745
FXUS64 KTSA 261903
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
203 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 203 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025

  - Shower and storm potential tonight into Sunday morning.
    A few strong to marginally severe.

  - Multiple upper level storm systems move over the Plains early
    to mid next week with additional thunderstorm and heavy rain
    chances. Severe thunderstorms also possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of this afternoon and tonight)
Issued at 203 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025

An MCV is slated to move across northeast Oklahoma late this afternoon
into this evening bringing a round of showers and storms to
the region. The more potent storms will likely stay south of the I-40
corridor in a zone that is becoming more unstable north of boundary
near the Red River and south of a more subtle Theta-E boundary near
I-40. South of I-40, large hail to the size of quarters and wind gusts
to around 60 mph will be possible with any storms that develop later
this afternoon. While the potential for tornadoes is very low it is
not zero. North of I-40, small hail and gusty winds will be more likely
with the storms more elevated in nature. Localized flooding of low lying
areas could be a problem through this evening with rainfall rates of over
1 inch per hour possible with the strongest cells. This activity is likely
to end later this evening. However, the potential for showers and storms
will remain through the night as the frontal boundary near the Red River
lifts back to the north as a warm front.


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Saturday)
Issued at 203 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025

After some morning showers/storms across northern portions of the area
Sunday morning, a warm and humid day is store for the area on Sunday.

The weather pattern becomes more unsettled as we move through the
week as a cold front sags into the region Monday night into Tuesday
morning and lingers across the area through Thursday morning. This
boundary will serve as the focus for several rounds of showers/storms
during this time as a series of upper level disturbances move over
the area within the sharpening southwesterly flow aloft. There looks
to be a severe weather threat with each round of storms and a growing
heavy rain and flood threat as we move into the Tuesday-Wednesday
time-frame.

High pressure is expected to build into the region late week and
into Saturday bringing quieter weather to the area.


&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1247 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025

Overall, a low confidence and messy aviation forecast through the
next 24 hours. Generally and currently, VFR continues to prevail
across eastern OK and northwest AR early this afternoon. A slow
transition to MVFR is still expected over the couple of hours as a
cluster of storms moves into eastern OK from the west/southwest.
Showers and thunderstorms will eventually push into northwest AR
late this afternoon or early this evening. Ceilings may lower
further to IFR at the AR terminals for a few hours into Sunday
morning. Timing of precipitation/thunder is somewhat uncertain,
with TAFs reflecting latest HRRR model timing. That said, TAFs
will likely need to be amended over the next several hours to
better reflect current obs/trends. A gradual transition to VFR is
expected mid-late morning Sunday, with additional
shower/thunderstorms possible by midday. Winds mostly stay light,
with winds veering southeasterly overnight tonight into Sunday
morning.

Mejia

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   62  81  67  81 /  70  20   0  10
FSM   63  84  66  86 /  60  10   0   0
MLC   63  83  68  82 /  50  10   0  10
BVO   58  80  64  82 /  70  20  10  20
FYV   59  80  64  83 /  70  10   0   0
BYV   57  78  64  82 /  70  20   0   0
MKO   62  80  66  80 /  60  10   0  10
MIO   60  78  66  79 /  70  20   0  10
F10   61  80  67  79 /  60  10   0  10
HHW   63  83  66  82 /  40  10   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...67