Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
549 FXUS64 KTSA 020527 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1227 AM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1222 AM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025 - Cooler than normal weather through Monday with highs in the 80s and lows in the upper 50s to 60s. - Shower and storm chances return Sunday into Monday as another shortwave affects the area. - Warming trend through next week with a return to above average temperatures by Wednesday. Heat headlines also look to return. && .SHORT TERM... (Through Today) Issued at 1222 AM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025 A remnant MCV tracking east near the Red River will keep low to medium (15-40%) shower and storm chances going south of Interstate 40 overnight. PWAT values around 2" and weak stearing flow will maintain a heavy rainfall threat with the stronger and more persistent activity before it moves completely out of the area by late Saturday morning. Light northeasterly surface winds associated with a ridge centered over the upper Midwest will also contribute to keeping smoke from Canadian wildfires in place across far northern Oklahoma but this is expected to lessen after sunrise. Aside from an afternoon cu field which will likely be most expansive over central into eastern Oklahoma, mostly sunny skies will cap off a pleasant early August day. && .LONG TERM... (Tonight through Saturday) Issued at 1222 AM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025 With the mid-level ridge still centered over the Desert Southwest and northwest flow aloft over the region, the cooler than normal and relatively drier airmass will remain in place through the remainder of the weekend. Guidance continues to favor another shortwave developing convection across the High Plains Saturday evening with upscale growth into an MCS that tracks across KS and the OK and TX Panhandles toward eastern OK Sunday morning. The upper trough is expected to strengthen and help maintain or regenerate storms closer to the area that then move through more of eastern OK Sunday afternoon and evening. The eastward extent of this activity is somewhat in question with the latest guidance keeping the highest PoPs west of U.S. 75. Cloud cover and showers from the proximity of the exiting trough will help keep temperatures cooler than average again on Monday. The upper ridge strengthens and builds eastward early next week estabilishing a warming trend which continues through at least Friday. A few terrain-based showers will be possible on Tuesday otherwise focus will shift to shortwaves topping the expanding ridge to the west which could initiate nocturnal storms that make an attempt to move into portions of central and eastern Oklahoma Wednesdy and Thursday. Left pops below 15% for now given uncertainties with both timing of convection and strength of building ridge this far out. The likelihood of heat headlines will grow Wednesday into Friday as strengthening southerly flow associated with a lee trough pushes deeper moisture back into the region. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1222 AM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025 MVFR ceilings will persist through much of Saturday morning at KMLC, otherwise VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 85 67 85 67 / 0 0 10 30 FSM 89 67 88 69 / 10 0 0 10 MLC 86 67 86 67 / 20 0 10 30 BVO 85 62 85 62 / 0 0 10 30 FYV 85 60 85 62 / 0 0 0 10 BYV 85 59 85 60 / 0 0 0 10 MKO 86 65 85 65 / 0 0 10 20 MIO 85 62 85 64 / 0 0 0 10 F10 85 64 85 65 / 10 0 10 40 HHW 85 67 86 67 / 30 0 10 20 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...24 LONG TERM....24 AVIATION...05