621
FXUS64 KTSA 110537
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1237 AM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1119 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

 - Brief cool down and some potential for showers and storms
   continues into Friday but unseasonably hot temperatures return
   over the weekend through next week.

 - Thunderstorm chances return Saturday however confidence is low
   in exact placement and coverage.

 - While locally heavy rainfall is possible through Friday night,
   the ongoing drought conditions will require much more rainfall
   for improvement. Fire weather concerns will continue during
   periods of stronger winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Friday)
Issued at 1119 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

Widely scattered showers and a few thunderstorms have developed
late this evening across parts of far eastern Oklahoma and western
Arkansas in response to the mid level wave across the area. CAMs
continue to advertise some increase in coverage after midnight,
particularly across western Arkansas, although the overall
coverage and intensity appear to be less than earlier thought. One
noticeable forecast change with this package has been to decrease
the forecast rainfall using the most recent short-term blended
guidance. The potential for additional showers and thunderstorms
during the day will continue in this same area, although the
western edge will shift eastward with time.

Given the rains seen earlier today and some clearing across parts
of northeast Oklahoma north of I-44, patchy fog development will
be possible toward daybreak. A mention has been added to the
forecast through mid morning.

Temperatures will remain near to maybe a degree or two above
normal, depending on location, and likely slightly cooler than
the NBM initialization, especially in north and eastern parts of
the forecast area. Highs for Friday have been nudged closer to
the short-term blend.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 1119 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

Most of the Friday night period should be dry, although a modest
increase in shower and thunderstorm potential exists for parts of
northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas toward daybreak
Saturday given the amount of low level warm advection. This
potential will continue through the day, although uncertainty
remains high regarding coverage and location of the greatest
potential. Forecast POPs on Saturday reflect a broadbrushed
version of a blend between the NBM and short-term blend. The highs
for Saturday have been left alone from the NBM given the
uncertainty regarding how much rain and convective cloud cover
will be around during the day. Heat headlines will need to at
least be considered for parts of the area Saturday.

Another batch of showers and thunderstorms will approach the
Kansas border from the north Saturday night into early Sunday, but
confidence is higher that this will not move too far south into
the area given the building upper level high. Highs on Sunday and
again on Monday are likely to be pushing triple digits across a
good chunk of the area. The NBM initialization was largely
accepted for highs both days, although some targeted increases
were applied to account for recent low biases at a few sites. Heat
headlines will likely be needed both days. Fire weather concerns
will increase once again on Sunday and especially on Monday due to
the return of gusty southerly winds.

Unseasonably hot conditions will extend through at least the
middle of next week, with only low chances for showers and
thunderstorms during the period, focused across areas near the
Kansas border and the northern edge of the upper high. Uncertainty
increases thereafter, with continued signs of another front
approaching the area late week into next weekend. The most recent
data indicates a later possible passage of this front than at this
same time yesterday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1237 AM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

Scattered showers with isolated thunder continue in the vicinity
of the northwest Arkansas sites through the overnight hours.
Impacts will likely remain minimal through the night, though some
heavier showers could reduce VSBYs at times. Areas of fog could
develop early this morning in the wake of the exiting showers,
especially across NE OK sites where more clearing has occurred.
Some guidance suggest some low cloud development is also possible
through mid morning, with MVFR CIGs possible. TAFs should improve
through the afternoon and evening as skies become mostly clear and
winds remain generally light through the period.

Bowlan

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   89  74  94  74 /   0  20  30  10
FSM   89  72  98  74 /  40  20  20   0
MLC   92  72  99  73 /  20   0  30   0
BVO   88  67  93  67 /   0  20  30  20
FYV   85  67  95  67 /  30  30  30   0
BYV   85  68  93  70 /  40  20  30  10
MKO   89  70  95  71 /  10  20  20   0
MIO   88  68  92  70 /  10  20  20  20
F10   90  71  97  72 /  10   0  30   0
HHW   93  72  97  73 /  50   0  20   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....22
AVIATION...04