976
FXUS64 KTSA 082333
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
633 PM CDT Fri Aug 8 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Fri Aug 8 2025

 - Extreme Heat Warning in effect today from until 8 PM for
   portions of northeast OK. Heat Advisory in effect for much of
   the remainder of eastern Oklahoma and west-central/ northwest
   Arkansas until 8 PM today.

 - Heat Advisory in effect for much of eastern Oklahoma and
   northwest Arkansas Saturday, from noon to 8 PM.

 - Slightly cooler temperatures and low-medium shower and
   thunderstorm chances (10-40%) late this weekend and next week
   as upper level ridging retreats to the west.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Fri Aug 8 2025

A very hot day is in store for the region as influence from mid-
upper ridging is maximized. With continued southerly flow at the
surface, dewpoints will continue to run high... generally in the
70s for much of the CWA. Combined with ambient temps in the upper
90s (perhaps cresting 100 in a few spots), heat indices will soar
into the 100-112 range. As a result, a mix of Heat Advisories and
Extreme Heat Warnings remain in effect until 8 PM this evening.
Please be sure to stay hydrated and take frequent breaks if
working outdoors this afternoon.

Aside from the heat, mostly quiet conditions are forecast through
tonight with lows in the upper 70s or lower 80s. Scattered clouds
and isolated showers continue early this afternoon but are
forecast to gradually decrease with eastward extent. Similarly,
could see some isolated showers develop again late tonight as the
LLJ strengthens atop a theta-e gradient. Any QPF for the
remainder of today and tonight is likely to be light and sparse.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Friday)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Fri Aug 8 2025

Warm overnight lows tonight will provide little relief from the
heat and set the stage for another very hot day tomorrow. The
ridge begins to flatten tomorrow through this weekend, allowing
temperatures to fall slightly. Additionally, isolated light
showers and related cloudiness is expected to be a bit more common
tomorrow morning and into the afternoon. Still, heat indices are
likely to come near or exceed advisory criteria for much of the
area. Given little opportunity for recovery tonight, opted to
issue another Heat Advisory for much of the CWA tomorrow despite
the potential inhibitors mentioned above. Additional advisories
may be required on Sunday, though HIs are likely to be more
marginal as the ridge continues to break down.

By Sunday, troughing amplifies across the central and northern
plains, sending a frontal boundary south into NW OK and SE KS.
This boundary will become a focus for showers and thunderstorms
Monday and Tuesday as shortwaves within the parent trough rotate
into the region. Negative height anomalies tend to linger around
with additional low precip chances each afternoon through the
remainder of the work week. Overall, PoPs have increased for early
next week with this forecast package as wetter conditions are
beginning to appear more likely. This has also led to a decrease
in high temperatures Monday forward. In fact, high temps my fall
to below average Tuesday and Wednesday depending on the degree of
cloud cover. Otherwise, temperatures are forecast to remain near
average through late next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 633 PM CDT Fri Aug 8 2025

VFR conditions will continue to prevail through the forecast
period. Surface winds will remain gusty through sunset this
evening before subsiding, then increase and become gusty again by
mid-morning Saturday. Gusts 20-25 knots will be common through the
afternoon, especially at the NE OK terminals. Winds aloft will
remain fairly breezy/gusty over NE OK this evening and overnight.
Maintained LLWS for BVO, TUL, and RVS through mid-morning
Saturday. A stray shower or two may impact the OK terminals during
the morning hours Saturday, but shower potential/coverage are too
low to mention in the TAFs at this time.

Mejia

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   82  99  80  97 /  10  10   0  10
FSM   78 100  77  98 /  10  10   0   0
MLC   78  98  77  96 /  10  10   0   0
BVO   78  99  76  98 /  10  10  10  10
FYV   75  96  74  95 /  10  10   0  10
BYV   75  99  74  97 /  10  10   0  10
MKO   77  98  77  96 /  10  10   0   0
MIO   79  98  77  97 /  10  10  10  10
F10   77  98  76  96 /  10  10   0   0
HHW   75  96  75  95 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ049-053-054-
     057>059-062>065-068-072>076.

     Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Saturday for OKZ049-053>068-
     070>076.

     Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ055-056-
     060-061-066-067-070-071.

AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ001-002-019-020-
     029.

     Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Saturday for ARZ001-002-019-
     020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...43
LONG TERM....43
AVIATION...67