113
FXUS64 KTSA 020436
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1036 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1035 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

 - A slight chance of rain continues Monday. A cold front will result
   in much cooler weather near and north of I-44.

 - Drier and warmer on Tuesday with elevated fire weather potential.

 - An unsettled weather pattern returns beginning Wednesday. Areas
   of heavy rainfall and severe weather may occur at times for the
   middle to end of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Monday)
Issued at 1035 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

Showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue into the
overnight hours. These will form along the elevated frontal zone
where a mid level trough is providing lift. Any thunderstorms will
remain weak and isolated. The cold front will gradually work
south, nearly pushing out of the southern portion of the forecast
area by dawn. Low temperatures will vary considerably across the
boundary, with lower 50s in far southeast OK and as cool as the
mid 30s near the OK-KS border. Much of northwest AR will stay on
the mild side of the shallow boundary, with lows mostly in the mid
40s.

During the day Monday, the cold front will retreat north as a
warm front. It will remain oriented southwest to northeast, likely
stalling across east-central OK into west-central AR. Areas to
the north of the boundary will be cool, with highs in the 50s,
but south of the boundary 60s to 70s are anticipated. Most of
Monday will be dry but a few isolated showers may occur,
particularly near the OK-KS border. Any accumulation looks to be
minimal.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 1035 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

Tuesday will likely be the warmest day of the next week, as
southerly flow strengthens and very warm air pours back into the
area. High temperatures will reach the upper 70s to low 80s. With
warm, dry, and breezy conditions, areas of fire weather concerns are
expected. Recent rains may diminish this to some point, but the
reality is that many areas still have not seen meaningful rain, so
the ongoing dry fuel may still be an issue. A few showers and
storms could form by Tuesday evening for the far northwest part of
the area (north-central OK), including some thunderstorms.

The next stormy period arrives Wednesday, with rain chances
increasing across the area into Thursday. A cold front will slide
southeast, likely stalling somewhere across the middle of the
area. Meanwhile, upper level forcing will improve as an upper
level low moves by to the north, with the trough crossing the
region. With the already warm and relatively humid airmass in
place, precipitation is expected to blossom. Areas of heavy
rainfall are possible, especially for the southeastern half of the
area with PWAT near the 99th percentile for this time of year.
Additionally, a few marginally severe storms cannot be ruled out
given decent elevated instability, with hail probably being the
primary threat. Model guidance still shows some uncertainties on
the exact axis of heaviest rain or highest thunder potential so
keep an eye out for updates.

A deeper trough will dig into the southwest US for the end of the
week and weekend. Initially this will send another round of warm and
humid air into the area. In fact, dew points on Friday could easily
reach the low 60s for much of the area. Meanwhile, upper level
diffluence will increase overhead. Most model guidance wants to
kick off showers and thunderstorms within the warm sector.
Forecast soundings and hodographs show an environment more
conducive to severe weather, so this will be a period to watch
closely. Continued high PWAT will also allow for locally heavy
rainfall. Additional storminess is expected Saturday as the cold
front arrives, though the risk of severe weather will be lower by
then. Several days of potentially heavy rainfall may begin to
allow for some flood potential for harder hit areas. With the cold
front finally to the south, next Sunday appears that it will be
cooler but dry.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1035 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

Potential for shower and thunderstorm impacts will persist for the
next few hours at XNA/ROG/FYV, with the ongoing activity expected to
shift east of the NE OK sites by the beginning of the period.
Widespread MVFR to IFR ceilings should prevail for much of the
period at all sites. Confidence is lowest regarding that at FSM
where some guidance shows a much more brief window with category
reduction tomorrow morning before returning to VFR in the afternoon
and evening. With a persistent east wind expected at FSM will keep
the reduced ceiling in the TAF for now. A low chance of additional
showers and thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon continues, although a
chance not high enough to include explicitly in the TAF.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   68  44  57  53 / MMM  80  10  20
FSM   81  52  69  54 / MMM  50  30  10
MLC   80  50  66  58 / MMM  30  10  10
BVO   57  38  55  46 / MMM  70  20  20
FYV   76  49  64  53 / MMM  80  40  20
BYV   64  45  57  52 / MMM  90  40  30
MKO   76  48  61  54 / MMM  60  30  10
MIO   62  44  57  51 / MMM  80  20  20
F10   77  48  59  53 / MMM  60  20  10
HHW   79  56  73  58 / MMM  20  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...22