231
FXUS64 KTSA 212338
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
538 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1141 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

  - Cold front moving through today will drop temperatures closer to
    seasonal normals for this weekend.

  - Increasing rain chances again late weekend into early next week.
    Locally heavy rainfall across SE OK and NW AR is the primary
    concern.

  - After Monday, near normal temperatures and dry conditions
    forecast through the holiday week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Tonight)
Issued at 1141 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

The rain has all exited the area this morning, with clearing skies
occurring over much of the region. A cold front currently extends
from north central Oklahoma through southwest Oklahoma. This front
will progress across the forecast area throughout the rest of the
day today, bringing cooler temperatures and drier air in its wake.
Temperatures ahead of the front this afternoon will likely still
rise into the 70s, with the warmest temps across SE OK and WC AR
where the front will be later to arrive. Across northeast Oklahoma
temperatures are forecast to rise a few more degrees into the upper
60s to near 70 before frontal passage keeps temps nearly steady or
slowly falling through the rest of the afternoon. A stray light
shower or two could develop along the front this afternoon, as well
as along the OK/KS border near the center of the upper low. Any rain
totals will be negligible though if anything does develop. Cooler
overnight lows are expected tonight, generally in the mid 40s for
most locations as cloud cover fills back in on the backside of the
exiting upper low keeping them from falling further.

Bowlan

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Friday)
Issued at 1141 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

Pleasant conditions will follow the frontal passage for Saturday and
most of the day Sunday as subtle mid level ridging builds over the
Plains in advance of the next system. Areas of fog will be possible
Saturday night/Sunday morning under the surface ridge axis. Another
upper low will lift northeast out of the southwest CONUS and across
the Plains by late Sunday into Monday. The result will be increasing
cloud cover and rain chances from Sunday afternoon into the
overnight hours. The low continues to trend northward with the track
and thus, widespread precip totals have come down some from previous
forecasts. Still widespread showers and a few thunderstorms are
forecast Sunday night into Monday. Locally heavy rainfall will
continue to be the main concern, particularly across southeast
Oklahoma into west central Arkansas where more convection could
occur owing to higher instability. Better synoptic ascent associated
with the entrance region of the upper jet will also overlap this
area, and some training of storms will be possible Sunday night into
Monday morning. Lighter precipitation is expected north of I-40,
with totals decreasing drastically as you get to the OK/KS border as
the mid level dry slot works into northeast Oklahoma. Widespread
totals ranging from one quarter inch(north) to 1.5"(south) will be
common with locally higher amounts of 3 plus inches possible across
SE OK and WC AR by Monday afternoon. On the heels of heavy
precipitation this week, more runoff could lead to more flash
flooding or river flood potential where the heaviest rains occur.

Following the system on Monday a generally quiet rest of the holiday
week looks to be in store. A series of cold fronts will keep
temperatures near normal through the period, with any rain chances
remaining non-mentionable at this point.

Bowlan

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 531 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

Post-frontal low clouds were observed entering NE OK this
evening, with ceilings likely beginning to decrease near BVO. These
low clouds will continue to overspread the entire region
overnight and through Saturday morning. Widespread MVFR cigs are
likely, with periods of IFR possible, especially across NW AR
sites where decreased vsbys are also possible. IFR ceiling/ vsby
potential is maximized between 10-16z. By mid to late afternoon,
conditions improve from west to east, with VFR conditions
eventually returning to all sites late in the forecast period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   47  61  43  65 /   0   0   0  10
FSM   50  65  46  69 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   46  63  44  69 /   0   0   0  10
BVO   44  60  38  64 /   0   0   0  10
FYV   47  60  42  67 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   49  59  43  65 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   48  60  45  65 /   0   0   0  10
MIO   47  59  42  64 /  10   0   0   0
F10   46  61  44  65 /   0   0   0  10
HHW   46  64  46  67 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...43