515
FXUS64 KTSA 060246
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
946 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025

...New SHORT TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 247 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025

  - Strong to severe storms and heavy rainfall are expected
    overnight tonight, overnight Friday night, and overnight
    Saturday night, and possibly overnight Sunday night for
    portions of the area.

  - The multiple rounds of rainfall will result in an increased
    flash and main-stem river flooding threat.

  - A cold front will bring a chance for storms early next week,
    with drying conditions expected midweek. Odds favor below
    average temperatures for this time of year.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of tonight)
Issued at 939 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025

A few showers and thunderstorms are beginning to move into parts
of northeast Oklahoma, and showers and storms may continue to
fester across the area near and just south of the Kansas border
for the next several hours, with a limited severe weather threat,
mainly in the form of large hail.

Later tonight, mainly after 3 am, a well organized MCS is
expected to move into the area from the northwest, with this
system racing southeast through pretty much the entire forecast
area late tonight and Friday morning. The bulk of the severe
weather threat will be with this MCS, with damaging winds being
the biggest threat. Hail will be a secondary threat, especially in
northeast Oklahoma, and an isolated spinup tornado cannot be ruled
out either. Locally heavy rainfall will be a concern, and the
flood watch will remain as is.

Have made only minor pop and temperatures adjustments for the rest
of tonight, with the rest of the forecast on track at this time.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Thursday)
Issued at 247 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025

Strong and/or severe thunderstorms and heavy rainfall will be
ongoing Friday morning as an organized complex of storms continues
to advance east/southeast-ward through the forecast area.
Although the most severe part of the complex should shift south
and east of the Tulsa metro by sunrise, ongoing street and flash
flooding may impact the morning commute. Hi-res model data show
the storms gradually becoming less severe and weakening as the
morning progresses and as the storms approach and push south of
the I-40 corridor. Nevertheless, heavy rainfall isolated flash
flooding will still be a factor through at least mid-morning. Data
from the 12z and updated 18z HRRR runs also shows additional
storm development across central and southeast OK behind the MCS
through the early afternoon hours. This is still highly uncertain
at the moment, but if this verifies, it would enhance the flooding
threat for southeast OK and west-central AR. The Flood Watch may
need to be expanded southward by this evening/tonight if trends
continue.

Mean mid/upper-level flow becomes more northwesterly by Saturday,
with additional perturbations occasionally flowing through it
during the late evening and overnight periods. Global models
heavily suggest multiple complexes of storms/MCSs impacting
portions of the forecast area over the next few nights: Friday
night into Saturday morning, Saturday night into Sunday morning,
and possibly again Sunday night into Monday morning. Main threats
with all of them will continue to be damaging wind gusts and heavy
rainfall that will lead to flooding/flash flooding. Exact
locations for greatest impacts are still somewhat uncertain.
Latest model guidance suggests the biggest impacts Saturday night
and Sunday night will be across southeast OK and west-central AR.
Better details in the days ahead. A cold front is forecast to move
through sometime on Monday, with slightly cooler temperatures and
rain chances decreasing behind it. Drier weather tries prevail by
midweek as mid/upper-level spilt flow/ridging tries to build into
the area. Precipitation chance increase again by late week as
another system moves across the area.

Mejia

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 637 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025

VFR conditions will generally prevail this evening across E OK and
NW AR, outside from any direct influence from a thunderstorm
complex currently moving through C OK. These storms will continue
to move east-southeast this evening, potentially impacting MLC
between 01-03z. Then, storms currently developing across NW OK
and S-Central KS are forecast to congeal into an MCS and track
east-southeast into E OK (08-14z) and NW AR (10-15z). This
complex will likely be capable of producing very strong winds,
heavy rainfall, and significantly reduced vsbys as it advances,
especially across NE OK sites (BVO/TUL/RVS). MVFR to IFR cigs are
likely following thunderstorms tomorrow morning, especially
across NE OK and NW AR. By the afternoon hours, much of the region
should improve to VFR, though MVFR cigs may tend to linger across
NW AR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   68  85  68  83 /  90  80  70  60
FSM   72  88  72  86 /  30  70  40  70
MLC   70  89  71  86 /  50  70  40  60
BVO   65  84  65  82 /  90  60  70  50
FYV   67  83  67  81 /  50  90  60  70
BYV   66  82  67  80 /  50  90  50  70
MKO   67  84  68  83 /  60  80  60  70
MIO   65  81  67  81 /  90  90  60  60
F10   67  85  67  84 /  70  80  60  70
HHW   71  89  72  89 /  20  30  10  30

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch from 1 AM CDT Friday through Saturday afternoon for
     OKZ054>072.

AR...Flood Watch from 1 AM CDT Friday through Saturday afternoon for
     ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...43