary today, with a bit of an uptick during the late morning
or early afternoon, but then diminishing this evening. No
additional severe weather is anticipated due to weaker wind shear
and limited instability. A few showers will also extend into
northeast OK through mid morning. High temperatures will be much
cooler than yesterday, generally in the 70s (coolest in northeast
OK).

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 151 AM CDT Wed Jun 4 2025

Low level southerly flow will resume Thursday, with warmer
temperatures and deeper moisture returning to the area. Meanwhile,
as upper level ridging builds to the south and troughing
strengthens to the north, robust westerly flow aloft will develop.
An upper level low will be picked up by the increased flow and
pass through the area Thursday night into Friday. Model guidance
is fairly locked in on the idea of a complex of showers and
thunderstorms developing Friday morning and moving through the
area. There is some uncertainty on the track, but it will probably
favor areas near and north of I-40. There is sufficient
instability and wind shear to support a severe weather threat,
which will most likely be wind dominant, as is common in west to
northwest flow this time of year. However, with anomalously high
moisture content, flooding is also expected to be a concern. Rain
totals of 1-2" north of I-40 will be common, locally higher, but
with lesser totals in southeast OK.

The pattern will remain locked in for several days, with another MCS
expected into Saturday morning. Guidance shows it in a similar area
to the first, but sometimes models are too far north in this type
of pattern, so it is reasonable to assume it may track a bit
south of the first MCS. The impacts are expected to be similar,
with a wind dominant severe weather threat and another round of
potential flash flooding. As rain totals increase, main stem river
flooding will become more of an issue as well. Yet another MCS is
anticipated into Sunday morning. By this time the effective
frontal boundary will be further south, so it is expected to focus
across southeast OK. As before, wind and flooding will be the
main hazards. Guidance becomes a bit more uncertain on potential
MCS activity by Monday and Tuesday, but there is at least some
ensemble signal pointing to another round or two of storms before
we potentially dry out into mid week. No sign of any major heat
for now, with highs mostly remaining in the 80s and lows in the
60s through the next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Wed Jun 4 2025

The evening line of showers and thunderstorms has largely passed
the terminals, with FYV the lone site still seeing category
impacts although improving at this time. Additional showers and
potentially, thunderstorms continue to be depicted near the front
on recent CAMs, with MLC and the W AR terminals more likely to see
this activity on station than the NE OK sites. Will carry PROB30
groups at these 5 sites for that potential, featuring IFR
conditions. Otherwise, expect lower ceilings behind the front to
persist into this afternoon and evening, although some improvement
in the height can be expected late in the period at the NE OK
sites. There is a low chance of VFR conditions arriving there
prior to 05/06Z but confidence is not there to forecast that at
this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   74  65  80  68 /  20  10  10  60
FSM   81  71  85  70 /  60  10  20  20
MLC   75  66  82  70 /  40  10  20  30
BVO   74  61  80  65 /  10  10  10  70
FYV   78  66  83  66 /  70  10  20  30
BYV   77  66  81  66 /  80  20  20  30
MKO   74  66  81  67 /  40  10  20  40
MIO   73  64  79  65 /  30  10  10  60
F10   73  65  80  68 /  20  10  20  60
HHW   79  68  84  70 /  50  10  20  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...22