788
FXUS64 KTSA 221707
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1107 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of today )
Issued at 1009 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

Surface high pressure today across the central plains
will continue to drift south and east. Winds will
generally  remain on the light side, with afternoon max
temperatures running close to what was observed yesterday.
Remaining first period elements are in line and will be left as
they are.

No update is planned at this time.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 103 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

Overnight tonight it will be cool once again, with lows of 30-35F
for most areas. By Saturday, southerly flow will develop once again,
bringing warmer and somewhat more moist air back to the area. High
temperatures will jump into the 60s, with widespread 70+ highs for
Sunday. Winds will become quite breezy on Sunday as well, with
gusts of 25-40 mph, highest north of I-40.

A fast moving trough will pass through the central Plains Sunday,
sending a cold front south and into the area Monday. However,
given that the upper level support will be quickly racing east,
this will be another dry cold front. The main impacts will be a
return to highs in the 50s and lows near freezing with a period of
breezy northerly winds. Brief upper level ridging will keep
conditions dry and at least partly sunny through Tuesday.

For the middle to end of next week, a Pacific trough will swing into
the region. Meanwhile, an amplifying ridge into Alaska will send a
second upper level trough south into the northern Plains. Ensemble
guidance has been erratic the last few days trying to figure out the
exact timing of the troughs and the degree to which they will
interact with each other. With that said, there is decent confidence
that a cold front will move through Wednesday to Thursday. The
trajectory and orientation will again limit precipitation potential,
with just a slight chance of showers for much of the area, and the
highest chances in northwest AR. Much cooler air will then advect
into the area, though ensemble guidance has generally trended warmer
for this time frame over the last day or so.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1106 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

VFR TAF elements will prevail at all sites
through the valid period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   34  65  51  72 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   35  66  46  74 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   34  68  51  74 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   30  65  47  72 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   30  65  45  71 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   33  64  46  69 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   33  65  50  73 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   32  63  47  71 /   0   0   0   0
F10   34  66  51  74 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   35  66  49  74 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...23