Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
130 FXUS64 KTSA 141137 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 537 AM CST Fri Nov 14 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 535 AM CST Fri Nov 14 2025 - Well above normal temperatures through early next week. - Dry weather will persist through weekend with periodic breezy days which could locally raise grassland fire concerns. - Shower and thunderstorm chances return early next week with a heavy rain threat mid to late week. && .SHORT TERM... (Through Friday Night) Issued at 1155 PM CST Thu Nov 13 2025 A surface boundary currently across far western Oklahoma Thursday night remains west of eastern Oklahoma through Friday night. At the same time, the mid/upper level ridge currently over the Southern Plains is expected to hold over the region into the weekend. In response, low level southerly flow continues Friday with breezy conditions and well above seasonal average temperatures of mid 70s to low 80s over the CWA. These conditions will combine to create areas of limited fire weather danger Friday afternoon for eastern Oklahoma, with more localized areas of limited fire danger for northwest Arkansas. A limiting factor will be the continued southerly low level flow helping to keep afternoon dewpoints in the 50s to around 60 deg for much of the CWA. This southerly flow should help temperatures Friday night to remain warm with lows in the 50s and 60s. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 1155 PM CST Thu Nov 13 2025 The ridge aloft begins to flatten/sag southeast Saturday while a weak mid level impulse slides down the eastern side of the ridge. This impulse will push the surface boundary out west into northeast Oklahoma Saturday afternoon. Ahead of the boundary, the low level thermal ridge is progged to sag east/southeast with the movement of the boundary, which combined with continued breezy south/southwesterly flow, temperatures will again climb well above seasonal average. Limited to locally elevated fire weather conditions also develop Saturday afternoon, with the greater potential along and west of Highway 75 in northeast Oklahoma where drier air mixes in behind the boundary. A limiting factor looks to be that the stronger winds gusts could be offset to the arrival of the drier air mid/late Saturday afternoon. Surface boundary sags southeast into far southeast Oklahoma and west Central Arkansas Saturday night and remains over the CWA Sunday. North of the boundary slightly cooler temperatures are anticipated Sunday afternoon while upper 70s/around 80 deg remain along and south of the boundary. This boundary finally retreats northward Sunday night/Monday as a shortwave lifts northeast out of the Desert Southwest and into the Central Plains. In the wake of the lifting boundary, breezy southerly winds quickly spread back over the CWA with increasing low level moisture and afternoon temperatures of mid 70s to lower 80s forecast. Depending on the timing of moisture return into the region, limited to elevated fire weather conditions could develop for portions of the CWA Monday afternoon. Over the far eastern portion of the CWA, as the boundary and the mid level trof axis lift through the region, slight to low end chances for showers/storms are forecast. Any precip development looks to exit overnight Monday night. Attention then turns to a more defined area of low pressure moving onto the West Coast Tuesday and into the Southern/Central Plains late next week. Latest model solutions continue to differ on timing and strength of this next system. Ahead of the approaching wave, the boundary from Monday looks to sag back southward into the region Tuesday and remain in/near the CWA before the wave can kick it out late week. The combination of the southerly flow aloft transporting moisture over the top of the boundary with an increase in elevated instability will quickly bring a return of shower and thunderstorm chances Tuesday night with increasing coverage/intensity Wednesday into Thursday. At this time southeast Oklahoma into west central Arkansas looks to have the greater heavy rain threat Wednesday into Thursday. Again, there remains uncertainty with timing/placement of the stronger showers/storm potential. However, ensemble signals are indicating an increasing potential for a heavy rain threat with multiple inches of rainfall mid to late week. These details will continue to be refined as the event nears. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 535 AM CST Fri Nov 14 2025 Mainly VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. Some light fog may affect KFSM for a couple hours at the start of the period, and KMLC may see a brief period of MVFR ceilings this morning as well. South winds will gust over 20 knots at times during the day today. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 79 62 84 51 / 0 0 0 0 FSM 81 61 83 56 / 0 0 0 0 MLC 82 62 85 55 / 0 0 0 0 BVO 78 57 80 47 / 0 0 0 0 FYV 77 59 79 51 / 0 0 0 0 BYV 75 61 78 50 / 0 0 0 0 MKO 79 63 83 53 / 0 0 0 0 MIO 76 60 79 49 / 0 0 0 0 F10 80 62 85 51 / 0 0 0 0 HHW 81 62 83 58 / 0 0 0 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...20 LONG TERM....20 AVIATION...05