178
FXUS64 KTSA 251732 CCA
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion...corrected
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1132 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1129 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

  - Strong and dry cold front this afternoon will drop
    temperatures slightly below average through the rest of the
    week.

  - Wetter weather pattern arrives Friday night and into the upcoming
    weekend, before becoming much colder early next week.

  - At least low potential for impactful winter weather early next
    week. Please monitor forecast updates as more details become
    available.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 1129 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

A cold front will continue to push south and east through the area
this afternoon and evening, resulting in decreasing temperatures and
drier conditions. Post-frontal high pressure fills in tonight with
temperatures falling into the 30s areawide and below freezing across
northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. Light to breezy north-
northwest winds persist through the night, allowing wind chills to
creep into the mid-lower 20s in the coldest areas by tomorrow
morning.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Tuesday)
Issued at 1129 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

Sfc high pressure persists over the next few days resulting in
primarily dry and seasonably cold conditions through Thanksgiving. A
disturbance passes just to our north Wednesday night and Thursday
morning, perhaps squeezing out a couple light showers or flurries
for far NE OK/ NW AR (<10% Chance). However, no impacts are expected
from this feature, and the more likely scenario is just an increase
in cloud cover. By early Friday, high pressure begins to move off to
the east with increasing southerly flow returning to the Southern
Plains. Heights begin to fall by late in the day as a lead wave
moves east out of the four corners region. A more potent upper
trough then swings down from the Pacific Northwest on Saturday.
These systems will bring increasing rain/ thunder potential back to
the forecast Friday night through Saturday, especially across SE OK
and NW AR. While heavy rain may again become a concern, the moisture
return period is expected to remain fairly brief at this time, which
should help limit overall amounts.

Late Saturday, another cold front is shoved through the CWA and
clear to the Gulf coast. This will likely diminish the precipitation
potential and pull much colder air into E OK and NW AR. As
temperatures rapidly fall to near or below freezing behind the
front, there is at least some potential for light snow/ wintry mix
to occur before precipitation ends. As it appears now, any period of
wintry precip should remain brief and light, and no impacts are
expected at this time.

There is at least low potential for more meaningful winter weather
impacts early next week as another upper low ejects into the region
(5-10% chance per Probabilistic Winter Storm Severity Index).
However, confidence remains low at this range and no one particular
model solution is favored at this time, as revealed in ensemble
cluster analysis. This depicts a wide range of potential
solutions... all roughly weighted similarly at day 7/8. So for now,
just keep this potential in mind and consider your typical winter
weather precautions as we go into early December. Please monitor for
forecast updates as specific trends/ details become available.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1129 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

MVFR cigs should clear from NW to SE this afternoon into the early
evening with VFR conditions to prevail afterward into Wednesday. A
cold front will bring gusty NW winds this afternoon into the early
evening.

Lacy

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   64  34  51  31 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   65  37  53  34 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   66  36  54  31 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   63  30  50  27 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   62  32  49  30 /   0   0   0  10
BYV   61  33  48  31 /   0   0   0  10
MKO   63  35  51  32 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   60  32  48  31 /   0   0   0  10
F10   64  35  51  31 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   63  38  55  33 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...43
LONG TERM....43
AVIATION...30