176
FXUS64 KTSA 061744
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1244 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1243 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026

 - Below normal temperatures through Thursday.

 - Warmer temps Friday with thunderstorm chances returning.

 - Uncertainty with frontal boundary into the weekend however
   thunderstorm chances continue.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026

Ongoing light showers southeast of Interstate 44 will end from
west to east by this evening with skies clearing for portions of
the region overnight. The result will be seasonably cold
temperatures with mid 30s possible in the coldest valleys of NE OK
and far NW AR.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Wednesday)
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026

Pleasant day Thursday with mild temperatures and sunny skies.
Winds increase Friday with a notable warm up along with initial
moisture return fetch focused through NE OK ahead of the next weak
cold front. The magnitude of moisture return is somewhat
questionable but most guidance does develop a corridor of
instability by mid afternoon along and ahead of the cold front
with minimal capping. Temps warming into the 80s and frontal
convergence will likely be sufficient to allow storms to develop
in or near NE OK by mid afternoon and spread east and
southeastward into the evening. Deep layer shear is sufficient for
storm organization and expected t/td spreads support idea of
stronger wind potential with persistent storms. Expect a rather
quick stabilization after sunset so thunderstorm chances will
diminish with southeastward extent across the forecast area Friday
evening.

The southward push of the cold front Friday night into Saturday is
more uncertain which impacts the degree of warm sector return into
the region ahead of stronger wave timed for Saturday evening and
overnight. Thunderstorm chances will accompany the passage of this
wave with any severe weather impacts determined by the warm sector
details. The northwesterly flow aloft continues across the central
CONUS through at least early next week with the pattern supportive
of additional frontal passages and periodic shower and storm
chances.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1244 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026

VFR conditions will likely prevail through the period for all sites.
Low clouds will continue to erode this afternoon, with mid and high
clouds persisting into the overnight period. Showers and embedded
thunderstorms are ongoing across SE OK and W AR, but are likely to
remain south/east of TAF sites today. Clearing skies are expected by
late Thursday morning. Northwest winds continue this afternoon
before becoming light and variable overnight. WSW winds return
Thursday morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   41  72  52  82 /   0   0   0  30
FSM   47  73  48  82 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   44  73  50  81 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   36  71  49  82 /   0   0   0  50
FYV   38  70  47  79 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   41  68  48  77 /  10   0   0   0
MKO   42  69  49  79 /   0   0   0  10
MIO   38  67  50  77 /   0   0   0  50
F10   42  71  50  80 /   0   0   0  10
HHW   50  72  51  77 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...43