407
FXUS64 KTSA 041750
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1250 PM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1250 PM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025

  - Mostly dry weather with above normal temperatures into Monday.

  - Limited grassland fire weather danger west of Highway 75 and
    south of U.S. Highway 412 Saturday and Sunday afternoons.

  - Low shower and thunderstorm chances exist early to middle of
    next week, along with slightly cooler temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Sunday)
Issued at 1250 PM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025

High pressure remained the dominate feature from the Southern
Plains to the East Coast this afternoon, while out west a low
pressure system was lifting northeast into the Rocky Mountain
region. With eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas between these
two features, southerly low level winds had increased. Gusts of
15 to around 25 mph over much northeast Oklahoma with gusts of 5
to 15 mph across southeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas should
remain common through the afternoon hours.

Breezy winds combined with ongoing above seasonal average
temperatures and afternoon relative humidity values expected to
fall to around 30-35 percent will lead to limited grassland fire
weather danger this afternoon for parts of northeast Oklahoma.
Area of greater concern is west of Highway 75 and south of U.S.
Highway 412, were locations are few weeks removed from significant
rainfall. Fire weather concerns should improve this evening as
humidity values recover and winds weaken.

Conditions this afternoon are anticipated again Sunday afternoon,
while the area of low pressure lifts up into the Northern Plains
and the western periphery of the high pressure ridge shifts east
of the CWA. Again, above seasonal average temperatures and breezy
southerly winds will help to create limited grassland fire weather
danger west of Highway 75 Sunday afternoon. A limiting factor
will be the return of low level moisture beginning Sunday
afternoon as the western half of the ridge resides east of the
region.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 1250 PM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025

As the area of low pressure lifts into the Northern Plains Sunday,
a trailing weak cold front is expected to sag southward toward the
CWA. At the same time, the parent mid/upper level trof remains
over the Western CONUS, allowing for another shortwave to move
across the Rockies and into the Plains Monday. Ahead of this
second shortwave, southerly low level flow will continue to advect
moisture back into the region Monday. Continued above seasonal
average temperatures interacting with the moisture advection and
slightly higher instability over the region could allow for
isolated to widely scattered showers/thunderstorms to develop late
morning into Monday evening. The greater potential is across far
eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas where the greater moisture
return is expected.

The shortwave is progged to move more eastward Monday night and
Tuesday over the Plains, which will help to suppress the
amplitude of the ridge and also push the weak cold front southward
into the CWA. In response, rain chances remain Monday night over
the eastern half of the CWA and also near the Kansas border as the
boundary near the region. Low chances of showers and
thunderstorms continue Tuesday with the weak boundary sagging
southward through the CWA. The greater potential for thunder
Tuesday is forecast for southeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.
Severe weather is not anticipated, and overall QPF is currently
forecast to remain light.

Rain chances as well as the boundary exit Tuesday evening with
more mid/upper level near zonal flow developing in the wake of the
departing shortwave. High pressure ridge reestablishes itself
back over the Southern Plains for Thursday and looks to remain
over the region into next weekend. There remain differences among
the extended model solutions for the location/strength of the
ridge so some uncertainties exist. However, after slightly cooler
temperatures with the front Tuesday and Wednesday, a warming
trend looks to develop Thursday with the return of above seasonal
average temperatures again.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1250 PM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period, with a
few diurnal cu most likely at FSM this afternoon. The chance of even
a brief period of visibility reduction around sunrise tomorrow is
reduced from even this morning given the faster above surface winds
forecast to be present. HREF probabilities of reductions under 5
miles are very low, albeit nonzero, near mainly FSM. Gusty southerly
winds this afternoon should be expected at the NE OK terminals, with
a repeat beginning 15-16Z tomorrow at the NE OK sites and likely,
FYV also.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   64  89  65  87 /   0   0   0  10
FSM   63  88  67  85 /   0   0   0  30
MLC   64  88  65  86 /   0   0   0  10
BVO   60  88  60  86 /   0   0   0  10
FYV   58  84  62  83 /   0   0   0  30
BYV   61  83  62  82 /   0   0   0  30
MKO   63  87  64  86 /   0   0   0  10
MIO   62  85  63  85 /   0   0   0  20
F10   61  87  63  87 /   0   0   0  10
HHW   62  87  65  85 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...22