Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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498
FXUS64 KTSA 171731
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1231 PM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1225 PM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025

 - Shower and storm chances increase tonight through Saturday with a
risk of severe weather, especially Saturday afternoon.

 - Strong cold front brings winds and a brief cool down Sunday,
followed by breezy and warm conditions Monday result in limited fire
weather danger.

 - More seasonable temperatures Tue-Fri with chance of rain returning
late in the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025

Showers associated with a small scale shortwave lifting northeast
across the region continue to decrease with mostly sunny skies and
unseasonably warm conditions anticipated for the remainder of today.

Low level southerly flow will continue to transport increasingly
moist and unstable air into eastern OK through the afternoon and
evening, with winds resulting in very mild temps overnight...
widespread mid to upper 60s for lows. Upper level forcing associated
with approaching western trough will begin to spread across the
local forecast area later tonight with a strengthening low level jet
aiding in development of scattered to numerous mainly elevated
storms across northeast OK, with enough organization to support a
low hail threat with stronger cells.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Friday)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025

More organized severe potential then develops during the day
Saturday as a deepening shortwave rotates through base of large
scale trough moving into the central U.S. and strong deep layer wind
fields overspread unstable airmass. The current expectation is for
sufficient instability to develop across southeast OK through
western AR by early afternoon to result in robust organized
updrafts. At the high-end of possibilities is for more discrete
development ahead of the expected linear storm development, which
would result in slightly higher tornado and large hail potential,
with threat of damaging wind gusts with the more linear mode. One
mitigating factor in all this is potential for more widespread
convection to linger into part of Saturday afternoon and limit the
instability. By mid to late afternoon the threat of storms should
move off to the east.

Strong cold front is expected Saturday evening with gusty north
winds in the 25-35 mph for at least a few hours with much drier and
cooler air to follow. It will actually feel like fall Sunday
starting out with temps in the mid 40-lower 50s and highs mostly in
the upper 60s and lower 70s. Wind shift quickly back to the south
Sunday night and Monday resulting in a much warmer day Monday, with
gusty south winds through a good part of the day and lingering dry
air resulting in limited fire weather danger. Wind should relax
later in the day as another front approaches, which cools us back
down for Tuesday. The next chance for precipitation looks to be
Thu/Fri with a weak upper system moving across the plains, and
overall temperatues will be close to average.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025

VFR conditions are expected through this evening. A few showers and
thunderstorms will develop into northeast Oklahoma after midnight
tonight. This activity will become more widespread with time on
Saturday morning impacting much of eastern Oklahoma and northwest
Arkansas.  VFR to MVFR conditions are expected as the precipitation
increases, with IFR conditions in the larger storms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   67  80  49  71 /  50  60  10   0
FSM   68  81  52  71 /  10  90  30   0
MLC   68  81  49  72 /  10  80  10   0
BVO   63  79  45  70 /  60  70  10   0
FYV   65  78  44  67 /  30  90  30   0
BYV   65  77  47  64 /  20  90  40   0
MKO   67  80  48  70 /  30  80  10   0
MIO   65  78  45  67 /  60  80  20   0
F10   67  81  47  71 /  20  70  10   0
HHW   68  81  52  71 /  10  70  20   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...08