968
FXUS64 KTSA 070558
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1158 PM CST Thu Nov 6 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1158 PM CST Thu Nov 6 2025

 - Above normal temperatures and dry weather expected through
   Saturday.

 - Widespread hard freeze with medium potential for a localized
   killing freeze in northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas
   Sunday night/Monday morning. Noticeably colder temperatures
   behind Saturday/s cold front will prevail from Saturday night
   through Monday night.

 - Near to just above normal temperatures make a return by the
   middle of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Friday Night)
Issued at 1158 PM CST Thu Nov 6 2025

A weak mid level shortwave over the Central Plains Thursday night
will continue to move east/southeast through eastern Oklahoma and
western Arkansas Friday morning. A trailing weak frontal boundary
currently positioned from the Texas Panhandle through northwest
Oklahoma to eastern Kansas and then extending northeast into the
Upper Midwest is expected to make it into northeast Oklahoma
around 09z Friday morning. Latest indications show the mid level
trof axis out ahead the surface boundary, which should push the
low level jet and area of warm advection east of the CWA before
the boundary can interact with them. Thus, the isolated precip
potential noted 24hrs ago over far northeast Oklahoma and far
northwest Arkansas looks to remain less than 10 percent into
Friday morning. Also ahead of the boundary, low temperatures
early Friday morning in the 50s are anticipated through the CWA.

The weak boundary moves across the CWA through the morning hours
Friday and exits southeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas early
afternoon Friday. Greater moisture advection as well as any precip
potential should remain east of the CWA. Meanwhile, behind the
boundary, northerly winds transporting a drier airmass filters
over the CWA. These conditions however should not impact afternoon
temperatures much with forecast highs in the 70s again. Low
temperatures Friday night should be slightly cooler compared to
Thursday night with light winds and drier low level air in place.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 1158 PM CST Thu Nov 6 2025

The main impacts to this forecast package will be with a wave
and associated strong cold front dropping southeast through the
Plains Saturday, and a second reinforcing colder airmass dropping
into the region Sunday.

Latest model solutions indicate a wave, currently moving into the
Pacific Northwest/Western Canada, drops southeast through the
Central Plains Saturday. The associated cold front enters the CWA
Saturday afternoon and exits Saturday evening. Ahead of the
boundary, limited moisture return should keep the frontal passage
dry, while temperatures warm into the 70s again. Behind the
boundary, winds shift out of the north/northwest with gusts of 20
to near 30 mph into Saturday evening. These winds look to weaken
some into the overnight hours before increasing again with the
secondary cold airmass spilling into the region.

This secondary push of cold air is associated with an area of low
pressure over the Hudson Bay area dislodging Saturday and
spreading southward Saturday night/Sunday over the Central U.S.
This colder airmass along with a Canadian surface high are
progged to reach the CWA early Sunday morning with afternoon
temperatures Sunday in the 40s for most locations. Parts of
southeast Oklahoma could struggle to reach lower 50s. As this
secondary push of colder air makes its way into the region, there
are some indications of this airmass squeezing a few rain drops
and or a few snow flakes out of the limited moisture over
northwest Arkansas Sunday morning. Model soundings indication the
majority of the moisture Sunday morning is close to/below the
dendritic growth zone, which could limit snow potentials. However,
with the strength of the cold and surface temps in the 30s over
far Northwest Arkansas Sunday morning, an isolated potential for
a few snowflakes cannot be ruled out at this time. For now though
will keep PoPs below mentionable criteria.

Wind gusts of 25 to 35 mph Sunday morning should weaken through
the day Sunday as the parent trof axis pulls farther off to the
east Sunday afternoon/evening. In the wake of the departing trof,
the Canadian surface high pressure spreads over the region with
mostly clear skies and subsiding winds. These conditions will
create a hard freeze with lows in the 20s across eastern Oklahoma
and northwest Arkansas into Monday morning. The normal cold spots
could see temperatures in the lower 20s and a killing freeze.
Thus, Freeze Headlines are likely necessary if these trends
continue to hold.

Surface high begins to push southeast of the forecast area during
the day Monday with the return of south/southwesterly low level
flow Monday night into Tuesday. In response, temperatures look to
remain above freezing for much of eastern Oklahoma Monday night,
while northwest Arkansas remains near/below freezing under the
influence of the western periphery of the surface high. The
increasing southerly flow Tuesday will aid in warmer temperatures
quickly overtaking the eroding colder airmass with high
temperatures back in the 60s/70s. The warming trend looks to
continue into the second half of next week with above seasonal
average temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1158 PM CST Thu Nov 6 2025

Some low-level wind shear appears to be occurring just off the
surface tonight in northeast Okalhoma. Scattered lower clouds
will develop in parts of the area later tonight and continue into
the morning. A few areas, especially eastern Oklahoma, could see
localized MVFR ceilings for a few hours in the morning. VFR
conditions are expected tomorrow afternoon with southerly winds
gusting at most locations into the 20 to 25 knot range. Low-level
wind shear could develop again tomorrow evening in parts of the
area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   79  55  76  46 / 0   0   0   0
FSM   79  58  79  48 / 0   0   0   0
MLC   81  59  79  47 / 0   0   0   0
BVO   77  51  74  43 / 0   0   0   0
FYV   73  58  74  44 / 0  10   0   0
BYV   72  58  73  45 / 0  10  10   0
MKO   79  57  76  46 / 0   0   0   0
MIO   76  53  73  44 / 0   0   0   0
F10   81  57  76  46 / 0   0   0   0
HHW   81  59  78  49 / 0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...08