796
FXUS64 KTSA 212310
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
610 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2025

 - Dangerous levels of heat and humidity in parts of eastern Oklahoma
   and west-central Arkansas today and in parts of west-central Arkansas
   tomorrow.

 - Hot and humid weather will persist this week, with additional
   heat headlines likely to be needed.  Heat concerns may even
   tick up a bit this weekend.

 - There is a low chance (15-20%) of thunderstorms Thursday night
   in northeast Oklahoma near the Kansas border.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 1158 AM CDT Mon Jul 21 2025

Outflow from storms in Kansas and Missouri is expected
to fade away with no impact on our forecast area.

Heat index values today will top out from the high
90s in the higher terrain of northwest Arkansas to
near 110 from west-central Arkansas into east-central
and parts of northeast Oklahoma.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 1158 AM CDT Mon Jul 21 2025

The upper low over south Texas will move slowly northwest
into west Texas by tomorrow morning.  From there it is
expected to turn northeast and track across western Oklahoma
on Wednesday. Right now it appears to track just far enough
to our west to keep a mention of thunderstorms out of the
forecast, but any shift of the track to the east could
require adding thunderstorm chances to the areas in northeast
Oklahoma along and west of Highway 75.

A fetch of upper-level moisture is expected to curl into the
middle of the country from Mexico.  That could get close
enough Thursday night to bring up thunderstorm chances
just a bit. Another push of upper-level moisture could
give rise to a few diurnal thunderstorms this weekend
in the terrain of northwest Arkansas, but at the moment
the chance of is low enough not to add to the forecast.

Heat headlines will be issued this afternoon for much of
northeast Oklahoma into west-central Arkansas and a part of
northwest Arkansas. An excessive heat warning will be issued
for Franklin County in the Arkansas River valley.

The edge is likely to come off the heat just a bit in the
western portions of our area during the upcoming week, but
heat headlines will likely be needed in parts of our area
each day.  Heat concerns should increase across the area this
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 609 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2025

VFR conditions will prevail at all locations through the forecast period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   78  98  76  97 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   77  99  75  99 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   76  97  74  96 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   75  97  72  97 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   75  96  72  96 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   75  97  72  97 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   76  96  73  96 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   77  95  72  96 /   0   0   0   0
F10   75  96  73  96 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   75  95  73  96 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ049-053-054-058-
     059-063>066-068-069-071-073-075-076.

     Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for OKZ054>058-
     060>063-066-067-070-072-074-076.

     Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ055>057-
     060>062-067-070-072-074.

AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ001-002-010-011.

     Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for ARZ002-019-029.

     Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ019-020-
     029.

     Extreme Heat Warning from noon to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for ARZ020.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...14