550
FXUS64 KTSA 010525
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1225 AM CDT Wed Jul 1 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1224 AM CDT Wed Jul 1 2026

 - Hot and humid weather persists through the week. Heat advisory
   headlines are in effect Wednesday for portions of the area,
   and may be needed in the days following.

 - Low chances for afternoon storms in the terrain of SE OK and NW
   AR Thursday and Friday. Low storm chances continue with a weak
   front Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1155 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

The dome of high pressure that has been holding over the southeast
U.S. the past few days will remain common through Wednesday again,
though with a slight shift east/northeast. In response, conditions
across eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas the past couple of
days are expected again Wednesday with highs in the low-mid 90s
and heat index values of mid 90s to around 105 degrees. The higher
heat index values are again anticipated within the Arkansas River
Valley of west central Arkansas and will continue the ongoing Heat
Advisory for these locations. Low temperatures Wednesday morning
and again Thursday morning in the 70s are forecast for the CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 1155 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

Thursday and Friday, the ridge of high pressure to the east is
progged to become more centered over the Ohio River Valley to the
east coast. This will allow for low level flow to become more
south southeasterly compared to southwesterly the previous few
days over the region. Slightly greater moisture advection in this
flow into the region will aid in a slight chance of storm
development with max heating both Thursday and Friday afternoons.
The higher potential for storms remains over the higher terrain of
far eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas. Gusty to locally
strong winds and brief heavy rains will be capable within any
storm each day. Across the rest of the CWA, partly cloudy skies
and temperatures continuing in the low to mid 90s are forecast
Thursday and Friday.

Over the weekend, the ridge of high pressure begins to weaken and
flatten in advance of a shortwave moving out into the Plains.
Temperatures and heat index values ahead of the shortwave and its
associated weak frontal boundary look to be a couple degrees
warmer Saturday. These conditions will continue storm chances
again Saturday afternoon, mainly for the eastern half of the CWA.
The greater chances for showers and storms for the CWA exist
Sunday into Monday with the wave and its frontal boundary moving
into the region. Like the afternoon diurnal convection, storms
Sunday into Monday could carry the potential for gusty/strong
winds and brief heavy rains.

Into early next week, ridge of high pressure begins to set up
again this time over the West/Desert Southwest. Another weak upper
level disturbance could slide down the eastern side of the ridge
into the Plains bringing additional shower/storm chances for the
CWA. At this time, temperatures toward the end of the forecast
period, still look to remain in the low/mid 90s for highs early
next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1224 AM CDT Wed Jul 1 2026

VFR conditions will continue with near persistent daily trends.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   78  95  79  96 /   0  10   0   0
FSM   78  96  78  96 /   0  20  10  20
MLC   78  94  78  95 /   0  10  10  10
BVO   77  95  77  95 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   76  92  75  93 /   0  20  10  10
BYV   74  93  73  93 /   0  20  10  20
MKO   77  94  77  94 /   0  10   0   0
MIO   75  93  75  94 /   0   0   0   0
F10   76  94  76  94 /   0  10   0   0
HHW   77  94  77  94 /   0  20  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening
     for ARZ129-219-220.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...07