528
FXUS64 KTSA 081120
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
520 AM CST Fri Nov 8 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 353 AM CST Fri Nov 8 2024

A strong closed upper low over New Mexico will lift north
northeast to near the Colorado/Kansas/Nebraska border area by
late tonight. Widespread showers and a few thunderstorms will
spread slowly east across our area today into this evening before
tapering off late tonight following the passage of a dryline. The
heaviest rainfall amounts...1 to 2 inches with locally higher
amounts...will fall across the western part of the forecast area,
with much lesser amounts to the east. The majority of the heavy
rainfall will occur later this afternoon and evening. With all the
clouds and rain, high temperatures today will be held to the 60s,
with lows tonight mostly in the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 353 AM CST Fri Nov 8 2024

Skies will clear from west to east Saturday, and quiet weather
with above normal temperatures will then prevail for much of the
next week. The one exception looks to be Tuesday night into early
Wednesday when both the ECMWF and UKMET show a stronger system
moving across the plains than the GFS does. This seems likely to
result in a few showers, and possibly even thunderstorms, across
mainly the northern part of the forecast area despite the dry NBM
pops.

In addition, the NBM cold season bias of being several degrees too
cool on high temperatures on sunny days appears to have returned
for another season, and as such have raised afternoon highs to the
lower end of the GFS/ECMWF MOS numbers most days, and this may
still be too low on some of the days next week. NBM lows look much
more reasonable for most places, with no freezes expected anytime
soon.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 520 AM CST Fri Nov 8 2024

An approaching upper system will bring showers and a few
thunderstorms to the region later today into tonight. Low level
moisture return ahead of the associated front will bring mainly
MVFR cigs with some spotty IFR cigs possible.

Lacy

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   62  51  66  45 /  90 100  10   0
FSM   67  57  68  47 /  40  80  50   0
MLC   66  52  70  44 /  80  90  10   0
BVO   61  50  66  40 /  80 100  10   0
FYV   64  54  67  41 /  30  80  50   0
BYV   63  51  67  46 /  10  70  70   0
MKO   64  54  68  44 /  70  90  10   0
MIO   64  52  66  44 /  40  90  30   0
F10   64  50  69  43 /  90 100   0   0
HHW   66  55  71  47 /  80  90  20   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...30