047
FXUS64 KTSA 052350
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
550 PM CST Wed Feb 5 2025

...New SHORT TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 544 PM CST Wed Feb 5 2025

 - Areas of dense fog will redevelop this evening in northeast
   Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.

 - A chance of drizzle and also light rain chances linger into
   tomorrow.

 - High uncertainty in temperatures persists through Saturday.

 - Strong cold front arrives this weekend, with winter
   precipitation potential.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 544 PM CST Wed Feb 5 2025

Shallow cool air is holding on across northeast OK with
temperatures in the mid to upper 40s. Elsewhere, warmer southerly
winds have increased temperatures into the upper 50s to mid 60s.
Thick cloud cover continues except across far southeast OK.
Overnight tonight conditions will mostly be stagnant, with
temperatures likely changing very little. Areas of drizzle and
light showers will persist north of I-40, especially in northwest
AR. Any accumulation will be quite minor.

Areas of dense fog are expected to develop later this evening,
continuing through the overnight hours. In fact, several areas are
already seeing visibility down to 1-3 miles. A Dense Fog Advisory
has been issued for the areas of highest confidence, but may need
to be expanded southward if conditions warrant.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Wednesday)
Issued at 304 PM CST Wed Feb 5 2025

Temperatures will be the main challenge for the next few days,
with shallow cold air in place and large differences in the
data regarding how fast and how far north it will move back north
tonight and into tomorrow, as well as how fast the Saturday push
of cold air will occur. In general, have trended things toward the
colder side of guidance, especially by this weekend. However, it`s
worth noting that high uncertainty persists during this time
frame. Some low rain chances will exist during the period, as
well, mainly during the day Friday.

Early next week, a storm system will approach from the west, with
higher precipitation chances resulting. It is looking more likely
that at least some of this will fall as wintry precipitation
types, including the potential for freezing rain, especially given
the overall warm bias recently in the longer range models. This
forecast will continue a mention of snow and freezing rain for
portions of the area north of I-40, as well as featuring a modest
decrease in temperatures from the NBM initialization during this
time frame. Expect changes during this time frame and keep an eye
on future forecasts, given the potential for winter precipitation
impacts.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 535 PM CST Wed Feb 5 2025

IFR conditions in the shallow cold airmass in place at the NE OK
and far NW AR sites should deteriorate to LIFR or VLIFR overnight
into Thursday morning. KFYV may be shielded from the worst of the
conditions given the terrain and its effect on shallow cold air,
so have stuck with prevailing IFR there. Farther to the south at
KMLC and KFSM, these sites are expected to stay outside of the
shallow cold air and will thus stay prevailing MVFR, though KMLC
may briefly get into the shallow cold air and IFR cigs around
daybreak. As we head into Thursday, a reinforcing frontal push
will result in an increasing N to NE wind and gradually improving
conditions areawide. Some data even has cigs scattering out, but
confidence isn`t high enough to put in TAF at this point.

Lacy

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   45  49  39  58 /  20  10   0  20
FSM   56  69  50  61 /  20  20  10  20
MLC   59  66  47  68 /  10  10  10  10
BVO   41  47  33  54 /  10  10   0  20
FYV   58  62  44  58 /  20  20  10  30
BYV   55  58  43  52 /  20  20  10  20
MKO   52  60  44  62 /  20  20  10  20
MIO   43  47  39  54 /  20  20   0  30
F10   51  56  41  65 /  20  10  10  20
HHW   61  72  54  73 /  10  20  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Dense Fog Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 8 AM CST Thursday
     for OKZ054>063-067>069.

AR...Dense Fog Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 8 AM CST Thursday
     for ARZ001-002-010-011.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....22
AVIATION...30