Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
479 FXUS64 KTSA 021733 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1233 PM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1232 PM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025 - Cooler than normal weather through Monday with highs in the 80s and lows in the upper 50s to 60s. - Shower and storm chances return Sunday into Monday as another shortwave affects the area. - Warming trend through next week with a return to above average temperatures by Wednesday. Heat headlines also look to return. && .SHORT TERM... (Through tonight ) Issued at 1232 PM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025 The calendar says August, but the weather implies otherwise. Midday temperatures are hovering near values that are more reminiscent of daily low temperatures during a more normal summer pattern, largely in the mid 70s to lower 80s. A few small showers continue to fester across portions of southeast Oklahoma, near a local max in instability. Trends into the afternoon should feature a decreasing coverage in this activity, with dry weather likely during the evening and overnight. Widespread overnight lows in the 60s should be expected. && .LONG TERM... (Tomorrow through Saturday) Issued at 1232 PM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025 Northwest flow aloft will persist through the remainder of the weekend and into next week with upper level ridging positioned across the southwestern United States. A potent disturbance will move into the region from the central High Plains tomorrow, leading to another uptick in the chances for showers and thunderstorms, primarily across parts of eastern Oklahoma. Organized severe weather appears unlikely, with the bulk of the instability and better shear positioned west of the area. Expect a similar scenario associated with another disturbance Sunday night and into Monday morning with a more eastward extent in the showers and thunderstorms than earlier on Sunday. While the upper level ridge will build farther to the north and east next week, at this point, north to northwest flow looks to persist through the week and into next weekend. As such, completely dry weather is not a guarantee, despite the return of the heat and humidity. Temperatures will increase each day next week, with above normal values remaining likely to return Wednesday and Thursday. Heat headlines should be expected. By the end of next week, the weather will more closely resemble the calendar. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1232 PM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025 MVFR cigs continue to impact MLC early this afternoon and occasionally TUL/ RVS. Expect ceilings to lift within a couple hours, then VFR conditions are likely to prevail through the remainder of the period for all sites. There is a low chance for isolated showers this afternoon across portions of E OK, potentially briefly impacting MLC. Late tonight into tomorrow morning, showers and thunderstorms are forecast to approach E OK sites from the west. However, impacts before 18z appear unlikely at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 66 85 66 86 / 0 10 40 10 FSM 66 88 68 89 / 0 0 10 10 MLC 66 87 67 87 / 0 10 30 20 BVO 61 84 63 85 / 0 10 40 10 FYV 60 85 63 85 / 0 0 10 10 BYV 59 84 61 85 / 0 0 10 10 MKO 65 85 66 85 / 0 10 30 20 MIO 61 84 64 85 / 0 10 20 10 F10 64 84 66 85 / 0 20 40 20 HHW 66 86 68 85 / 0 0 20 20 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...22 LONG TERM....22 AVIATION...43