570
FXUS64 KTSA 311132
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
632 AM CDT Sun May 31 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1135 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026

 - Rain/storm chances Sunday morning far NE OK into NW AR.

 - Rain chances decrease and hot and humid weather will prevail
   Sunday afternoon through Tuesday. Afternoon heat index values may
   reach triple digits in a few spots each day.

 - Unsettled weather returns late next week into next weekend with
   daily shower and storm chances.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Sunday)
Issued at 1135 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026

Storms that developed on the dryline during the afternoon were
mainly near and north of the Kansas border and stayed west of the
forecast area. The main storm activity during the afternoon was
over NW AR, first with more spotty storms and then with an
outflow boundary from storms over SW MO. Those storms have faded
this evening. The latest HRRR keeps the overnight fairly quiet
across the area, aside from some elevated spotty showers. There are
hints in the data of some warm advection showers and storms Sunday
morning in the vicinity of and on the cool side of the outflow
boundary draped across far NE OK and NW AR. Rising upper heights on
Sunday with the departure of the central CONUS upper trough will
result in a hot and humid day. With highs in the low 90s expected,
afternoon heat indices will touch the triple digit mark in several
locations. The latest HRRR does indicate an isolated shower or storm
could develop across NE OK along a surface trough and on the edge of
the cap over NW AR around and especially after 00Z Sunday evening.

Lacy

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 1135 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026

Upper heights continue to rise into Monday as the central CONUS
ridge amplifies/broadens and another afternoon with highs in the low
90s and heat indices near the triple digits is expected. The upper
ridge holds firm on Tuesday with another hot and humid day on tap.
Temperatures and humidity will dial back a bit by Wednesday and
Thursday as an expansive surface high centered over the Great Lakes
back-doors some cooler and drier air into the forecast area from the
east and northeast. The best rain/storm chances should stay west of
the forecast area in this scenario. The central CONUS ridge shifts
east during the latter part of the week, and rain/storm chances will
ramp up next Friday into Saturday with SW flow aloft increasing
ahead of a weak southern stream trough over the Southwest.

Lacy

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 632 AM CDT Sun May 31 2026

A brief period of MVFR ceilings are forecast this morning before
becoming scattered mid clouds late morning/early afternoon. The
greater potential for low clouds is KBVO, where MVFR ceilings
associated with an outflow boundary were pushing southeast toward
the CWA. Low shower/storm chances continue this morning for
mainly parts of northwest Arkansas, and then for far northeast
Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas afternoon/evening. Will continue
to keep TAFs dry at this time due to uncertainty in coverage/storm
initiation. Cloud cover this evening into tonight looks to be
mainly high clouds. Winds through the period start out east to
south, become breezy/gusty during the day out of the south, and
then weaken again this evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   93  73  94  71 /   0   0   0  20
FSM   93  72  95  72 /  20  10   0  10
MLC   93  75  95  72 /  10   0   0  10
BVO   93  71  94  68 /  10  10   0  20
FYV   89  73  92  70 /  20  10  10  10
BYV   87  69  89  66 /  40  20  10  10
MKO   92  72  93  70 /  10   0   0  10
MIO   91  71  92  68 /  10  20   0  10
F10   93  72  95  70 /   0   0   0  10
HHW   92  73  94  72 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...20