170
FXUS64 KTSA 080457
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1057 PM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1056 PM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

 - A warming trend begins on Monday, as persistent low clouds
   finally break and skies clear.

 - Above average temperatures are expected Tuesday to Thursday
   before another cold front brings below average temps to close
   out the week.

 - Precipitation chances remain very low over the next 7 days.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Monday)
Issued at 1056 PM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

Current satellite continues to show widespread low cloud over the
region, though recent trends do show some clearing in the lower
Ark River Valley and SE OK. Used a blend of the recent runs of the
HRRR to put a more representative footprint into the sky grids.
The passing of a shortwave trough earlier today and eventually the
surface ridge axis during the day Monday will mark the beginning
of a change in weather regime from the past several days. Low
level flow by afternoon will be out of the west to southwest and
will spell a fast end to the low clouds and the beginning of a
warming trend. Forecast highs will still be slightly below
average, but will feel warmer than yesterday with the sun making
an appearance again.

Lacy

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 1056 PM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

By Tuesday, the surface ridge axis will slide farther away from
the region down over the Gulf Coast. An area of low pressure over
and northern Plains and a lee side trough over the central Plains
(resulting from an increase in downslope flow) will tighten the
gradient over the region and will result in gusty SW winds and
much warmer high temps. Models forecast some passing high cloud
across the north and not likely to hinder the warmup. Leaned
toward the warmer CONSMOS for the forecast, pushing highs above
average into the upper 50s to low 60s. A weak front will knock
temps back a bit for Wednesday, though still above average. Temps
warm back up Thursday ahead of the next stronger cold front. This
cold front will be on the fringes of an arctic intrusion that is
expected to grip the Great Lakes and Northeast late next week.
The GFS hints at a reinforcing front by Saturday as well, though
ensemble data from the 12Z models showed several different ways
the end of the week could play out. Given the uncertainty will
stick with the model blend which has cooler temps Friday and even
colder temps on Saturday. A warming trend will probably get going
to start the following week.

A predominant NWrly flow pattern aloft over the upcoming week
remains unfavorable for any appreciable chances for precipitation.

Lacy

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1056 PM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

MVFR ceilings should remain common across the northern half of the
CWA, while cloud cover continues to try to scatter out across
southeast Oklahoma and west central Arkansas tonight. During the day
Monday, MVFR ceilings are forecast to continue to finally clear with
high clouds anticipated Monday afternoon/evening. Winds through the
period start out light out of the north and become variable on a
transition to southerly Monday afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   27  46  33  62 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   32  49  31  60 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   28  50  33  62 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   26  46  29  62 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   28  48  32  57 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   29  46  33  59 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   29  46  32  60 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   26  44  32  59 /   0   0   0   0
F10   28  48  32  63 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   31  49  31  61 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...20