877
FXUS64 KTSA 040526
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1226 AM CDT Wed Jun 4 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Wed Jun 4 2025

  - More rounds of storms and heavy rainfall are expected
    beginning Thursday night and continuing into the weekend.

  - The repeated rounds of rainfall will lead to an increasing
    flash and mainstem river flooding threat late week on into
    the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of tonight)
Issued at 925 PM CDT Tue Jun 3 2025

Showers and thunderstorms continue to move east across eastern
Oklahoma and are approaching northwest Arkansas at this time. The
potential remains for isolated severe storms with this activity,
but the overall severe weather threat is slowly diminishing.

The cold front has just entered northeast Oklahoma and will move
southeast overnight and stall in the higher terrain from northwest
Arkansas into southeast Oklahoma Wednesday morning. Additional
scattered showers and storms are expected to develop overnight
behind the current activity and near and ahead of the cold front,
but severe chances will remain low with this activity. Will
continue the flood watch through the night given some of the
rainfall amounts that have already occurred and the potential for
additional storms overnight. Have adjusted pops for the rest of
the night based on current trends, with the rest of the forecast
looking good at this time.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Tuesday)
Issued at 256 PM CDT Tue Jun 3 2025

The front is expected to stall or wash out over far eastern
OK/western AR on Wednesday. CAMs suggest that scattered showers and
storms will develop during the afternoon in the vicinity of the
boundary, but without an appreciable severe threat due to weak deep
layer shear. Focus then turns to later in the week. Westerly flow
aloft is expected to strengthen as ridging builds over Deep South TX
and troughing remains over the north-central CONUS. In addition, the
second of two southwest CONUS upper lows (the first is now lifting
northeast across KS) is expected to get picked up and is expected to
track across KS/OK Thursday night into Friday. As a result, the GFS
and EC (with slightly different timing) develop a complex of storms
across western KS and track it east-southeast across northern
portions of the forecast area. The strong flow aloft suggests that
severe wind potential will be higher. Models show potential for
storm complexes again Friday night and Saturday night, though likely
not to take the same track as the previous ones. Any of these
complexes will also pose at least some wind threat. Multiple rounds
of storms tracking over the region suggest more widespread higher
rainfall potential and thus a river and flash flood threat.
Amplification of the upper flow pattern is expected by late in the
weekend on into the first part of next week as a deep trough
develops over the north-central CONUS. We may see a nice weather day
or two in there, but it`s also hard to rule out storms this time of
year in NW flow. Still no sign of a big ridge developing, and
instead show consistent troughing over the western CONUS with
disturbances ejecting into the Plains instigating rain and storm
chances. This will keep temps from getting hot.

Lacy

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Wed Jun 4 2025

The evening line of showers and thunderstorms has largely passed
the terminals, with FYV the lone site still seeing category
impacts although improving at this time. Additional showers and
potentially, thunderstorms continue to be depicted near the front
on recent CAMs, with MLC and the W AR terminals more likely to see
this activity on station than the NE OK sites. Will carry PROB30
groups at these 5 sites for that potential, featuring IFR
conditions. Otherwise, expect lower ceilings behind the front to
persist into this afternoon and evening, although some improvement
in the height can be expected late in the period at the NE OK
sites. There is a low chance of VFR conditions arriving there
prior to 05/06Z but confidence is not there to forecast that at
this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   66  81  68  83 /  10  20  50  60
FSM   69  86  72  88 /  30  30  20  50
MLC   68  83  70  87 /  10  30  20  50
BVO   63  80  65  81 /  10  20  70  60
FYV   67  82  67  83 /  40  30  30  60
BYV   67  81  67  82 /  40  40  30  70
MKO   66  80  68  83 /  20  30  40  60
MIO   65  79  67  81 /  10  30  60  70
F10   65  80  68  84 /  10  30  40  60
HHW   70  84  70  87 /  20  20  10  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for OKZ054>068-070-071-
     073.

AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...22