698
FXUS64 KTSA 081836
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1236 PM CST Fri Nov 8 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of this afternoon and tonight)
Issued at 1236 PM CST Fri Nov 8 2024

A persistent band of showers and storms in portions of eastern
Oklahoma has persisted throughout the day, leading to rain totals
of roughly a half inch to an inch. Recent radar and mesoscale
analysis shows no signs of this precipitation letting up, with
additional bands of precipitation developing and approaching from
the west. Accordingly, widespread showers and thunderstorms will
continue into the overnight hours until the cold front sweeps
through, ending storm chances from west to east.

PWAT values are very impressive this year at 1.5-1.75", which is above
the climatological 99th percentile for early November. Rain
totals will be highest along the western portions of the forecast
area, and lowest in the east, with totals mostly ranging from a
half inch to 2 inches. However, A few areas where thunderstorm
activity is more persistent could see higher totals, such as
within the previously mentioned persistent band in eastern
Oklahoma. Given the very wet soils from recent rains, some areas
may see excessive rainfall leading to minor flash flooding (15%
chance). In terms of storm impacts, the storms will be elevated
due to a layer of shallow cool air near the surface, but we will
still see 500-1000 J/Kg of MUCAPE. This will mean that tornadoes
should not be a threat today, however some marginally severe hail
and gusty winds could occur with any stronger cells, especially
close to the Red River. Behind the cold front, conditions will
rapidly improve as cool and dry air moves in. Low temperatures
will be coolest in the west, with lows across the area ranging
from the mid 40s to the mid 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Friday)
Issued at 1236 PM CST Fri Nov 8 2024

Ridging returns to the area Saturday through Tuesday with mild
temperatures but dry conditions. Highs will be in the mid 60s to low
70s with lows in the 40s to low 50s. A weak system will pass by the
area Tuesday to Wednesday. The majority (60-70%) of guidance is too
progressive with the system, so precipitation does not develop along
the front until its east of the area. Some guidance is slower and
deeper with the trough, giving a window for some showers and
thunderstorms Tuesday or perhaps early Wednesday.

Behind this system, temperatures will cool but remain near to
above normal for this time of year. No additional rainfall is
likely after that through the end of the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1140 AM CST Fri Nov 8 2024

Scattered showers will continue across eastern Oklahoma into the
afternoon hours. A few rumbles of thunder could occur, but mostly
thunder chances will be below 20% through the afternoon. MVFR cigs
with some scattered IFR cigs will stay planted over eastern OK
sites this afternoon. More widespread showers with embedded
thunderstorms will move from west to east later this afternoon and
evening as a frontal boundary pushes across the area. Reduced
VSBY with rainfall will be the main terminal impacts, along with
MVFR to IFR cigs spreading in this evening and overnight. Skies
will start to scatter and clear from the west toward the end of
the TAF period as the front continues to push eastward.

Bowlan

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   51  67  45  70 / 100  10   0   0
FSM   58  68  49  74 /  90  60  10   0
MLC   51  70  45  73 /  90  10   0   0
BVO   48  65  40  68 / 100  10   0   0
FYV   55  67  43  70 /  80  60  10   0
BYV   51  66  47  70 /  80  70  10   0
MKO   53  67  45  70 /  90  30   0   0
MIO   53  66  44  67 /  90  40   0   0
F10   49  67  43  71 /  90  10   0   0
HHW   55  69  46  74 /  90  20  10   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...04