323
FXUS64 KTSA 231758
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1158 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1155 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

  - Increasing rain chances tonight and continuing into Monday.
    Locally heavy rainfall across SE OK and NW AR is the primary
    concern.

  - After Monday, near normal temperatures and dry conditions
    will prevail through the remainder of the workweek.

  - Next storm system and rain chances arrive next Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight)
Issued at 1155 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

An upper-level low that is currently drifting over the Rockies
will move over the Central Plains tonight into Monday morning.
Deep moisture will surge ahead of the upper low and spread over
the forecast area from the south and west after sunset this
evening. Widespread showers and a few thunderstorms, currently
ongoing over the High Plains and western-north Texas, will be
progressing eastward this afternoon, and moving into eastern OK by
early-mid evening. The moderate to heavy rain shield will
gradually move into west/northwest AR after midnight tonight.
Latest hi-res guidance shows the heavy rain axis beginning to
shift south after 3 AM, focusing much of the heavier rain south of
I-40 and closer to the Red River. Overall, widespread rainfall
amounts are expected to stay less than an inch through sunrise
Monday, with rain continuing beyond sunrise, but isolated
locations may receive up to or even more than an inch if enough
training occurs.

Mejia

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Sunday)
Issued at 1155 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

Moderate to heavy rainfall will be ongoing at the start of the
long- term period. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms may occur,
embedded in the heavy rain, as elevated instability maximizes
(500-1000 J/kg) south of I-40 early-mid Monday morning. With
sufficient deep layer shear in place, there could be a few
organized, strong and/or marginally severe thunderstorms that
develop. However, the better instability will remain south of the
Red River and therefore excessive rainfall will remain biggest
threat through the entire morning. Latest hi-res models have the
heavy rain axis from far southeast OK into west-central AR through
much of the morning after sunrise. A warm frontal boundary will
lift northward out of TX and near the Red River in the afternoon
as an upper-level jet streak moves overhead. These two features
may aid in maintaining moderate to heavy rainfall and a small
chance for severe storms in the afternoon, again mainly across far
southeast OK and western AR. Additional rainfall (in addition
from Sunday night) amounts of 1 to 2 inches still seem most likely
across southeast OK and western AR through the daytime Monday, a
few locations could see higher amounts. Regardless, majority of
the forecast area should remain below flash flood guidance and
therefore will forgo issuing a Flood Watch. Despite no Flood Watch
being issued, chances of minor flooding are still high and medium
to high for isolated flash flooding.

Wrap-around rain/showers around the departing upper-level low
will linger into Monday evening, with majority of the rain exiting
or ending before midnight Tuesday. As the upper-level low/trough
departs, a weak cold front is forecast to push through on the
backside of it, turning winds more out of the west or west-
northwest by early Tuesday morning. A reinforcing shot of colder
and drier air will arrive Tuesday afternoon, bringing in breezy
and gusty northwest winds. Temperatures fall below seasonal
average Tuesday night through Wednesday night with surface high
pressure remaining northwest of the area and northerly winds
persisting. Ensemble guidance suggests there is a low to medium
chance (20-50%) of a widespread light freeze overnight Wednesday
night. High pressure will then shift northeast of the area by
Thursday morning and southerly winds return, warming temperatures
back up to near average through the remainder of the week. Next
storm system/rain chances still look to arrive by next Saturday.
Better details to come in later forecast updates.

Mejia

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1155 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

Low clouds and IFR to LIFR cigs continue to impact portions of E
OK and W-Central AR this afternoon. Overall, the clouds are
forecast to gradually erode through this afternoon and reveal
clear skies, as has occurred within the past few hours across NW
AR. IFR to MVFR cigs will tend to hold on longer across E OK
sites, but should eventually dissipate with the arrival of the
next storm system approaching from the west. This storm system
will result in increasing rain chances for all sites overnight,
with thunder also possible primarily at MLC and FSM. Isolated to
scattered showers persist through Monday morning, particularly
across SE OK and W-Central AR. Cigs and vsbys are expected to fall
into IFR or LIFR category by early Monday morning and will be
slow to improve through the end of the forecast period. Winds
generally remain light, but may become briefly gusty with the
arrival of precipitation tonight through the morning hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   51  62  49  63 /  80  70  10   0
FSM   51  61  51  66 /  80  90  40   0
MLC   52  64  48  67 / 100  90  20   0
BVO   47  60  45  63 /  80  70  20   0
FYV   49  60  50  63 /  70  90  40   0
BYV   48  58  51  62 /  50  90  40  10
MKO   51  61  50  63 /  90  80  20   0
MIO   49  60  51  62 /  80  80  40   0
F10   51  63  48  63 / 100  70  10   0
HHW   52  63  48  66 /  90 100  20   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...43