712
FXUS64 KTSA 021730
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1130 AM CST Mon Feb 2 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1057 AM CST Mon Feb 2 2026

 - Warm weather today, then slightly cooler Tuesday to Wednesday behind
   a weak cold front.

 - Low rain chances Tuesday across SE OK into west- central AR,
   then a slight chance for mixed rain and snow northeast OK
   Wednesday morning.

 - Much warmer and drier weather resumes Thursday into next
   weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 1057 AM CST Mon Feb 2 2026

Temperatures will warm appreciably again today, with highs in the
mid 50s to low 60s. High clouds will increase into the afternoon,
but is not expected to keep temperatures down too much from their
potential. A weak front will begin to move through the area
overnight, with a pretty large variance in low temperatures as a
result. Lows will range from the low 30s in the north to mid 40s in
the south.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Monday)
Issued at 1057 AM CST Mon Feb 2 2026

Somewhat cooler air will spill into the area Tuesday behind the cold
front, but there is significant model spread in terms of observed
temperatures. The main uncertainties relate to the spatial extent of
low clouds as well as how long they may stick around. The most
likely outcome is probably a blend of the spread, with some low
clouds for part of the day, breaking apart in the afternoon. In this
case, high temperatures would drop about 10 degrees from today.
Model guidance continues to indicate just enough lift and moisture
return for some light showers along the front as it passes through
southeast OK and west-central AR. Total accumulation will be minimal.

A quick moving shortwave will then move through Wednesday morning.
Guidance is mostly consistent in showing a brief narrow corridor
where a few showers could develop. The best chance appears to be
across central to eastern OK, particularly the far NW tip of the
forecast area. The air will be marginally cold enough that rain
could mix with or change to snow briefly. As it looks now, the
worst case scenario appears to be a brief dusting, with no
accumulation being the most likely outcome.

Strong ridging will then develop across the Plains for the late week
period and into the weekend. Temperatures will respond, with highs
in the 50s-60s Thursday onwards. A few spots could even hit 70 F on
Friday. No additional rainfall will occur until beyond the 7 day
forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1130 AM CST Mon Feb 2 2026

VFR conditions will continue through the afternoon and evening
with only some increasing high clouds over the region. Southerly
to southwesterly winds around 10 knots will be common through the
afternoon before going generally light and variable overnight.
Increasing moisture ahead of a cold front tonight will bring in
some low clouds across SE OK into W AR with some MVFR cigs
possible by early tomorrow morning, especially for Arkansas sites.
Some vsby restrictions could also develop, though probs are too
low to mention at this time. A few showers could also develop in
these areas, but chances are also too low to mention for any
terminals currently. The front moves through tomorrow morning,
bringing a shift to northwesterly winds. Low clouds could hang
around through the morning, especially for NW AR sites, while more
low cigs could filter in behind the front across NE OK toward the
end of the period.

Bowlan

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   60  35  50  29 /   0   0   0  10
FSM   59  38  53  29 /   0  20  20   0
MLC   63  41  55  31 /   0  20   0   0
BVO   56  29  49  26 /   0   0   0  20
FYV   58  36  47  25 /   0  20  10   0
BYV   57  37  47  26 /   0  10  10   0
MKO   59  37  52  29 /   0  10   0  10
MIO   54  32  45  25 /   0   0   0  10
F10   64  37  54  30 /   0  10   0  10
HHW   60  45  59  32 /   0  30  20   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...04