997
FXUS64 KTSA 121639
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1139 AM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1131 AM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

 - Shower and thunderstorm chances will continue the next several days.
   Saturday night is expected to have the greatest potential for
   excessive rainfall and severe weather.

-  After the several rounds of rain and storms, the flood threat near
   creeks and streams will increase, especially Saturday into
   Sunday.

- Overall drier weather is expected much of next week. Initially
  below normal temperatures will climb above normal by the end of
  the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 1131 AM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

A cold front pushed through this morning with extensive shower and
thunderstorm activity for much of the area. This activity is now
diminishing, with the front flipping direction and moving back north
as a warm front. Deep moisture and instability will spread back
north into the afternoon. With modest wind shear in place and
somewhat long hodographs, the atmosphere will support the
potential for thunderstorms, and even severe thunderstorms.
However, lift will be modest and localized near the warm front.
Most CAMs are showing relatively little activity, but there is
some signal so it bears watchings. If storms were to develop, it
appears northeast Oklahoma would be the favored location, and
timing would suggest late afternoon or early evening. High
temperatures today will be in the mid to upper 80s.

Overnight tonight, a decaying MCS will move in from the
northwest. Most CAM guidance breaks this system apart as it
approaches, and that is the most likely outcome, but maintained
some pops in case it can hold together a little longer than
expected. The most likely area to see showers and storms overnight
is the northern third of the forecast area. Lows will remain
mild, in the low to mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Friday)
Issued at 1131 AM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Any lingering showers and storms should wrap up by midday Saturday.
With humid southerly flow in place, temperatures will rise to the
low to mid 90s and dew points into the mid to upper 70s. The Heat
Index will reach the low 100s, with the potential for a Heat
Advisory for portions of the area. An upper level shortwave trough
and associated surface front will move through Saturday night
into Sunday morning. Like we`ve seen the last few days, this front
will push into a very moist and unstable airmass. The expectation
is that another round of widespread heavy rain will occur along
with at least some isolated severe weather potential. Elected to
issue a Flood Watch for a portion of the area that overlaps the
recent heavy rain footprint and the corridor where model guidance
points to additional heavy rain.

Cooler and drier weather will ensue by Monday as the front slides
south and out of the area, and northwest flow keeps the heat
south. Upper level ridging will at least briefly rebuild late in
the week, allowing for warmer and more humid weather to return.
But into late week and next weekend, ensemble guidance suggests
rain chances will resume.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 635 AM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Overall, a very low-confidence and somewhat complicated aviation
forecast over the next 24 hours. A complex of storms continues to
shift south and east of the TAF sites at this hour. Left in VCTS
at KMLC through 13Z as thunderstorm exit the terminal space. Will
continue to monitor. Patchy low-level clouds may develop over the
next couple of hours, mainly north of I-40, though confidence is
low on duration and coverage. Latest hi-res guidance shows
additional storms developing along a warm front as it lifts
northward this afternoon and evening. At this time, it appears
only NE OK terminals will have the highest potential for TSRA for
a few hours late this afternoon or early this evening. Another
complex of storms is forecast to develop over the High Plains
region early- mid evening will push ESE through the night. Still
lots of uncertainty if this complex will survive as it moves into
NE OK. Included PROB30 groups at KBVO, KTUL, and KRVS to show this
possibility. Low-level clouds may develop again overnight tonight
and into Saturday morning. Winds are expected to stay light and
variable this morning, then turning more southerly or
southeasterly and staying fairly light this afternoon behind the
passing warm front.

Mejia

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   86  75  91  69 /  10  20  20 100
FSM   88  75  92  74 /  40  20  10  90
MLC   88  76  91  73 /  40  10   0  90
BVO   85  72  91  66 /   0  20  30 100
FYV   86  73  87  69 /  20  20  30 100
BYV   84  70  86  67 /  10  30  50 100
MKO   85  73  89  70 /  20  20  10 100
MIO   85  71  88  66 /   0  40  50  90
F10   86  73  90  69 /  30  10  10  90
HHW   87  75  91  75 /  60  10   0  50

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday afternoon for
     OKZ056>058-062-063-068-069.

AR...Flood Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday afternoon for
     ARZ001-010.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...67