821
FXUS64 KTSA 040020
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
720 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 634 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

  - Severe storm chances return Friday morning, especially across
    SE OK and W-Central AR.

  - Rain chances continue through the weekend with heavy rain and
    flood potential increasing, especially across SE OK and
    W-Central AR.

  - Much cooler weather arrives this weekend, with rain possibly
    changing to snow Sunday morning north of I-40. A freeze is
    expected in some locations Sunday or Monday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of this afternoon )
Issued at 132 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

Mild and showery weather will continue for the next few hours before
diminishing this evening. Scattered thunderstorms remain possible
for portions of southeast OK into northwest AR through the
afternoon. As the lower levels are quite stable and these storms
are elevated, the main threat would be marginally severe hail. Temperatures
will remain in the mid 50s for the remainder of the afternoon,
eventually falling to the upper 40s to low 50s tonight for most
locations.

The next round of rainfall will arrive overnight tonight into Friday
morning. Ahead of this rainfall, the low level boundary which is
currently south of the Red River will surge back into the area. This
will allow for deeper moisture and better instability to spread
north, though mainly across southeast OK and west-central AR.
Meanwhile, a strong low level jet will increase shear and helicity.
These factors will promote yet another severe weather threat Friday
early morning. The most likely threats will be large hail and
damaging wind, but an isolated tornado is certainly possible where
storms can become surface based, with the higher risk to the
south and east. Showers and non- severe thunderstorms will spread
through the remainder of the area by dawn. Areas of heavy rainfall
may develop, with a Flood Watch for portions of the area active
during this period.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 132 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

Widespread shower activity will be ongoing during the day Friday
with scattered thunderstorms at times. Storm activity will be most
widespread south of the boundary discussed in the short term, so
portions of southeast OK and west-central AR will see the greatest
coverage and heavier precipitation. By Friday afternoon and
evening storm coverage and intensity is expected to ramp up as
frontogenesis intensifies along the boundary. Additionally, better
forcing will arrive from the west as the main upper level trough
becomes negatively tilted. Severe storm potential will increase
for a few hours during the evening, as well as the flood
potential.

Heavy rainfall will be more or less continuous for areas under the
Flood Watch Friday afternoon through Saturday. This will occur with
excellent diffluence aloft leading to deep ascent. Meanwhile, near
record max precipitable water and integrated vapor transport (above
the 99th percentile relative to climatology) along with solid
instability will result in efficient precipitation processes. EPS
EFI values for precipitation for this period reach 0.9 for
portions of the area, which implies a very unusual event. Heavy
rain continues into Saturday, with moderate precipitation
spreading back north across the rest of the forecast area.
Additional rainfall of 1-3" for northeast OK, and 3-6" elsewhere
is still expected. A few localized areas may see up to 8" of
rainfall. Obviously this will result in both a river and flash
flood potential. Several rivers are expected to reach minor to
moderate flood stage. Those who are impacted by river flooding
should be paying careful attention to the forecast. By Saturday,
cooler air will be filtering in, with only a very marginal risk of
severe weather. Gusty northerly winds will reach speeds of 30-40
mph, so a Wind Advisory may eventually be needed.

Finally, the upper level low will will eject across the area
Saturday night into Sunday with a stout trowal developing within the
"wraparound" portion of the storm, This final band of heavy
precipitation will mostly track north of I-40, though some
uncertainty exists with respect to the exact placement and
intensity. Forecast soundings actually indicate a borderline snow
setup with melting snow diabatically cooling the column from near
700 hPa to the surface to near freezing. In theory, this could
result in a few hours of mixed or even all snow in a few locations.
In particular, high elevation locations would be more favorable to
pick up brief snow. Given the time of year and recent weather,
the surface is quite warm. This would make actual accumulation
very difficult, but its not out of the question a few spots could
see a brief dusting of snow to maybe a slushy inch on grassy or
elevated surfaces Sunday morning. Travel impacts are very unlikely.
With the cool airmass in place, a frost or freeze may occur for
many areas north of I-40 Sunday or especially Monday morning.

Temperatures will slowly moderate into the middle of next week with
no additional rainfall expected. High temperatures may reach the
upper 70s to near 80F by Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 720 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

A very complex aviation forecast over the next 24 hours. Flying
conditions will deteriorate tonight as ceilings progressively
lower from VFR/MVFR to MVFR/IFR to eventually widespread IFR
through the period. After a short lull in precipitation late this
evening, widely scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
are expected to redevelop and spread into the forecast area from
the southwest late tonight into early Friday morning, with
precipitation chances persisting through much of the TAF period.
First round of moderate to heavy thunderstorms will push through
during the morning hours, with scattered showers lingering into
the afternoon. Another round of intense thunderstorms will develop
mostly across far eastern OK and northwest AR by mid- late
afternoon. Reductions in visibilities are likely with the more
intense thunderstorm activity. Winds will initially start out of
the northeast, then will gradually back out of the north with time
at most TAF sites.

Mejia

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   60  51  59  46 /  90  60  90  80
FSM   65  55  70  55 /  90  70 100 100
MLC   62  53  65  49 /  90  80 100  90
BVO   61  48  58  43 /  90  60  90  70
FYV   63  51  66  48 /  90  60 100  90
BYV   60  50  64  48 /  90  40 100 100
MKO   61  52  61  47 /  90  60  90  90
MIO   57  50  58  45 /  90  40  90  80
F10   61  51  59  47 / 100  70  90  90
HHW   64  57  69  53 / 100  80  90 100

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch from 1 AM CDT Friday through Sunday morning for
     OKZ049-053-063-068>076.

AR...Flood Watch from 1 AM CDT Friday through Sunday morning for
     ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...67