875
FXUS64 KTSA 051748
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1248 PM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1248 PM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025

  - Mostly dry weather with above normal temperatures into Monday.

  - Limited grassland fire weather danger west of Highway 75 and south
    of U.S. Highway 412 this afternoon.

  - Low shower and thunderstorm chances exist Monday and Tuesday,
    along with slightly cooler temperatures Tuesday and
    Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 1248 PM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025

Eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas resided between a ridge of
high pressure centered over the East Coast and a parent mid/upper
level trof oriented from the Mountain West through the Northern
Plains this afternoon. In response, southerly winds gusting 15 to
near 30 mph were observed over northeast Oklahoma, with gusts of 5
to 20 mph over southeast Oklahoma and wester Arkansas. These
winds along with ongoing above seasonal average temperatures and
relative humidity expected to fall to around 35 percent west of
Highway 75 in northeast Oklahoma will aid in limited grassland
fire weather danger through late afternoon. Fire weather concerns
west of Highway 75 should improve this evening with weakening
winds and recovering humidity.

This evening and overnight tonight, southerly low level flow
around the western periphery of the high pressure ridge will
advect moisture back into the region. At the same time, a
shortwave within the parent mid/upper level trof is expected to
over the Rocky Mountains. This will help to slowly push a weak
cold front, currently positioned from New Mexico through the
Central Plains and into western Minnesota, toward the region. The
combination of these features will increase cloud cover over much
of the CWA overnight tonight into Monday with low temps in the
60s forecast.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Sunday)
Issued at 1248 PM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025

The weak cold front is progged to remain just northwest of the CWA
during the day Monday before the shortwave and parent mid/upper
level trof moves eastward through the Plains Monday night/Tuesday.
Ahead of the boundary, increasing moisture interacting with
continued above seasonal average temperatures and also slightly
greater instability will develop low thunderstorm chances over
mainly far eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas. Development
could start as early as late morning, through the greater
potential 20-35 percent is forecast Monday afternoon into early
evening. Severe weather is not anticipated. Any precip
development along the front should remain north/northwest of the
CWA Monday.

Low rain/storm chances remain Monday night mainly over western
Arkansas and near the Oklahoma Kansas border as the weak front
begins to enter the CWA with the push of the shortwave/trof. These
low storm chances continue into Tuesday as the front moves
through, with rain/storm chances tapering off Tuesday late
afternoon. Overall, QPF amounts are forecast to be light with most
locations of the CWA unfortunately remaining dry Monday/Tuesday.
One noticeable feature with the passage of the front and the
associated shortwave will be cooler conditions Tuesday and
Wednesday with high temperatues of 70s/80s.

Looking into the second half of the week, latest model solutions
continue to indicate the ridge of high pressure reestablishing
back over the Southern Plains. However, compared to 24-hrs ago,
models now have eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas on the
eastern periphery of the ridge Friday into the weekend, before it
spreads more eastward late weekend. This could allow for a
shortwave to drop southeast through the Plains along the eastern
periphery of the ridge and across the CWA Friday. With the
inconsistency of model runs from yesterday to today, have kept
PoPs Friday just below mentionable criteria. If this latest
solution verifies then shower/storm chances could return Friday,
otherwise, a warming trend looks to develop Thursday into next
weekend. Late week forecast will continue to be refined.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1248 PM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025

VFR conditions should prevail through the period, with gusty
southerly winds likely isolated to northeast Oklahoma and
occasionally the far northwest Arkansas terminals this afternoon.
Diurnal cu should largely be a western Arkansas occurrence, although
a few could develop as far west as MLC. More substantial low to mid
cloud cover remains likely late in the period for the western
Arkansas sites given the increase in moisture from the southeast
late tonight and into tomorrow. A modest increase in mid cloud for
the northeast Oklahoma terminals tomorrow morning should be expected
in association with the slowly approaching front to the northwest.
Any showers or thunderstorms associated with either the front or the
increase in moisture to the east should hold off until after the end
of this TAF period, although it may be close to 06/18Z for the
western Arkansas sites given CAMs. Winds tomorrow should be lighter
than those seen today.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   65  88  64  80 /   0   0   0  10
FSM   67  85  68  85 /   0  30  20  30
MLC   65  87  65  85 /   0  10  10  20
BVO   61  88  60  77 /   0   0  10  20
FYV   62  83  63  81 /   0  30  20  20
BYV   62  81  64  79 /  10  30  20  20
MKO   65  87  66  83 /   0  10  10  10
MIO   63  86  62  78 /   0  10  10  20
F10   63  87  65  83 /   0  10   0  10
HHW   66  86  67  86 /   0  20  10  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...22