313
FXUS64 KTSA 091723
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1123 AM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1121 AM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

 - Cold temperatures continue through Monday. Wind chill readings fall
   to 15-25 F tonight.

 - Widespread hard freeze with high potential for a killing freeze tonight;
   Freeze Warning in effect from 9 PM this evening until 9 AM
   Monday.

 - Much above normal temperatures return mid through late week.
   Dry weather will persist until Saturday, with breezy conditions
   at times.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight)
Issued at 1121 AM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

Cold northerly winds have developed across the area, with wind gusts
of 20-35 mph expected to continue through sundown. Scattered low
clouds will gradually mix out into the afternoon. Temperatures are
already close to daily highs given the cold advection offset of the
diurnal trend, with highs likely only reaching the mid to upper 40s
north of I-40, and low 50s south of there.

Winds will slacken overnight tonight. With light winds, clear skies,
cold air in place, and very dry air, low temperatures will plummet.
Low temperatures will mostly range from 19 to 27 F (lowest in the
north). A Freeze Warning is in effect tonight. Highs Monday will
remain chilly, ranging from the low to mid 40s in the north to near
50 F in the south.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Sunday)
Issued at 1121 AM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

Strong upper level ridging will build into the area late Monday
through the remainder of the work week. Meanwhile, robust southerly
flow will develop Tuesday with south winds gusting to 20-35 mph.
Temperatures will warm quickly, with most locations back into the
60s. Continued warming is then expected into late week with high
temperatures approaching 80 F by Friday. These, warm, dry, and
breezy conditions may promote increasing fire weather potential at
times.

Moisture levels will gradually ramp up late week due to the
persistent southerly flow. Longer range ensemble guidance is split
for what happens next weekend. The majority (60% of guidance) brings
an upper level low over or close to the region. With good dynamics
and sufficient moisture in place, rain and thunder chances will
likely increase. Roughly 40% of the guidance keeps this upper level
low far enough to the west such that we would remain warm and dry.
This leaves a low confidence outlook for next weekend at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1048 AM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

Low clouds and gusty winds exist at all sites to begin the TAF
cycle, with MVFR ceilings most prevalent in NW AR, and brief
periods of such farther west. Expect both ceilings heights and
cloud coverage to diminish within the first hour or two of the
valid TAF period, with a ceiling - albeit at VFR heights -
remaining farther into the afternoon at the far NW AR sites. Gusty
north to northwesterly winds will decrease with sunset, with a low
chance that FSM could see additional gustiness late in the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   24  46  34  68 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   27  47  30  65 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   25  49  34  68 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   20  45  29  68 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   20  43  27  61 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   22  41  27  60 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   24  46  32  65 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   21  42  29  62 /   0   0   0   0
F10   24  48  33  68 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   27  50  32  66 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Freeze Warning from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM CST Monday for
     OKZ049-053>076.

AR...Freeze Warning from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM CST Monday for
     ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...22