432
FXUS64 KTSA 031121
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
621 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 231 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

  - Severe storm chances return this morning across SE OK and
    W-Central AR.

  - Rain chances continue through the weekend with heavy rain and flood
    potential increasing, especially across SE OK and W-Central
    AR.

  - Much cooler weather arrives this weekend, with rain possibly
    mixing with snow Sunday morning. A freeze is expected in some
    locations Sunday or Monday mornings.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 231 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

Deep upper level troughing continues across the western CONUS with
warm moist advection continuing at the low levels south of a
stalled frontal boundary draped over far southeast Oklahoma into
northern Texas. Another round of showers and thunderstorms is
already initiating over north Texas early this morning on the
leading edge of deeper moisture return in the wake of yesterday`s
activity. This activity will spread northward through the morning
hours and spread over much of eastern Oklahoma and western
Arkansas throughout the day today. South of the surface boundary,
increasing instability and shear will result in a continued threat
for severe storms capable of large hail, damaging winds, and a
couple tornadoes possible near the Red River where more surface
based development is more likely. North of the boundary, over much
of the rest of the forecast area, primarily showery weather with
embedded thunderstorms will overtake the region this morning. This
wave of activity should exit the area from west to east during the
afternoon hours, with some lingering light showers possible into
the evening. The precipitation and persistent cloud cover will
result in cooler temperatures today, with most locations seeing
highs in the 60s this afternoon.

Bowlan

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 231 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

A brief lull in activity is expected tonight before the next round
of rain/storms arrives Friday morning. The surface frontal
boundary is progged to lift northward some by Friday morning,
possibly getting as far north as the I-44 corridor. The slow
moving upper trough will begin to eject out into the Southern
Plains during the day Friday, with several rounds of rain and
thunderstorms once again overspreading the region. In addition to
the severe threat, a heavy rain and flooding threat will begin to
evolve from Friday through early Sunday as precipitable water
values near seasonal records for our area south of the warm front.
The heaviest rain is expected to focus near and south of the warm
front across southeast Oklahoma into west central Arkansas.
Widespread 4-6" of rain can be expected in this region with
locally up to 10" possible in some locations. Portions of
northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas will see less in the
way of rainfall totals, but still a good soaking rain for the
region through Saturday night. The Flood Watch will continue as
is, as both flash flooding and mainstem river flooding will become
a bigger problem as the event unfolds. The severe threat will
also be maintained through this time period as The ECMWF EFI
instability/shear numbers are near the maximum from Thursday
through Saturday across southeast Oklahoma.

As the trough axis finally shifts east of the region on Sunday, an
anomalously cold airmass will filter in in its wake. A few of the
showers left over early Sunday morning as the system exits could
even briefly change to snow across northern Oklahoma and northwest
Arkansas. With the time of year warm ground temperatures, very
little to no impact is expected from any wintry precip Sunday
morning at this point. Still, temperatures will notably cooler
heading through the first part of next week, with a frost/freeze
possible on Sunday and Monday morning across the northern half of
the forecast area. The forecast dries out through the rest of the
period as northwest flow aloft settles over the region, keeping
temperatures slow to warm through much of next week.

Bowlan

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 618 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

Widespread showers and storms will impact the terminals through
early afternoon with coverage then likely to decrease by mid to
late afternoon. Ongoing ceilings are generally low VFR to MVFR and
this trend will steadily lower into the day with widespread MVFR
to periodic IFR levels. After sunset expectations are ceilings
will lower into IFR levels area wide. Widespread showers and
storms develop again overnight and likely impact all terminals
late in this forecast period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   60  49  61  48 /  90  60 100  80
FSM   65  56  73  57 /  90  80 100 100
MLC   62  54  67  51 /  90  80 100  90
BVO   61  46  61  44 /  90  60 100  70
FYV   63  51  70  50 /  90  70 100  90
BYV   60  51  66  50 /  90  70 100  90
MKO   61  52  63  48 /  90  60 100  90
MIO   57  49  60  46 /  90  70 100  80
F10   61  51  61  48 / 100  70 100  90
HHW   64  57  72  55 / 100  90 100 100

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch from late tonight through Sunday morning for OKZ049-
     053-063-068>076.

AR...Flood Watch from late tonight through Sunday morning for ARZ001-
     002-010-011-019-020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...07