399
FXUS64 KTSA 070459
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1059 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1058 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

 - While some fog is possible overnight into Sunday morning ahead
   of a cold front, widespread dense fog like what occurred last
   night is not expected.

 - A cold front will move across the region on Sunday, with breezy
   northwest winds behind it. A combination of colder air and low
   clouds moving into the region behind the front will yield below
   average cool weather for Sunday.

 - Above average warm weather is expected Tuesday to Thursday
   before another cold front brings temps crashing down by the end
   of the week.

 - Precipitation chances are very low over the next 7 days.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Sunday)
Issued at 1058 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

Current surface analysis depicts an area of low pressure over
eastern KS, with a trailing cold front over central KS moving
toward the region. Ahead of the front, a cool and relatively
moist low level air mass remains in place, but this time with a
large area of low cloud over NE OK and NW AR. While skies have
cleared over SE OK and some fog is showing up over SW AR, low
clouds are either redeveloping or will be surging north into the
region later on tonight. All of this is to say that confidence in
a widespread dense fog event like what occurred last night does
not appear to be in the offing for tonight. Will let the midnight
shift reevaluate and issue an advisory if needed.

The cold front will enter NE OK after 3 AM and will sweep
southeast across the forecast area by midday. Gusty northwest
winds are expected behind the front, though not to advisory level.
A bank of low cloud dropping south out of Nebraska will surge into
the region toward daybreak and will overspread much of the
forecast area through the day. There is some potential that areas
west of highway 75 could see some rays of sun toward the end of
the day. The cold advection behind the front and low cloud will
hold highs below average for Sunday.

Lacy

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 1058 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

Low clouds will likely persist over portions of eastern OK into
western AR into Monday morning. However, as we head into next week
the upper trough over the Plains will be shifting east, and the
resulting downslope flow will lead to clearing skies, more
sunshine and much warmer temps. Highs Tuesday through Thursday
will be above average for this time of year, climbing into the 50s
and 60s. Another cold front is expected by Thursday night, and
this will be a glancing blow of arctic air that is expected to
plunge south with a piece of the polar vortex into the Great Lakes
and Northeast late next week, sending temps crashing back down to
below average for Friday. After another cold day Saturday, a
warmup is expected to commence by Sunday.

The configuration of the upper flow pattern is not expected to
change much over the upcoming 7 days. Northwest flow will prevail
aloft over the Plains, with no upper troughing expected to our
west. This is a drier pattern for this part of the world and this
forecast will be no different.

The current negative phase of the AO (Arctic Oscillation)
definitely favors a southward plunge of arctic air into the
country as is forecast by the models for the latter part of next
week, the brunt of which is likely to be to our north and east.
The latest GEFS forecasts have the AO increasing back to neutral
or even positive by the middle of the month, which would be less
favorable for arctic intrusions into the country and may lead to
warmer weather for the latter half of the month. Time will tell.

Lacy

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1058 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

IFR/MVFR conditions are anticipated across the majority of the CWA
tonight into Sunday morning while a dry frontal boundary moves
through the region. There remains potential for LIFR conditions for
KMLC, which the low level clouds have cleared as of 05z. Behind the
frontal passage, breezy north/northwesterly winds and MVFR ceilings
are forecast through Sunday afternoon. Once the mid/upper level trof
axis exits Sunday evening there are indications for cloud cover to
become more scattered west to east. For now will add a mention to
eastern Oklahoma and hold onto MVFR for far northwest Arkansas
Sunday evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   46  34  42  25 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   52  37  50  31 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   51  37  46  27 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   48  31  41  22 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   52  36  44  26 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   53  37  43  28 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   52  36  44  26 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   49  34  40  24 /   0   0   0   0
F10   49  35  44  25 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   51  39  51  30 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...20